RADIO
A weekend of NASCAR racing at Phoenix concludes on Sunday with the Ruoff Mortgage 500.
Last week at Vegas, Alex Bowman went to victory lane. Ross Chastain had a strong run, leading 83 laps and finishing third. The new generation of NASCAR car seems to have worked in terms of evening the playing field, as Corey LaJoie ended up with a top 15 and seven different drivers led at least 10 laps.
Below are some drivers to consider for DFS purposes this week. If you have any questions or want to talk NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Kyle Larson
Starts 7th - DraftKings $11,800 | FanDuel $14,500
Kyle Larson won the last time the Cup Series was here, leading 107 laps to win the 2021 championship.
Phoenix has been an interesting place for Larson. He's finished seventh or better in the last six taces here, but before November, led just three laps in that span. Of course, he wasn't in a Hendrick car for most of that. Now he is.
Larson has been fast this year. He's been top 10 in speed this week in practice and qualifying, and it'll only be a matter of time before Larson gets up front. His salary makes him risky, but he's someone who could lead 100 laps and win this thing. You've got to have some exposure to him for this reason.
After writing all that, Larson was announced as having to start at the rear. I think that adds too much risk.
There are some really good cars that cost less than Larson and start in a nice range for some place differential. Kyle Busch starts 11th. Joey Logano 10th. Martin Truex Jr. 20th. Those are all solid pivots off of Larson, and could help you afford some plays like Ross Chastain or A.J. Allmendinger instead of some of the cheaper value plays. Wouldn't you rather pair Allmendinger and Truex for less than pairing Larson and Cole Custer? Now that there isn't a viable path to Larson leading early, and since he'll be scored from seventh still, I'd lean away from him.
Chase Elliott
Starts 19th - DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $12,500
Elliott hasn't been himself this season, leading just 12 laps so far and having a best finish of ninth.
But even with Elliott being a little off, you've got to play him for the place differential points when he's starting 19th. He's one of the sport's best drivers. He's driving for a top team. And he's at a track where he's won before.
In fact, over the past four races here, you can argue that no one has been as good as Elliott. His worst finish was seventh, with a win and a pair of fifths. He led 90-plus laps in three of those four races. He also led 104 laps back in 2017 here.
This is a good track for Elliott to break his mini-slump and get his first top five of 2022.
Ryan Blaney
Starts 1st - DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $11,000
Blaney has been super quick this weekend. At $9,600, he feels like a steal when you factor in that he'll have clean air to start the race, giving him a shot to lead a lot of early laps plus get some fastest laps in there.
This 12 car was really good here in 2021. In the first race, Blaney only finished 10th, but led 35 laps. In the second one, he finished fourth and led 33 laps.
The Racing Reference loop data also shows that he had 14 fastest laps in the spring and another 13 of them in the fall.
Blaney has a better chance than anyone else does of dominating this race.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Starts 36th - DraftKings $7,000 | FanDuel $7,300
This is the chalkiest play of the day.
Stenhouse has been quick all season, though getting into incidents in two of the three races has hurt his overall numbers. But when he's got things going right, this appears to be a top 10 car — finished 10th at Fontana, then led four laps at Vegas before mechanical issues surfaced and he faded to 21st.
Mechanical issues struck again Saturday, as an engine issue led to the team not making a qualifying lap. But a new Hendrick engine plus a last-place starting spot means that there could be a TON of place differential points for this 47 car on Sunday.
Justin Haley
Starts 28th - DraftKings $6,000 | FanDuel $4,500
No, Kaulig Racing hasn't started its first full-time Cup Series season off with the kind of results you might expect from a team that won a race last year when it was running part-time. Still, Haley finished 12 spots above where he started at Fontana and 11 at Vegas. This 31 is better on race day than on qualifying day.
In the Xfinity Series, Haley has never led a lap here, but he does have four top 10s in six starts, which includes a pair of fifth-place finishes. Should finish between 15th and 20th if he runs a clean race.
Todd Gilliland
Starts 33rd - DraftKings $4,900 | FanDuel $2,500
Definitely my top punt play this week. Gilliland has struggled to show speed in qualifying, with his best start being 26th. But at Fontana, he finished six spots ahead of where he started and at Vegas, seven spots. He hasn't started as deep as 33rd yet this season, so if Gilliland can just run the kind of race he's been running, he can finish just outside the top 20, which offers some solid place differential upside from this starting spot.
Also relevant here: in five Truck Series starts at this track, Gilliland has three top 10s, including top 10s in both Truck Series races he ran here for Front Row Motorsports. I expect a solid day for the 38.
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