RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Denny Hamlin has the best Odds and highest Implied Odds to win at Kansas this week. He has won two of the last three races at the site. The fact that he starts 20th gives him obvious place differential upside. Hamlin has everything you want in a DFS driver this week. He can move through the pack easily and contend for the win while providing high PD impact at the same time. He is projected to score the second-most Fantasy Points this week. Hamlin is the third highest priced driver on DraftKings but is he top overall DFS option for the Buschy McBusch Race 400. He should be the prime anchor of your best lineups this week.
-Tyler Reddick has a 45 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10, which are outstanding odds for a driver priced at under $7000 on DraftKings. The Projections indicate he has a very good chance of finishing around his starting position of 11th. He has the best Projected Value (5.14) of any driver proced below $8500. Reddick finished 13th in the first Kansas race last season. As noted in the 1.5 Mile Results category, Reddick has finished in the Top 10 in 40 percent of his starts on the track type.
Projections
-Kyle Larson and Joey Logano are the obvious top Place Differential plays this week, and there may be instances where you have to decide between the two of them. Larson starts 32nd and Logano starts 29th, and they are the two highest priced drivers on DraftKings. The projections allow for some variance in the finishes, but Larson is projected to finish sixth and Logano seventh. The drivers are only $200 apart in terms of pricing. The determining factor when choosing between the two, though, is that Larson is projected to score over nine points more than Logano. He is also a slightly better Projected Value, at 7.07 to 6.36. You should go heavy on these two separately in multiple lineups. Front-loading with both of them could force you to get into very low territory on the pricing ladders for your final spot or two in the lineup.
-There is no doubt that Kyle Busch has been a disappointment so far this season. He has one Top 5 finish in his last six races. But his performances are reflected in his friendly DK price of $8600 for the Buschy McBusch Race 400. Busch starts eighth and is projected to finish right around his starting position. He is projected to score 46.70 points,, which is the most of any driver under $9000. His Projected Value of 5.43 is also the best in the Sub-$9000 range. He has 66 percent odds of finishing in the Top 10. Busch has finished in the Top 5 in 3 of his last 4 Kansas starts, so he could easily rediscover his better form this week at a track where he has a good history. Besides, how could you NOT used a driver named Busch in an event named the Buschy McBusch Race 400?!!!
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
This category helps us pinpoint two good value plays for Kansas this week. Cole Custer has 18.7 Fantasy Points Gained compared to others in his range at this site. In his last two Cup races at Kansas, he has finished 14th and seventh. He is not going to be widely rostered this week because he starts 10th, and by nature, many DFS NASCAR players will fear that he will fall further from his starting position and cost them PD points. That makes Custer both a quality value option and a contrarian play. You can balance any perceived PD losses, which may not be much at all, when you put him in the same lineups with drivers such as Larson and Logano.
Erik Jones has 17.9 FPs Gained vs. Similar Drivers at Kansas. Plus, he is a very good PD option this week starting from 27th. He is projected to score 37.35 points, which is the most of any driver below $8500. Jones has been another disappointment this season, with just two Top 10 finishes and no Top 5 showings. But he does have three Top 7 finishes in his last four Kansas starts and he has the potential to at least finish in the Top 15 at a track where he has delivered some good recent results.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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