RADIO
Back in 2001, Denzel Washington treated us to one of the most legendary acting performances of all time with his portrayal of Alonzo Harris in Training Day. Among his countless memorable moments in that masterpiece of a crime drama are the times he repeatedly reminds bright-eyed rookie Jake Hoyt, "It's not what you know. It's what you can prove." Now, I'm not out gunning down my own confidential informants in order to escape a hit order from the Russian mob, but with a little bit of imaginative wordsmithing, we can apply this same sentiment to fantasy football. It's not what we "know" about an upcoming football season that determines whether we will win our fantasy leagues.
We "know" players like Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, and Michael Thomas will finish at or near the top of their respective positions in total scoring as long as they play all year, and that drafting any one of them should provide us with a nice weekly foundation. But guess what? At best, we get to roster two of those players on draft day, and it's more likely we wind up with just one. Like the idealistic Jake Hoyt, it's what we're willing to take a chance on proving that will make the difference in whether our fantasy teams wind up walking away with a duffel bag full of cash or wrapped up in a shower curtain in someone's bathtub. And with that comes the realization that we don't know very much about the 2020 NFL season (or any NFL season before it happens, for that matter), and we can prove even less.
As such, we're going to have to take some leaps of faith on draft day. These rolls of the dice are based on the idea that we'll wind up being proven right on some questions with yet-unknown answers. So after a strange introduction in which I found a way to tie a film about crooked narcotics detectives into a story about fantasy sports, let's get to the five questions we wish we could know the answers to before we draft. One note before we begin: There are plenty of off-field questions to be answered between now and Week 1. I'm not going to focus on those here. The five questions we'll discuss today are all specifically geared toward things that may or may not take place on the field in 2020.
1. Which rookie RB not named Clyde Edwards-Helaire will become "the guy" in his backfield?
If we combine Kansas City's dynamic offense and Andy Reid's long-standing track record of producing exceptional fantasy running backs, it seems safe to say Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the odds-on favorite to have the best season of any rookie RB. Beyond Edwards-Helaire, however, the 2020 draft was packed with mid-round running backs who don't have as clear a path to fantasy stardom in their debut seasons.
There is a Todd Gurley-sized hole in the Rams' backfield, making Cam Akers arguably the most enticing of the bunch. All he has to do in order to seize the starting job is fend off Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, neither of whom exactly has a death-grip on a featured role. The Rams also didn't have a 2020 draft pick until the middle of Round 2. Despite clear evidence that their offensive line is in need of at least one upgrade, they didn't trade up. They stuck it out until the 52nd pick and used that pick on Akers. There's certainly cause for optimism regarding Akers' 2020 role.
Nobody loves to run the ball more than the Ravens, which would theoretically make J.K. Dobbins an intriguing prospect here. Unfortunately for Dobbins, Mark Ingram is still standing in the way of a starting role, and Lamar Jackson isn't suddenly going to stop carrying the ball himself. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are still on Baltimore's depth chart as well. This is a crowded backfield with a quarterback that steals an inordinate amount of rushing opportunities from his running backs, making it tough to say with any confidence that Dobbins is poised for clear workhorse duties at some point in 2020.
Jonathan Taylor is interesting here, as his fourth-round ADP seems to indicate that we're all supposed to have given up on Marlon Mack. Why that is after Mack posted his first 1,000-yard season in 2019, I don't know (especially since he'd probably be coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons if he didn't miss four games in 2018). Mack certainly leaves something to be desired in the receiving department, but he's been serviceable on the ground and relatively reliable from a health standpoint in his three-year career. He's also scored 17 rushing touchdowns in the last two years combined. The Colts did trade up to take Taylor at this year's draft, and there is more than enough reason to believe he's simply the better player. That said, Mack isn't a guy I'd be expecting to disappear without a trace from the Colts backfield in 2020. At least not to the extent that I'd draft Taylor four rounds ahead of Indy's incumbent starter, which is the ADP gap between the two at the moment.
D'Andre Swift (Lions) and Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Buccaneers) both walk into situations in which the returning starter has left the door open for a rookie to steal his job. Detroit's Kerryon Johnson has struggled to stay on the field, and has been prone to spells of ineffectiveness. There could be a frustrating timeshare on the horizon, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Swift run away with this backfield either. Ronald Jones II maintains a little more promise over Vaughn in Tampa Bay. Jones began to carve out what looked like the beginning stage of a PPR role in the latter half of 2019, and Tom Brady should look his way more often in that regard than the always-going-for-broke Jameis Winston did. The Buccaneers should also be able to run the ball more often (and more effectively) without a turnover-prone quarterback digging them into holes, so somebody in the Tampa Bay backfield is poised for better days.
Aside from the obvious point of, "because it makes my team better," why do we want to know the answer to this question now instead of later? I'm of the mind that you never want your fantasy roster to be too rookie-heavy at any position. If I'm just stockpiling rookie running backs and hoping one or two of them go off, I'm not leaving myself many outs if none of them do. There's also the likelihood the draft unfolds in such a way that we really only have a chance to grab one or two of these guys anyway. Naturally, it'd be nice to know the one we're getting is the guy who will ultimately be his team's leading rusher.
