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Kenny Stills was just 22 last year but managed an impressive season. According to Pro Football Focus he ranked third in the league in catch percentage (minimum 50 receptions). His 14.8 yards per reception was the most of anyone with at least a 70% catch rate. The only other players that had at least 14 yards per catch and a 70% catch rate last year were Odell Beckham Jr and Randall Cobb. That’s pretty good company! The main reason Stills didn’t get the recognition of those players is that he found himself 4th on the depth chart in one of the game’s best passing offenses. I’m not going to knock the Saints for this, it’s hard to blame them when Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and super talented Brandin Cooks were the receivers ahead of him.
It appears the Saints realized they weren’t able to use him as well as they could have and ended up shipping him to Miami. The price was not cheap either as the Saints received linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and a 3rd round pick. It seems both sides realized Stills was a very talented receiver. The Dolphins were comfortable enough with their young receivers (Jarvis Landry as well) that following the Stills trade they immediately shipped Mike Wallace to the Vikings. They did end up drafting DeVante Parker but Kenny Stills will have a chance to really show what he can do in his 3rd year.
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If you look on Player Profiler it shouldn’t be too much of surprise to see Mike Wallace listed as Stills best comp. They are nearly identical in size with a sub-4.40 40 time. Wallace is slightly faster but they both used their elite speed to lead the league in yards per catch their rookie season. Thus far in their careers, Stills has had a far more successful catch rate. Though I’m not sure how much Drew Brees factors into that, I don’t think any QB can make up the 18% difference in catch rate between Stills’ time in New Orleans and Mike Wallace with the Dolphins.
We got a glimpse of what Stills can do in a larger role after Brandin Cooks went down in Week 11. In the final six games, Stills caught 32 passes for 500 yards (though he only caught 1 touchdown while still competing with much bigger Graham and Colston). Over a full season that would put Stills at roughly 85 catches and 1330 yards! It’s a small sample size but those are still some very impressive numbers. It’s important to remember that Stills was just 22 last year.
Stills had 9 receptions on 14 targets of 20 yards downfield or more. Per PFF, this was the highest deep ball catch rate in the league. Mike Wallace was the only Dolphins receiver to get at least 10 deep targets last year and had just 6 catches on 24 deep targets. Stills will take over Wallace’s role and that should be a good indicator that he will see an increase in deep targets. There is no guarantee that Stills can match his deep route success while going from Drew Brees to Ryan Tannehill but it’s not hard to like what could be with an offense and QB that seem to be trending upwards.
In Miami, a year after Tannehill threw for 4000 yards, the Dolphins have to replace four of their top five receivers (Wallace, Clay, Hartline, Gibson). The new additions are Stills, Jordan Cameron and DeVante Parker. Stills has a golden opportunity to grab a starting role, even more so now that DeVante Parker had foot surgery and will be sidelined for most of the preseason and possibly into the regular season. Jarvis Landry, the lone returning player of the top five receivers last year, profiles as much more of a possession receiver lacking the speed and deep-threat ability of Stills. Parker would seem to pose a much bigger threat to Stills. Parker, the 14th overall pick, could be really really good.
Even if DeVante Parker is as good as he can be in his rookie year, I think Stills is set to have a more substantial role than he did in New Orleans. He should at least be able to match his 900 yards and 3 touchdowns that he had last year. If Parker isn’t ready for the start of the regular season Stills will likely make it very hard for Miami to decrease his playing time when Parker is finally healthy. Stills currently has an ADP well outside the first 10 rounds. For a guy that could easily nab 900 yards and has flashed some excellent skills in his young career he represents a great bargain. Don’t let the team change scare you off from this low risk move.
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