RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Kyle Larson has the best odds and implied odds (20 percent) to win at Darlington Raceway this week. He is the most expensive driver on the DraftKings ladder, and a bit cheaper on FanDuel. On either site, he should be anchoring your most important lineups. Larson has finished in the Top 4 in three of his last four starts on intermediate tracks, as indicated in the intermediate track finishes category. He starts 14th and is projected to finish fifth, and the projections allow for some variance. Regardless, Larson should contend for a top spot and has some built-in possible Place Differential production. He is also projected to score the most Fantasy Points this week by a long shot (78.85).
-Tyler Reddick has a 43 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10, which are outstanding odds for a driver priced at under $7500 on DraftKings. We recommended Reddick last week, indicating he could finish around his starting position of 11th, and he placed seventh at Kansas. We are going back to Reddick again this week, as he has finished in the Top 7 in two of his last four starts on intermediate tracks. If you scroll to the right to the DraftKings Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers category, he has a pretty good mark of 10.7. While other DFS players veer more to Place Differential targets, stick with Reddick, who can boost your outlook with another Top 10 finish (42 percent of his finishes on intermediate tracks have been in the Top 10).
Projections
-Kevin Harvick is projected to score the second-most Fantasy Points this week (54.10), but we cannot simply focus heavily on past results when making our lineup selections. Recent momentum is important too, and Harvick did not have much of it until the last two weeks. He is starting to display his better form again, though, coming into Darlington off a fourth place finish at Talladega and a second place showing at Kansas. Harvick starts second and is projected to place sixth, with the variance indicating he could finish around his high starting position. This is a very good time to target Harvick at a DraftKings price of $9600. He’s a good value play among the more notable drivers this week.
-Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is projected to score 40.15 Fantasy Points this week, which puts him clearly ahead of any drivers below $8000 on DraftKings. He starts 28th and is projected to finish 16th, and he is one of the better Place Differential targets for the Goodyear 400. Stenhouse has finished in the Top 13 in four of his last five intermediate starts. There are always obvious crash concerns with “Wrecky Spinhouse”, but he has been able to finish 90 percent of his laps 91 percent of the time on intermediate tracks.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. But as already pointed out, we cannot just look at results from past seasons when targeting our DFS NASCAR picks here, A driver’s momentum this season, especially lately, also comes into play, That is why we have not recommended Harvick in this space until this week, as he has recorded some impressive numbers in the past at many tracks this year, but was not living up to his history until the last two events. The same approach applies to for Erik Jones, who has by far the best Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers (28.6) at Darlington. He shines in more than one category in the Research Station (Average Running Position of 8.4, for example). But Jones only has Two Top 10 finishes this season, no Top 5s and has not placed in the Top 15 in his last four Cup races The move to Richard Petty Motorsports has dimmed Jones’ DFS outlook for now.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
This is another category that is a prime one for pinpointing value selections. It uncovers Kurt Busch as a viable play for the Goodyear 400. Busch has 19.3 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers at Darlington. Only Jones has more among drivers under $9000 on DraftKings. Busch starts 17th and is projected to finish 12th, so he has some promise for Place Differential and a respectable finish for a friendly DK price of $8400. Busch has been underwhelming recently but is still very capable of making a push for the Top 10 at any time.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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