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With preseason underway and the season right around the corner, I am sure you are checking every box score and scouring the lineups for each team as much as I am. As always, be sure to stay on top of it all in some of our guides! In this article, we will take a lot at some guards who are projected to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP). We have all experienced a player getting sniped right before your pick, but this guide should help you determine which guards to reach for.
Please keep in mind the league has shortened this season from 82 to 72 games to limit travel due to COVID-19 concerns. With the condensed season, there is even more concern for players who are regularly rested, especially with more back-to-back games. For this shortened season, we recommend that your playoffs will begin around Week 15 or 16. This should allow all fantasy teams in your league to stay competitive until the very end.
The below players are overlooked recommendations, but trust your instincts and the team build you are going for throughout your draft. Always check the injury reports and projected rotations, keep in mind your team needs, and make sure to take upside players at the end of your draft. We are hoping you have a fun basketball season and that we helped, even a little bit, along the way!
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2020-2021 Fantasy Basketball Undervalued Guards
Please note I go by Yahoo! standard league 12 teams 9-category format for ADP
Dejounte Murray, PG - San Antonio Spurs (ADP 70)
2019-2020 season numbers (per game):
25.6 minutes 10.9 points 0.6 3PM 5.8 rebounds 4.1 assists 1.7 steals 46.2% FG 79.8% FT
This feels like deja vu after Murray was a popular sleeper last season, but did not live up to the hype surrounding him. Granted, Murray was coming off a devastating ACL injury and was mostly eased back into the lineup. His 25.6 minutes per game last season is projected to increase and land around the 30-minute mark, especially now that Derrick White is out indefinitely due to toe surgery. With White out and the condensed season hampering his return, expect Murray to see an increased workload and boost in value in the short term. Despite all the inconsistency last season, Murray was still a top-80 player and is currently being drafted around the 70s after the Derrick White injury news.
Marcus Smart, PG/SG - Boston Celtics (ADP 86)
2019-2020 season numbers (per game):
32.0 minutes 12.9 points 2.3 3PM 3.8 rebounds 4.9 assists 1.7 steals 37.5% FG 83.6% FT
Speaking of injuries, Smart’s teammate Kemba Walker is dealing with a knee injury and is not expected back until we are well into the month of January. With the condensed season and concern over long-term health, Walker has already stated he is in no rush to get back on to the court. With Walker out and Gordon Hayward signing with Charlotte, enter Marcus Smart who is coming off a career season. Smart is in for a major role as a starter after putting up averages of 12.9 points, 4.9 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 2.3 three-pointers, and 1.7 steals in 32.0 minutes per game. Smart’s field-goal percentage has always been an issue, but he would be a top-50 player if you are running a punt-FG percentage build. Regardless, Smart is going around 85 in most leagues but is a breakout candidate this season.
Markelle Fultz, PG - Orlando Magic (ADP 109)
2019-2020 season numbers (per game):
27.7 minutes 12.1 points 0.5 3PM 3.3 rebounds 5.1 assists 1.3 steals 46.5% FG 73.0% FT
We have heard this all before. There are reports that Fultz has even more confidence in his shot this season compared to last and is looking to improve upon his three-point shooting. Normally, we can chalk it all up to the coaching staff trying to motivate their players ahead of a new season, but Fultz does look like he’s ready to take the next step. Fultz finally got a full season under his belt last year and performed admirably - he finished just outside the top-150 in fantasy with averages of 12.1 points, 5.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 27.7 minutes per game. With veteran guard D.J. Augustin no longer with the Magic, Fultz is projected to eclipse the 30 minutes per game mark which would boost his counting stats. The percentages and turnovers remain a concern for fantasy managers, but he is still a solid target in the later rounds.
Elfrid Payton, PG - New York Knicks (ADP 138)
2019-2020 season numbers (per game):
27.7 minutes 10.0 points 0.3 3PM 4.7 rebounds 7.2 assists 1.6 steals 43.9% FG 57.0% FT
Even bad teams can produce fantasy gems. Payton is by no means a “gem”, but he offers great value at his ADP. Ranked outside the top-130 in both ESPN and Yahoo, Payton actually finished just outside the top-100 in fantasy last season with averages of 10.0 points, 7.2 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.6 steals in 27.7 minutes per game. New head coach Tom Thibodeau has a reputation for overplaying his starter’s so Payton’s workload should increase this season with his biggest competition for minutes in Austin Rivers. Payton could crack the top-100 this season with a bigger workload, but fantasy managers should be wary of his low percentages and high turnovers in 9-cat leagues.
Alec Burks, SG - New York Knicks (ADP 139)
2019-2020 season numbers (per game):
26.6 minutes 15.0 points 1.8 3PM 4.3 rebounds 2.9 assists 0.9 steals 41.8% FG 88.7% FT
Burks had an unexpected breakout last year on the Warriors after Klay Thompson (knee) and Steph Curry (hand) were sidelined for most, if not all of the season before being traded over to the 76ers. Burks ended up posting a top-80 fantasy season with averages of 15.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.8 threes in just 26.6 minutes per game. Burks now finds himself projected to start at the two for Tom Thibodeau and the New York Knicks. As previously mentioned, Thibodeau runs his starters into the ground which could be a good thing for the 29-year-old if he is indeed the regular-season starter. When Burks played over 30 minutes last season, he averaged 20.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 2.0 threes per game across 22 games. Take this with a grain of salt as he likely won’t see the 25.0 usage rate as he did in these games, but he is looking like a late-round steal.
Josh Hart, SG/SF - New Orleans Pelicans (ADP 207)
2019-2020 season numbers (per game):
27.0 minutes 10.1 points 1.9 3PM 6.5 rebounds 1.7 assists 1.0 steals 42.3% FG 73.9% FT
Hart is the ultimate sleeper in this year’s draft. Not even ranked in the top-200 of either ESPN or Yahoo, yet Hart is projected to play a significant role per new head coach Stan Van Gundy. Last season, Hart finished around the top-125 mark in fantasy value with 27.0 minutes per game. The only difference in their roster from last year (in regards to Hart’s competition) is Eric Bledsoe replacing Jrue Holiday. Bledsoe has a bit of an injury history and Hart is projected to play more at the forward spots as well if they run more small ball. Hart’s biggest assets are his ability to lock down rebounds and shoot at a strong clip from beyond the arc. He is most likely going undrafted in almost all formats, but look for Hart to be a sneaky source of rebounds and threes with your last pick. If it doesn’t pan out, you can always look at someone with more upside on the wire.
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