RADIO
Football is back, baby! The weather is still hot, but Saturdays are filled with college football and our ever-precious Sundays are filled with the NFL. I've never been more ready for a football season. The new season, brings new beginnings on the betting front too, which this guy is more than ready for. My 2021 season was not my strongest, but I can only go up from here. I finished the playoffs on a very strong note, but am looking to put together a strong, front-to-back season in 2022.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty - please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 1 NFL Betting Picks - Totals
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (+7)
Sunday 9/11, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 41.5
We finally get the new look 49ers as we enter the 2022 season. Trey Lance is the new man in town (for now) and Kyle Shanahan has committed to the second-year signal caller. On offense, they return weapons in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Elijah Mitchell which puts them at the forefront of many fans' radars. Lance had a limited role last year but looked solid, thanks to a dual-threat skillset but how the team caters to his abilities is what has us intrigued as fans and sports bettors. Defensively, San Francisco posted a Top 10 unit, based on DVOA, and by all accounts should be even better in '22.
The '22 version of the Chicago Bears is shaping up to be a bit of a laughing stock. They lost WR1 Allen Robinson to free agency and did nothing to soften that blow for Justin Fields and the offense. Fields showed signs of ability as a rookie, but as have all the quarterbacks under Matt Nagy, they fell well below the line of success. A new regime is in town, but does a Darnell Mooney-led receiver room peak your interest? He's a fine player, but not one you anticipate being a top option.
In the backfield, David Montgomery is a name we've heard about for several years now, but a career 3.9 yards per rush is less than exciting and doesn't help open things up for Fields either. The Bears lost key parts of their nucleus on defense, with Khalil Mack and Akiem Nicks departing town. They made some additions to the secondary, but with a less talented pass-rush, this defense's performance will be under a microscope.
There are just too many questions with this Chicago team, on both sides of the ball. Fields could be the answer, but will he ever get the chance to shine? I'm not so confident. The 49ers are in a better spot to help their young quarterback and return several key playmakers on both sides of the ball.
In this battle of 2021 rookie quarterbacks, I give the clear advantage to the 49ers just on talent alone. However, I think Shanahan struggles to get his offense rolling and while Chicago's defense is a lesser unit than we've come to expect, they can give enough trouble to Lance to slow down San Fran. I'd lean the 49ers to cover, but give me the under in Week 1.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+4)
Sunday 9/1 1:00PM EST | O/U: 49
Philadelphia made a significant addition to their offense when they traded for A.J. Brown on day one of the NFL Draft. Jalen Hurts is expected to take the next step in his development after the Eagles made the playoffs at 9-8 in 2021, however, there are not many that think he's going to do so. He has the benefit of an elite offensive line which also opens up space for a highly efficient running game.
The only problem there is, that I don't think the team knows who they want to lead the way, as Miles Sanders, Kenny Gainwell, and Boston Scott all get their fill. Defensively, the Eagles have a stout unit and slightly improved the secondary after adding James Bradberry this offseason. There is a lot of talent here and should make Week 1 tough on the Lions.
The Detroit Lions have been at the bottom of the barrel in the NFL, but things seem to at least be going down the right path with Dan Campbell as head coach. No, Jared Goff isn't a Super Bowl caliber quarterback or even a playoff-caliber quarterback, but they improved the receiving group to go along with an above-average D'Andre Swift at running back. There are pieces to build around here, especially with one of the best offensive lines in the game. Their defense is still very bad, but with number two pick, Aiden Hutchinson, in blue and silver the pass-rush will get a significant upgrade.
The Lions were one of the best teams against the spread a season ago, but we're looking at the total here (though I think Philadelphia wins easily). There's a lot of hope for Philly to be a premier offense this season with Hurts and company, but we saw a similar expectation last year and while they showed signs, I don't think Eagles fans ever felt 100% about it. I'm also not positive that Detroit will be able to push the envelope quite yet and I think they won't score more than two touchdowns here. This total is a touch too high for my liking.
Pick: Under 49 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
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Week 1 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Sunday 9/11 1:00PM EST | O/U 41.5
Find another team that has been through more of a whirlwind this offseason than the Browns and I'll call you a liar. Now that we know Deshaun Watson won't be playing for 11 games, we can settle in on Jacoby Brissett as the guy. The 29-year-old was pedestrian in five starts for the Miami Dolphins a year ago but guided them to a 2-3 record in that span.
This Browns team is light years ahead of the 2021 Dolphins. Nick Chubb is arguably a Top 5 running back, who is a lock for over 1,000 yards and at least seven touchdowns a season, so Brissett has the run game to rely on. The Browns also added Amari Cooper to be the WR1, but outside of those two, head coach Kevin Stefanski is looking for production from others. Defensively, the Browns house some of the most talented players in the NFL with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. They weren't quite as effective as expected last year, but with full health, this unit should push for better than a Top 10 finish.
Carolina has had some turmoil of its own this offseason. After trying to trade for multiple veteran starting quarterbacks, they finally landed on Baker Mayfield, who gets a nice little revenge game against his former team to open the 2022 season. He was named the starter over Sam Darnold and reportedly had some choice words to say how he thinks the game will go.
While he doesn't have Chubb anymore, he has Christian McCaffrey, who is one of the most electric players in the NFL but is hoping to avoid the injury bug this season and you can bet that Baker will use every bit of whatever health CMC has left this year. DJ Moore is his top receiving target, and while Moore has impressed overall, he hasn't been gifted with the best quarterbacks throwing to him so it's tough to gauge how high he can go. Defensively, Carolina made some slight upgrades after giving up around 24 ppg in '21 but held opponents to just 306 yards per game while averaging less than one takeaway a game.
While the rumors were Mayfield is overly confident, I think many are forgetting about the other side's interest in this matchup. No team knows Baker better than Cleveland, especially the defense he used to practice against. Brissett is not a quarterback you typically want to target, but with the ensemble around him on both sides of the ball, I think this is my favorite play of the week. The Browns will start out 2022 with a 1-0 record and give Mayfield a nice parting gift.
Pick: Cleveland Browns ML (+118) Bet 1 Unit
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