RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Kyle Larson has by far the best Implied Odds to win at Atlanta for the first time ever this week at 25 percent. He should obviously be a lock in many of your lineups every week and how you build around him will set your lineups apart in tournaments rather than fading him because of heavy projected rostering by competitors. Kyle Busch has the next best Implied Odds at 10 percent. He is coming on strong, with two wins and a runner-up showing in his last three starts. Busch has finished in the Top 3 in his four of his last six starts on 1.5 mile tracks and placed in the Top 5 in five of those starts.
-The Research Station gives Tyler Reddick a 36 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10, which is by far the best percentage of any driver below $8000 on DraftKings. Reddick starts seventh, and there may be perceptions that he will not be able to finish near his starting position. He is projected to be 16 percent rostered, and Reddick starts seventh. Reddick has three Top 12 finishes in his last four starts on 1.5 mile tracks. It would not be surprising to see Reddick finish near his starting position, which would mean you get a Top 10 finish from a driver priced at $7100.
Projections
-William Byron is projected to score 58.40 points, which is the third most of any driver overall. He starts 19th, and is projected to finish sixth, which makes him a very strong Place Differential play. Keep in mind that the projected finishes do allow for some variance, so it’s very possible Byron could finish in the Top 5. Byron has finished in the Top 4 in his last three starts on 1.5 mile tracks. Byron finished eighth at Atlanta Motor Speedway in March, and could better that showing this time.
-Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is projected to score 32.85 points, which makes him a very good value play at $6600 on DraftKings. Stenhouse starts 16th and is projected to finish near his starting position. He has finished sixth and 12th in his last two starts on 1.5 mile tracks. Stenhouse finished 12th and 13th in his last two starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. His Recent Driver Rating of 83.0 at AMS is by far the best of any driver priced below $8400.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Kevin Harvick has been frustrating this season, but AMS is his best track and he is a strong PD play as he starts 21st. This is one of the best weeks to use Harvick, as he has 25.9 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers all-time at Atlanta, which leads all drivers. His 25.1 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent races at AMS is second only to Larson. Harvick is projected to score 60.20 points this week, second only to Larson.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistic, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season long DR and with very similar positions. This week, the category is telling us to consider Ryan Newman at a bargain tag of $6100. He has a 10.0 Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent AMS races, and 8.8 overall. He is the only driver below $8000 which such respectable marks. Newman starts 29th and has finished in the Top 15 in his last three Atlanta starts.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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