RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series is doing something it's never done before this weekend: running a doubleheader.
The idea was planned before COVID-19 and was a way of saving Pocono from dropping down to just one race. Xfinity ran a Homestead doubleheader with a lot of success, which suggests that this weekend should work and should be a ton of fun NASCAR action.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)" @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Pocono Organics 325
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. You can also check out our YouTube video:
Top Fantasy Values At Pocono
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
This week, the drivers who I'm most interested in on each site because of their projected value are:
DraftKings: Erik Jones ($7,100 / 6.65 FP/$)
Jones is having an interesting season. He's got three finishes in the 20s in the last four races and has posted a top 10 average running position just twice this season. At this point in his career, he should be performing better than he is. He ranks 17th in points, which is his worst mark since his rookie season.
But hey, he's also driving a Joe Gibbs Toyota and is coming to one of his best racetracks. Jones has run six Cup Series races here, and he's finished in the top 10 in five of them. In fact, he's got four top fives here, including three consecutive ones. This should be Erik Jones's best race of the 2020 season.
FanDuel: Christopher Bell ($8,000 / 5.89 FP/$)
Speaking of inconsistency, Christopher Bell's rookie season! Only three top 10s in 13 races for the Leavine Family Racing driver, although his results seem to be trending in the right direction, with two of those top 10s in the last five races.
Bell finished fifth in the Xfinity race here last season and won in his last Truck Series start at the track. I don't think he does quite so well on Saturday, but with an extremely far back starting spot -- 36th -- he has a lot of upside. DraftKings has Bell as their most expensive driver since place differential is a little more valuable there, but FanDuel has him buried pretty far back in pricing, making him a much better value there.
Pocono Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
In the July race here, Erik Jones had a 111.0 driver rating, but I want to do something unorthodox here and talk about a driver who actually isn't racing on Saturday: Daniel Hemric.
In that race, Hemric had the eighth-best driver rating and an average running position of 11th, with 88.3 percent of his laps run in the top 15.
I bring this up to say that this year, an arguably better driver is in that Richard Childress Racing Car. Tyler Reddick could be a solid pick this week based on how this team ran last year, as well as the fact that Reddick finished second in the Xfinity race here in 2019.
As for the June race, Kyle Busch had a 147.6 driver rating, which was way, way more than the second-best rating, Clint Bowyer at 114.4. Busch's average position in that race was fourth. He had 49 fastest laps. He was dominant.
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Early Run Speed In 2020
This is a much shorter race than we usually get at Pocono -- 325 miles to the usual 400 --, so I'm thinking shorter run speed will be more important than ever.
So, let's look at some short run speed numbers for this season.
Chase Elliott has been the fastest driver early in runs this year. Three Hendrick drivers are in the top 10 in early run speed, but the one who isn't is Jimmie Johnson, who is way back in 16th.
Erik Jones, who I just keep talking up, is 13th in early run speed, which is fine. It's not going to make me fade him.
Some drivers I would be concerned about: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is 25th in early run speed. Cole Custer is 27th. Ty Dillon is 31st. I would be concerned about those guys.
Kyle Busch is only 15th, by the way. He's fifth in late run speed. With some shorter stages early on, Busch might not be in the position to dominate like he did here last year.
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