RADIO
And we're back! The NASCAR Cup Series returned to action last Sunday, with Kevin Harvick winning at Darlington. It returned again on Wednesday, with Denny Hamlin winning a rain-shortened race that was also held at Darlington.
Now, it's time to get back to something that's even more normal: Memorial Day weekend with the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Sure, we don't get to watch the traditional Memorial Day triple-header of Formula 1's Monaco Grand Prix, Indy Racing's Indianapolis 500, and then the 600 to cap the night off.
We only get that NASCAR race in 2020, but hey -- it's a race happening on the day it was originally scheduled at the length it was originally scheduled for, so things might feel almost normal, minus the whole "fans in the stands" thing. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions: @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Coca-Cola 600
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups, including this weekly YouTube video:
Roush Racing Had Long Run Speed Here In 2019
Two drivers to keep an eye on this weekend are the Roush Fenway duo of Chris Buescher and Ryan Newman.
Newman returned to the track at Darlington after an accident at Daytona that left many worried if he'd ever be able to pilot a stock car again, collecting a 15th and 14th place finish in the pair of races. Buescher is in his first year with Roush and finished 32nd and 23rd in the Darlington races.
So, why should we care? Because last year, Newman and then-Roush driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. both showed a ton of speed at the 600.
Stenhouse was 11th in average speed rank and gained speed on long runs, ranking eighth in 30 lap average. Newman was only 19th in average speed rank, but improved to 12th on 30 lap average. These cars showed an ability to build speed as runs went on, which led to a fifth-place run for Stenhouse. Newman wasn't quite as good, finishing 18th.
Stenhouse is replaced by Buescher, who took the underfunded JTG-Daugherty 37 car to a sixth-place finish in last year's 600. I'm really interested in the mix of Buescher -- four top 20 finishes in six career Cup races at the track despite not having a top ride --and the long-run speed we saw from Roush last year.
This Is A Race Of Attrition And Unpredictability
In the period of time that our data covers -- which admittedly includes some 500-mile races at Charlotte from before the second visit here became a road course race -- the track ranks 21st of 24 tracks in average laps finished percentage. Racing 100 miles more than usual puts a lot of added stress on engines, plus it's 100 more miles worth of chances for parts to break and drivers to wreck.
So, what's this mean for you in DFS contests? That unpredictability is going to skew some things this week, making all of our lives tougher. And while engine failures continue to become less common in Cup cars, anything can happen in a race this long.
For example, the 600 seems to be a great place for unexpected drivers to finish well. One of Chris Buescher's three Top 10 finishes last year came in this race. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got Top 10s here in each of the last two seasons. Austin Dillon won here in 2017! The point is, you might need to have a few more wildcards in your lineup this week. You also might need to set more lineups than usual, as more of the top drivers have chances of falling out of this race.
A Clear Top-Three At Intermediate Tracks
Looking at average driver ratings, a clear top three emerges. Kevin Harvick (117.6), Martin Truex Jr. (115.5), and Kyle Busch (108.8) are the only drivers with a rating over 100 at intermediate tracks, and only Joey Logano (97.9) has a rating over 95. Contrast that with short/flat tracks (seven drivers over 95) or large/flat tracks (six drivers over 95, and five over 100) and you can see that there's a pretty large gap on this kind of track between the top drivers and the field.
Harvick's rating at this type of track is eight percent over his average, and Truex's is seven percent better. Those two in particular hold a big advantage at these kinds of tracks, and it should be no surprise that Truex has won three of the last six races at Charlotte, including two 600s. Sometimes, you have to acknowledge that the favorites are the favorites for a reason. Truex is a machine at intermediate tracks. Harvick is too, but has done better at the other intermediate tracks than he has at Charlotte lately. Busch won the 2018 Coca-Cola 600. It'd be smart to have one of these three as your top-priced DFS option on Sunday, with Truex leading the way slightly in my hypothetical lineup if I had to make just one.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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