RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~185 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~205
Even though getting 10+ points per game from your defense is beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a D/ST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my D/ST's on teams with strong defensive talent as well as their early-season schedules.
I've created a D/ST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play.
ANALYSIS:
The Saints always seem to find themselves near the top of the defensive rankings but almost never get any love. Maybe it has to do with their offensive firepower and the fact that their games can sometimes turn into shootouts; however, this has always been a well-coached unit under Sean Payton and one that has a tremendous amount of talent. They finished as the sixth-ranked unit last season using my formula, primarily because they were eighth in drives that ended in a turnover, eighth in sacks, and sixth in pressure rate. This is a consistently opportunistic defense that puts pressure on the opposing offense throughout an entire game, which often leads to mistakes and fantasy points.
Marshon Lattimore and Malcolm Jenkins remain to anchor the secondary, and the Saints made some low-cost veteran signings around them to add depth, but the real strength of this unit is in the presence of Cameron Jordan and a linebacking corps led by Demario Davis and Kwon Alexander. Losing Trey Hendrickson to free agency is a blow, but remember that he was simply a rotational lineman for the team before his breakout in 2020, so the Saints could fill his void by having another young rotational lineman emerge, like Marcus Davenport, Carl Granderson, or first-round pick Payton Turner. At this point, I'll bet on the coaching and the system. The Packers game in week one is a tough challenge, but I love the four games after that.
EARLY SCHEDULE: vs Packers, @ Panthers, @ Patriots, vs Giants, @ Washington
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