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We've got some Thursday night NASCAR for y'all this week, with the Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway! Let's talk about some prop picks for this one!
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Game 1: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2): Kyle Busch (less than 16.5) and Denny Hamlin (more than 16.5)
If you read this piece last week, you saw me express some skepticism about Denny Hamlin on 1.5-mile tracks, because he hasn't done a great job at them in 2020 relative to his performance at other tracks.
So, after a 20th place finish for Hamlin at Texas, why am I higher on him this week?
For one, Hamlin did run well at times on Sunday, leading 11 laps and running top 15 for 79.6 percent of the race. For another, Hamlin finally had his breakthrough moment at Kansas last time we were here, leading 153 laps and winning. After years of inconsistency -- which did feature a 2012 win here -- Hamlin seems to have turned the page at the track, with three top fives in the last five races here.
I'm ready to ride with Hamlin.
As for Busch, a fourth place finish at Texas helped him get back into the top 10 in points. He had the third-highest driver rating in that race.
But Kansas. Busch has an average finish of 16.3 here. The only tracks with a worst average finish: the Charlotte road course, Daytona, Michigan, and Talladega. Two of those are unpredictable plate tracks. One is a place where there's been two races.
Kansas, though, has a 24 race sample for Busch, but has featured only 11 top 10s. He has a win and seven top fives, but overall Busch has struggled at this track relative to his overall performance. I think it's a good call to fade him this Thursday and to go with the under.
Game 2: Rapidfire (2/2): Kevin Harvick over Martin Truex Jr. (+1.5), Denny Hamlin (+0.5) over Kyle Busch
Kevin Harvick vs. Martin Truex Jr. is an incredibly interesting battle this week. I went with Harvick, even though Truex comes with +1.5, for a few reasons.
First, before the second race here last year, Harvick had been on a laps led crusade here. Since the second race in 2016, he's led the following number of laps at this track: 74, 10, 37, 79, 76, 104.
Truex led 33 laps in the last race here, but just 13 combined in the three races prior to that. Let's not pretend Truex has been a slouch here, but Harvick has been more consistent at this track lately, and I think that's a trend that continues.
The next reason: Harvick has been better in 2020. Four wins and 691 laps led, while Truex has one win and 410 laps led.
Both of these drivers have the potential to win this race, but Harvick's the better bet. He also starts on the pole, giving him an easy chance to take a quick lead and rack up the laps led from the start. This is Harvick's first time on the pole this year, but in 2019 his laps led from the pole were: 88 at Vegas, 30 at Richmond, 104 at Kansas (which is, well, this track!), 62 at Pocono, and 119 at Texas. Harvick's really good at getting clean air and staying up front when he starts from that first position.
As for the Hamlin/Busch contest, you can scroll up and read my analysis of the other contest to see why I'm taking Hamlin over Busch, even if Hamlin didn't come with the extra half-point. But if you only scrolled down here for some reason without reading the first half -- which, like, why would you do that??? -- then here's a quick ;tldr: this is Busch's second-worst "normal" race track. Hamlin has been improving here. The end.
Really, the end. This article is over. Good luck with your prop bets!
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