Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 1 (Chiefs vs Texans)

On Thursday, September 10th at 8:20 PM EST, the 2020 NFL season kicks off. It has been a long 221 days since we last saw NFL football and with all that is going on in the world, it felt like (and was even a possibility) this day may never come. Thankfully, the NFL has implemented safety protocols and everyone has worked together to make this season happen.

I would like to say thank you to the entire fantasy football community for the support you have shown each other and for providing the help that was needed to get through this offseason. It is my pleasure to bring to you, the 2020 NFL Season Opener matchup preview. 

First, I would like to welcome your Thursday night host, RotoBaller’s very own fantasy football analyst, Ellis Johnson (socially distanced crowd goes wild). Okay, maybe I am exaggerating a little, however, I am very grateful for the opportunity to bring you a weekly preview for the 17 Thursday night matchups. I have been writing fantasy football content for a few years, working as an author for both RotoBaller and True North Fantasy Football, as well as being the Senior Dynasty Analyst for Master Drafter Football. In my second life, I am a University of Calgary Kinesiology Master’s student and a football fanatic. 

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

It is my goal to bring you detailed, yet concise football advice every Thursday. It’s not like there is any pressure, since this matchup can set the tone for your entire week (gulp). I will do my best to give you the advice needed to go into your weekend matchups smiling and taking a premature victory lap. So without further ado, I bring to you, the Thursday night preview of the Houston Texans versus the 2019-2020 Super Bowl champions, Kansas City Chiefs.

The NFL has gifted us a season opener that showcases two of the most electric players in the NFL going head to head. Not only does this matchup have great quarterback play, but it also features two teams that are not known for their defense. To be fair, the Chiefs’ defense did pick it up as the season went on in 2019, finishing with the 10th lowest points against per game and the 13th least passing yards allowed per game. The Texans, on the other hand, finished 25th and 29th in those statistics, respectively. This game has “shoot-out” written all over it. 

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes:

Thankfully, for my first breakdown, the NFL is handing me a slam dunk of a take. I promise you should start Patrick Mahomes. I know, this is surprising. As per the statistics above, Mahomes is set up to ball out on a defense that has arguably gotten worse over the offseason. Coming off the confidence of a Super Bowl victory, the Chiefs should come out flying and never look back. The only question is can Deshaun Watson keep the Texans in the game long enough for Mahomes to put up a monster week? However, even if Watson can’t do that, Mahomes can win your week in the first quarter.

Deshaun Watson:

One of the players I am most looking forward to watching in the opening week is Deshaun Watson. After absorbing the blow of arguably the worst trade in NFL history, I believe Watson will come out with a vengeance. The Chiefs will probably be up early, which will immediately put Watson in a place to pull a "Russell Wilson" in order to keep his team alive. Although he has lost his star receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, I believe he may have the exact weapons he needs to keep up with an offensive powerhouse. After losing his safety blanket in Hopkins, Watson has gained another in RB David Johnson. Along with this, he has gained an elite field stretcher in WR Brandin Cooks and a solid slot option in WR Randall Cobb. Ultimately, this may open up the field for Watson to work his magic and let fantasy managers reap the benefits of his rushing upside. By all means, start Deshaun Watson.

Running Backs

Kansas City: Clyde. Edwards. Helaire.

This might be the most exciting rookie debut at the position in recent history. Edwards-Helaire possesses the talent and is in a situation where we could witness history on Thursday night. Finally, we fantasy managers will get to see if all our excitement has been for good reason, and personally, I don’t see why it wouldn’t pan out. Start this man, sit back, and enjoy watching a young player in his debut game.

The only potential downside to Edwards-Helaire is if he gets the routine rookie treatment and therefore receives a slightly decreased workload. There has been nothing indicating this; however, if it were to happen, the beneficiary would be Darrel Williams. Just a reminder that the last time we saw a rookie running back for the Chiefs have his debut in the season opener, it was Kareem Hunt when he went for 248 total yards and three touchdowns against the New England Patriots in 2017.

Houston: David Johnson is back.

Fantasy owners have been waiting for a long time to see Houston with a new running back. Most of the speculation was that they would acquire a back in one of the previous three drafts, however, what they did instead was trade their franchise player for it. Tomato-Tomahto. David Johnson is definitely coming out with a chip on his shoulder for this game. Once again, continuing the ongoing trend of this preview, this is the perfect matchup for Johnson to show off.  If the Texans go down early, they will be forced to pass the ball, playing to Johnson’s strengths.