2. Will the Broncos' offense excel because of Drew Lock or in spite of him?
If Denver's offense excels because of Drew Lock, we're talking upside. If the Broncos' skill players have to find ways to produce in spite of him, however, we're dealing with floors. High floors are nice and all, but our fifth-round Courtland Sutton pick is going to look a lot better if he's smashing through the ceiling.
Lock went 4-1 as Denver's starter in 2019, completing 64.1% of his passes and tossing seven touchdowns to just three interceptions. There have been worse debuts. It's also difficult to say we know who any quarterback really is after a five-game sample size.
Had he played enough to qualify in 2019, Lock's 6.8 intended air yards per pass attempt would have ranked 29th in the league--just ahead of Joe Flacco and behind guys we all have pretty low opinions of as quarterbacks in Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. A check-down artist at QB is all well and good for the likes of Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon, but we're going to need Lock to sling it downfield as well from time to time in order to unlock the full potential of Denver's offensive weaponry.
Talking ourselves into or out of Lock's potential at QB is going to be one of the more fascinatingly maddening aspects of 2020 drafts. On one hand, how can we pass on the upside of players like Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant? On the other, what if we pick them only to have their quarterback keep them grounded all season long? For the record, this is one gamble I'm perfectly fine taking on draft day. If I leave any draft with both Sutton and Fant on my roster, I'll be happy--at least until Week 1.
3. Was 2019 a disappointing outlier for Le'Veon Bell or the beginning of a decline?
This question is less about Le'Veon Bell himself and more about his third-round ADP. If he were a round or two cheaper, I'd have an easier time selling myself on his 2020 outlook. Either way, though, we haven't seen the "real" Bell since 2017.
It's fair to chalk his underwhelming 2019 fantasy season up to a dreadful Jets offensive line. Bell's 3.2 yards-per-carry average in 2019 was his worst ever, and he didn't supplement it with touchdowns at all. The Jets bolstered their line this offseason, which could resuscitate at least some of Bell's fantasy value.
Let's imagine that the improved line does help Bell in a vacuum. Then what? Without a pretty massive step forward from a Jets passing attack armed with one of the least exciting WR groups in football and a promising but unproven quarterback in Sam Darnold, opposing defenses will be able to key in on Bell and force someone else to beat them. "But he catches passes!" Bell's pass-catching ability used to be what separated him from the rest of the league as an elite fantasy running back. In 2019, his receiving work was the only thing keeping him above water. If I wanted a running back who only provides value as a pass-catcher, I'd wait five rounds and scoop up James White.
At the moment, Bell is being drafted ahead of D.J. Moore, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Ridley. Moore looks destined to join the WR1 club after putting up a strong sophomore year in 2019, and even Robinson and Ridley could be viewed as having less volatile season-long fantasy profiles than Bell. Unless I'm going WR-WR with my first two picks or something along those lines, I'd need to know I was at least going to see shades of the old Bell in order to feel good about passing on those guys.
4. Can Carson Wentz and the Eagles' passing game catch a break?
Look, I'm a Cowboys fan. If the Eagles have to turn to practice squad players to fill out their WR depth chart again in 2020, I'm all for it. And maybe this time the Cowboys won't find a way to go 8-8 despite clearly possessing the most talent of anyone in the division. Anyway, before I get too off topic... Cowboys fan or not, I respect and root for Carson Wentz as an individual player. He only made it easier for me in 2019 as he found a way to eclipse 4,000 passing yards and toss 27 touchdowns despite having to rely on receivers like J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward down the stretch.
We know Wentz has great safety nets at tight end in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert; Ertz essentially serves as Philly's WR1. But wouldn't we like for Wentz to actually have a WR1? I've been trying to avoid framing these questions around players' health, as I think it's unfair to hold injuries against guys playing a violent game at speeds conducive to enhanced violence. But when the injury troubles are as uncanny as what the Eagles went through at wideout last year, it's worth bringing up where it leaves their quarterback if they don't have better luck in 2020. (The offense as a whole already isn't off to a great start in this regard after losing guard Brandon Brooks for the season.)
Wentz is being drafted as QB12 at the moment, and I think we can all agree that Wentz the individual player would be regarded a little higher than that if not for the concerns around his receiving corps. So let's spend some time talking about what could go right for Wentz beyond simply having a healthy Alshon Jeffery and/or DeSean Jackson in 2020.
Miles Sanders caught 50 passes in 2019, which isn't chump change for a rookie. Just a shade north of 60% of Sanders' receptions came in the second half of the season, after he had fully run away with a featured backfield role. Sanders didn't just catch the ball and fall down, either. Among RBs with at least 50 receptions, Sanders ranked sixth in yards after catch with 8.4. With a full year of Sanders as his number-one running back, Wentz will have a terrific short-range outlet who can scamper for extra yardage.
