RADIO
The play-in tournament concludes tonight with the Grizzlies and Warriors battling it out for the final spot (8th seed) in the Western Conference playoffs.
Tomorrow, we get back to some normalcy with a four-game slate, but for today it's another set of showdown/single-game contests. including a 100k to first place in the $7.77 NBA Shot Machine tournament on FanDuel.
Here are my favorite plays from tonight's game for the FanDuel single-game slate that locks at 9 PM EST.
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Memphis Grizzlies (+4) at Golden State Warriors (220.5 total)
The Warriors are 3rd in pace while the Grizzlies are 8th so there should be plenty of possessions and opportunities to accumulate those fantasy goodies. These teams just played on Sunday with the Warriors 113-101 victors at home. Memphis was 20-16 on the road while Golden State was 25-11 at home during the season.
In the other two meetings during the regular season, Stephen Curry did not play. Speaking of Curry, he went for 66.9 FD points on Sunday and should be in the MVP slot, as he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. The usage rate over the last five games has been 35, 50, 32, 40, and 48. No one in this game is approaching a usage rate in the same area code.
Jonas Valanciunas is coming off a 23-point, 23-rebound game with three blocks against the Spurs on Wednesday, good for a whopping 61.1 FD points. In the prior five games, he went for 51.7, 45.1, 51.2, 57.7, and 45.2 FD points so Wednesday's game wasn't an outlier. He's been on quite the heater and the 51.7-game was against these same Warriors. An argument can be made for utilizing him in the MVP slot as the ownership percentage will be much lower. That said, on the season, the Warriors did neutralize the FPPM to centers by 15.61% below the league average so it will be interesting to see how this matchup plays out. Was Sunday's game an aberration for Valanciunas or will this heater continue?
I'm not really considering anyone else for the MVP slot outside of Curry and Valanciunas as they will likely be the two highest raw point producers. As a matter of fact, it's Curry for MVP with Valanciunas in the Star slot.
Constructing the rest of the lineup seemed pretty straightforward. My value player is Kevon Looney, who will be needed to neutralize the beef of Valanciunas. He averaged 0.78 FD points per minute during the season but against the Grizzlies on Sunday, he played 31 minutes, and minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe! Now, he's a super low usage player and scored in double figures just three times all season. He's all about the rebounds and you're praying for some defensive stats. Am I enamored with this play? No, but he's the only one below $10,000 who I feel comfortable will play over 30 minutes.
Jaren Jackson and Andrew Wiggins filled out the lineup. Jackson just needs to stay healthy and out of foul trouble. In the 12 games he's played since being activated, he's finished with five fouls in six of those contests. Jackson contributes the defensive stats and stretches the floor for Morant and Valanciunas. He averaged 1.26 FD points per minute during the regular season and put up 26.8 in 30 minutes against the Spurs and 38.4 FD points in 31 minutes against the Warriors.
Wiggins garners a 23 percent usage rate. He confounds because there are times when he's an unstoppable offensive force. Then there are other times when he just hangs out on the perimeter checking out the crowd or settling for low-percentage shots. He averages 0.96 FD points and has played 39, 37, and 40 minutes over the last three games. More than likely, he's going to score in the mid-to-high 30 FD range but he has gone above 40 13 times this season with a high of 65.6, so there is upside.
There are two players I'd replace Curry and Valanciunas for in order to get leverage and be different.
Wiggins is one while the other player is Ja Morant. He averages 1.08 FD points per minute and will likely score in the 30s. The usage rate is in the 28 percent range and he's popped off for some monster games this season - 61.8, 61.5, 71.6, and 67.9 FD points. Now, the Warriors are 5th in defensive efficiency and negate the FPPM to point guards by 2.66% below the league average. In the three regular-season meetings, he put up 16.4, 29.6, and 32.1 FD points.
That said, anything can happen in one game. If those two go nuclear, it would be at the expense of Curry and Valanciunas.
