RADIO
We’re closing in on the halfway mark of the NBA regular season. Enough games have been played to show how well players are fitting into new teams and new roles. Some players have been exceeding expectations and producing enormous fantasy value for their owners. But as fantasy fanatics, we want to know more than just how a player will do during a short period of time.
Today I want to look at how players that are outperforming expectations will hold out long term. Are improvements subject to a team situation with injuries (a perfect storm) or is the shown improvement a sustainable increase in expected value for the coming months and next season (Most Improved Player implications?!)
In order to quantify expectations, we are using ADP (Average Draft Position) from FantasyPros, which averages the pre-draft ADPs from Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS rankings. If a player’s season-long ranking according to BasketballMonster is significantly higher than his ADP, then they are a candidate for discussion. Because there are more than a handful of players this season that match this description, the discussion will be broken up into two parts. This week, we will discuss Lou Williams, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Vucevic. Next week, we will peer into the evolution of Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, and Josh Richardson. Let’s begin.
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ADP Out-Performers, Part I
BBM Rank: 41 // ’17-’18 ADP: 88
Lou has been balling with the Clippers this season: averaging 15.3 shot attempts per game, shooting a career high from 3, and distributing at a career high assist average. He’s currently averaging 31.3 minutes per game, also a career high. He has seen a lot of movement from team to team in years past, as he’s a perennial trade piece for his off-the-bench scoring value. His rankings over the past three seasons have been 71, 106, and 76. His value as the 44th best player in fantasy right now is due to his skill, but also the number of injuries affecting the Clippers roster. The only member of the starting lineup that hasn’t been hurt is DeAndre Jordan. Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverly, Danilo Gallinari, Austin Rivers, and Milos Teodosic have all been hurt or are out for the season. The responsibility for scoring falls heavily on Williams’s shoulders.
Lou is the best example of the perfect storm beneficiary – his value is topping out because of his situation, but should stay relatively similar stats-wise. Even with the loss of backcourt players, the Clippers have a deep bench roster for guards, pulling players like Jawun Evans, CJ Williams, and Sindarius Thornwell to play minutes. The return of injured players means that these back-up guards will see less minutes and Lou Williams will continue to see similar minutes. He currently still comes off the bench and leads the second unit, having only started in 7 out of 35 games for the Clippers. Although Lou is outperforming, his situation is relatively set and he’s a dependable asset that understands his defined role.
BBM Rank: 64 // ’17-’18 ADP: 139
Gibson is another player shining on a new team. He has seen an increase in minutes averaging 33.6 minutes per game. He has started every game this season and, although he’s the 5th option on the starting lineup, he plays a heavy role in the Timberwolves’ sparse front court. In the past three seasons, Gibson has shown rankings of 146, 99, and 112, so this jump is a bit of a surprise. Gibson has seen an increase in rebounds, field goal percentage, and free throw attempts. He’s being used on the interior more and gets 45.6% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket. Gibson is excelling stats-wise because of his team.
However, unlike Lou Williams’s rank, I feel like Gibson’s current ranking is fraudulent. Over the past two weeks, his ranking has fallen. As Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns start to dominate more games offensively, Gibson will see less clear value in fantasy. Also, with the return of Nemanja Bjelica, the other Timberwolves power forward, Gibson will see a decrease in minutes. Taj Gibson has seen a drop in usage rate from 19.5% in OKC to 14.2% in Minnesota, yet his offensive rating has leaped from 104 to 123. I obviously don’t believe that this jump is sustainable. His value primarily shows in rebounds and field goal percentage, and both of those categories are threatened by impending changes. Gibson is worth holding onto, but I would expect a dip in value over the coming months.
BBM Rank: 16 // ’17-’18 ADP: 53.3
Vucevic is far from a household name, especially playing for Orlando. It’s not surprising that he’s overlooked for his consistent growth and value over the past few seasons. The past three seasons he showed rankings of 48, 27, and 22. The current season has seen flashes of brilliance from Vucevic. He is shooting more 3s now, going from averaging 1 three-point attempt per game to averaging 4.1 three-point attempts. As he begins to shoot with better percentages, his points per game will also increase. The big changes for Vucevic other than his three-point shooting is that his field goal shooting percentage has stabilized from its dip last year and he’s shooting much better at the line, averaging 82.1%. Vucevic can consistently provide at least a three, a steal, and a block from night to night, which is rare for a big man.
The Orlando Magic currently sit in 2nd to last place in the Eastern Conference and with many of their starters hurt, they are close to being in tank mode. Pair that with the fact that Vucevic has taken sole possession of the big man role, and Vucevic looks like a intriguing long-term asset in fantasy basketball. The concern is obviously his injury: he is out with a fractured hand until mid-February. However, owners should hold tight to Vucevic. The injury is to his non-shooting hand and he should be able to continue conditioning all the way until his hand is better, meaning he shouldn’t see a minutes limitation upon return. Vucevic’s rank is the real deal – he is a center that’s lengthened his offensive game and can average close to a double-double while filling up the stats sheet.
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