RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Martin Truex Jr. has the best odds and implied odds of winning the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway. The Research Station gives him 22 percent odds of ending up in Victory Lane and claiming his second consecutive win. Truex is the only driver that has multiple wins this season. He is the best candidate to be a dominator at DIS this week. Truex claims Dover is his favorite track because he grew up not too far away in New Jersey. The only hesitation you may have about using Truex is that he will likely be heavily rostered. Don’t let that perception lead to overthinking it and fading him. Differentiate your lineups by using unique combinations in the other slots around Truex.
-Ryan Blaney has been a disappointment so far this season outside of his win at Atlanta. He has only two Top 5 finishes in his 12 starts. But he has not been totally terrible, as Blaney has placed in the Top 11 in eight of his nine starts. He has not been a top contender as often as expected, but such results are reflected in his current $8400 price tag on DraftKings. Blaney has a 61 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10, according to the Research Station. That’s the best implied odds of any driver under $8500. Blaney can certainly finish near his starting position of seventh and looks to be a solid play that may not be widely rostered.
Projections
-Outside of Truex, Denny Hamlin is the best play for pure value this week (6.08), according to the Research Station. He starts on the front row, and is projected to finish second. Keep in mind that the projections allow some variance for finishing position. Hamlin has a very good chance of finishing in the Top 3 based on what we see in the numbers this week. Hamlin is the defending champion of this event and finished in the Top 5 in both Dover races last season.
-Cole Custer is projected to score 42.80 Fantasy Points this week, which is the most of any driver $8000 below on DraftKings. The Research Station indicates he is a superb Place Differential play for the Drydene 400. Custer starts 30th and is projected to finish 16th. Custer finished 10th and 11th in the two DIS races last season. The percentage of Laps in the Top 15 category is another statistic that strongly suggests Custer is due to finish significantly higher from he starts. Custer has spent 85 percent of his laps in the Top 15 at Dover International Speedway.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Daniel Suarez has 10.1 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers at Dover. That is the most of any driver under $7700. Suarez is projected to finish 20th from a starting position of 20th, but this category suggests he could push to finish a few spots higher. That makes Suarez a very appealing bargain play at $6300. Ross Chastain also has 9.9 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers at Dover. He is projected to finish 18th, which is a respectable outlook for a driver priced at $6500.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistics, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season long DR and with very similar starting positions. In recent events at DIS, Kyle Larson surpasses all other drivers in this category with a 21.4 mark. He won his most recent race at the site in 2019 and finished third in the first event at the site this season. Its is obvious that the move to Hendrick Motorsports has boosted Larson to more of an elite level than ever before, and he has the second best odds and implied odds to win this week. In lineups where Truex is not your priciest driver, you should have heavy Larson exposure.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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