Rookie wideout Jalen Reagor is Wentz's wild card. Why the Eagles--one of the league's most obviously WR-needy teams--never traded up to make sure CeeDee Lamb didn't wind up in the hands of the Cowboys is beyond me. Maybe, like me, they couldn't fathom a scenario in which one of the league's least WR-needy teams spent a first-round pick on the position (for the record, I'm certainly not upset). Or maybe Reagor was just their guy and they knew he'd be sitting there at pick 21.
In any case, Reagor should have a ton of room to operate no matter where the Eagles line him up. Assuming better health, Jackson will stretch the field and pull defenders with him. Jeffery is a big, strong target who commands the attention of opposing defensive backs. Goedert should have earned enough respect after last year that defenses can't just ignore him. And then there's Ertz, the guy no defense will ever allow itself to lose track of on pass plays.
Reagor and Sanders could carve out utility-knife roles in the passing game by way of defenses simply not having the manpower to commit to them after accounting for everyone else on the field. Both have the ability to create once the ball is in their hands, and they're going to have the space to do it. The acceleration of these youngsters and the health of his veterans will determine whether Wentz is simply a start-worthy QB or a top option in 2020.
5. Will any young tight end break out in 2020?
As someone who typically waits to draft a tight end in any standard fantasy format, I'm virtually guaranteed never to own one of the top few options. This year I might take a different approach. The running back herd thins in a hurry after about the middle of the third round, and wide receiver is as deep as it's ever been. If grabbing one of the top few TE options means I'm getting someone like Darren Waller near the end of the fifth round, I might be able to live with that. If that scenario doesn't fall in my lap, I'm happy to revert back to waiting awhile.
Seeing that Austin Hooper is being drafted as TE13 at the moment makes such an approach pretty easy to talk myself into. I understand his role in Atlanta won't automatically translate into similar usage in Cleveland, but still--getting Hooper that late strikes me as a tremendous value. Below Hooper on the draft board are a handful of intriguing youngsters who could vastly outperform their respective ADPs if things break right, and landing the right one could make 2020 a great year to go zero-TE in the first 10 or so rounds.
Jason Witten had the second-most red-zone targets of any Cowboys player in 2019, behind only Ezekiel Elliott. No Dallas pass-catcher saw more targets inside the 10 than Witten's six. Witten leaves behind a fantasy-friendly role in scoring position and 83 total targets for Blake Jarwin, a strong and towering receiving option for Dak Prescott anywhere on the field. What defense is going to have time to worry about Jarwin while they're chasing Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb all over the place and accounting for Elliott out of the backfield? Jarwin's ADP is so low that Fantasy Football Calculator doesn't even bother to list him at the moment.
T.J. Hockenson lit the waiver wire ablaze in Week 1 of 2019, then did next to nothing for the rest of the season. Still, it's tough to forget what he showed us in that impressive debut, a game in which he saw nine targets. Hockenson averaged just 4.5 targets in his other 11 games. Perhaps the Lions will seek to involve him more consistently in 2020, and his 13th-round ADP makes that a gamble worth taking.
Miami's Mike Gesicki saw 65% of his season total in targets from Week 9 on, a stretch in which he averaged 7.3 per game. He also scored all five of his touchdowns in this span. The volume didn't translate into super-reliable week-to-week consistency, but seeing that level of involvement for Gesicki down the stretch has to qualify as encouraging heading into his third season. He's being taken as TE16.
We already touched on the Broncos above, so I won't spend too much time on Noah Fant. While I'd like to see Drew Lock prove he's capable of slinging it downfield effectively, Fant's value won't be as negatively impacted as the Broncos' wideouts if their quarterback remains a relatively short-range passer. Defenses will still have to respect the threats of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy in the long game, which will presumably open up the middle of the field for Fant. Fant struggled with inconsistent volume in 2019, as he only saw more than five targets in a game twice all year. Fant is just ahead of the aforementioned Hooper at TE12, making him the last starting tight end off the board in a 12-team league and a solid option to turn to if you wait.
There are others to be included here as well. With Delanie Walker gone, Jonnu Smith officially inherits the TE1 role for the Titans. The same goes for Ian Thomas of the Panthers, who no longer has Greg Olsen to contend with on the depth chart.
As was the case with our first question on rookie running backs, we're not going to be able to draft all of these players hoping for one to emerge as a stud. We're going to have to settle on one--maybe two if the draft board looks bleak at other positions in the final rounds. Again, it sure would be nice to know if the guy we waited until after the 10th round to draft would be the guy to put our lineup over the top. But that's what makes fantasy fun--the not knowing.
If you have any other fantasy football questions, feel free to direct them to me on Twitter, @cjoreillyCLE. I try to answer anyone who interacts with me there, but including a Training Day quote, meme, or GIF gets you top priority. Best of luck getting your draft boards ready as training camp nears, and most importantly--have fun!
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