I also am predicting that the Chiefs will want to put pressure on Watson as they don’t want to give Fuller and Cooks time to get open. Watson will be forced to scramble and most likely hit the easy dump off to Johnson. The Chiefs allowed the 25th most rushing yards per game last season, and Johnson will get the work both on the ground and through the air. Plus, with the high over-under, there is always the chance that he falls into the endzone, making him a solid RB2 with low-end RB1 upside. 

The other player to discuss is Duke Johnson Jr. There is a narrative where the increased passing volume could increase his involvement; however, there is also the narrative where they give every touch to David Johnson. Because of this, I would stay away from Johnson Jr. in all formats, and I would wait a week to see what the split will be like. 

Wide Receivers

Kansas City: 

Mahomes should have no issues exploiting the Texans through the air. Although Tyreek Hill has been inconsistent in the past, if there is ever a time where you can almost guarantee a big-play touchdown, it would be in this matchup. The best part is with his guaranteed volume, even if Hill somehow doesn’t catch a deep ball touchdown, he will still be productive. I would fire him up as a WR1 everywhere with confidence. 

Sammy Watkins has been back at practice after missing the last few days with a groin injury. Watkins is coming off a season where he posted 487 receiving yards on 25 catches in 2019, and he did about a quarter of that in Week 1. In a game where Mahomes could throw for over 350 yards easily, there will be many fantasy points to be had. I believe Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson are each in a situation where you can start them in a deep league as a high upside flex play. I would rank them in that order as risk increases exponentially with each player.

Houston: 

It is weird breaking down this receiving core and not talking about DeAndre Hopkins. Instead, the Texans have added Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb to help nullify his absence. In a game where Watson may rely on the deep ball, these players could be the perfect weapons against the Chiefs. Having Will Fuller V and Brandin Cooks on the outside is an impeccable combination for opening up the field. Both these players have the potential ability to “Tyreek Hill” the Chiefs and get open on Watson’s scrambles for a large completion.

If I were to choose who will perform better of the two receivers, I would play Fuller, as he has the repertoire with Watson. Also, Watson has come out this offseason saying that Fuller will go off this season. However, I think both Cooks and Fuller should be an autostart, as they both have the ability to win your week on Thursday night.  The sneaky receiver here is Randall Cobb. Watson will need someone to hit in the middle of the field and move the chains, and that guy should be Cobb. I would be happy starting him in a deeper PPR league as a flex play.

Tight Ends

Kansas City:

Start Travis Kelce. Seriously, there is not much more to say than that. He is Mahomes’ favorite target and has been the fantasy TE1 for two consecutive years. There is no downside, so enjoy watching your second-round pick go off and give you a huge positional advantage against your opponent. 

Houston Texans:

Ultimately, you are playing the “who will fall in the endzone game” with these Houston tight ends. Last season, Darren Fells scored the third-most touchdowns at the position (7). Watson does look for him in the red zone and he would be my pick of the three Houston tight ends in terms of finding the paydirt. As for Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas, they are shots in the dark, and I would overall NOT start any of these three tight ends in any format.

The one other thing I want to discuss about these tight ends is the potential breakout of Jordan Thomas. His first season was cut short due to injury in 2019; however, at 6’5” and 277 lbs, he could easily be a red zone monster. Being 10 years younger than Darren Fells, I would keep an eye out for him if he gets the majority of targets at the position for the team. If this is the case, I would immediately be interested in dynasty formats. 

Ellis’ Picks

I love when players have the additional motivation and play with a chip on their shoulder entering a new season. For Deshaun Watson and David Johnson, this was clear (check out their workouts on social media). When you add that kind of fuel to what is the Deshaun Watson fire, you could have a tighter game than expected. This is a team that will want to make a statement to the rest of the league against the reigning champs.

Arrowhead is one of the hardest stadiums to play in… when there are fans. However, with no fans and coming off a Super Bowl win, I could see the Chiefs slow down if they score early, leaving an opportunity for Watson to rally and keep his team in the game. Because of this, here are my first picks of the season.

Over 54.5 

Texans +10.5

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