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Week 10 was a mixed bag, starting with the surprising Giants' upset of the Eagles. The undefeated Steelers, meanwhile, easily dispatched of the conference rival Bengals to notch our only win of the week. Denver had a golden opportunity, but narrowly missed out on the first half over by half a point. Filling in for Steve this week, I'll be hoping to get the NFL bettors back in the green in Week 11.
- Week 10: 1-2 (33%, -1.1u)
- 2020 Season: 14-15-1 (47%, -1.24u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'll be filling in for Steve to provide my best bets and recommendations for Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season. Steve, our resident betting expert for the NFL, will be back in a few weeks and you can find him on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. You can also follow Steve on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where he posts every pick that he plays. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1.5, -122)
O/U: 46.5
The Bengals entered the year with relatively low expectations, but high hopes for the future. Youn quarterback Joe Burrow has justified the hype thus far, with 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season. In Burrow's last three games, he has thrown for 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception, and has had a passer rating above 106 in two of the three games. Pitt product Tyler Boyd and his fellow ACC alum Tee Higgins from Clemson have been stellar as receivers this year. Boyd, with 60 catches and 625 yards, is well on his way to another 1,000 yard season. Higgins, meanwhile, has come on lately with an average of 6 catches and 97.3 yards over his last four games. If the Burrow-to-Higgins connection continues on Sunday, the Bengals offense should be able to look more like the team that beat Tennessee by 11 in Week 8 than the team that was embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
Coach Ron Rivera has been tasked with the difficult job of coaching a team devoid of NFL talent. The Alex Smith comeback story is a great story, but the on-field performance is a disappointing story. Smith has thrown for only 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions this season, and has been sacked 10 times in the 3 games that he has played in. Surprisingly, Smith has never thrown a touchdown against the Bengals, a streak which may continue this Sunday. The former Redskins' playmakers are former Ohio State wide receiver Terry McLaurin (57 receptions, 787 yards) and the running back combo of Antonio Gibson (436 rushing yards, 202 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns) and J.D. McKissic (41 receptions). Outside of that trio, the proven weapons are far and few between.
In a game between two two-win teams that have few realistic playoff aspirations, the Bengals should have the upper hand. Offensive tackle Jonah Williams' injury status will be important to monitor for Burrow's blindside safety, but the Washington offense is wholly uninspiring at the moment. Washington has lost 4 games by double digits, and it would not be unreasonable to see that increase to 5 on Sunday.
Pick: Cincinnati ML (+106, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7, -320)
O/U: 48
The 2020 season has been a lost cause for the Cowboys, and an even larger loss for Cowboys bettors. The Cowboys did not cover a game until their Week 9 loss to the Steelers, while covering a 14-point spread. In that surprisingly close loss, quarterback Garrett Gilbert played sufficiently enough to keep America's team in the game, but not well enough to inspire confidence that he could will the team to victory. Since losing Dak Prescott to a season-ending injury and replacing Prescott with the brigade of Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci and Gilbert, the Cowboys have been outscored 110 to 41. On top of the up-and-down quarterback play, star running back Ezekiel Elliott is questionable with a hamstring injury. Coach Mike McCarthy's inaugural season in Dallas is surely one that he would like to forget.
Minnesota opened the season with a dismal 1-5 record. In the team's Week 7 bye, Coach Mike Zimmer turned the right knobs and has the Vikings on a 3-game win streak with wins over three divisional foes. Running back Dalvin Cook has been nearly unstoppable with over 100 yards from scrimmage in five of the past six games, including three over 200 yards from scrimmage. When Cook isn't busy running all over opponents or scoring touchdowns at will (13 touchdowns in 9 games). quarterback Kirk Cousins has been able to find his receivers Adam Thielen and the rookie Justin Jefferson with consistency. Jefferson, in particular, has been crucial in the winning streak, including 8 catches for 135 yards on Monday Night Football against the Bears last week.
With a limited Elliott and the worst-ranked scoring defense in the league, Dallas may be looking at a recipe for a long afternoon. Reports indicate that Andy Dalton will be ready to play for the Cowboys on Sunday, but unfortunately that won't cure the team's defensive woes. The turnover differentials for both teams (-13 for Dallas and -3 for Minnesota) are dismal. Matching the fifth-best rushing attack (Minnesota) against the 31st defensive rushing unit (Dallas) could turn out for a disastrous day.
Pick: Minnesota -7 (+100, FoxBet) 1 Unit
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, -167) at Denver Broncos
O/U: 44.5
Sitting at 6-3, in 2nd place in the AFC East Division, and in the hunt for the Wild Card, the Miami Dolphins are one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2020 season. Since handing over the reigns to rookie sensation Tua Tagovailoa, the team is 3-0. Tua has thrown for 5 touchdowns and no interceptions in his 3 starts, slowly gaining more responsibilities and trust on offense each game. With a 7-2 record against-the-spread, Miami has been the top team in the league for bettors. Coach Brian Flores' squad has combined a productive offense (27.9 points per game, good for 9th in the league) with a stout defense (5th scoring defense in the league) that has Miami fans thinking of the playoffs as a reasonable goal. For daily fantasy sports players, former Washington Huskies running back Salvon Ahmed should be a player on most radars, as he is poised for a big opportunity on Sunday to play in a game that Miami will hope to coast ahead early on in.
The Denver Broncos have had an up-and-down season, sitting at 3-6, with all three wins over teams with losing records. Quarterback play has been a significant issue - with the triumvirate of Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien combining for 12 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. On the ground, Melvin Gordon has not provided the boost that had been hoped for, while Phillip Lindsay has struggled with injuries. Coach Vic Fangio has been a defensive coach since his 1979 inaugural coaching season as the linebackers coach at Dunmore (PA) high school, and he can't be thrilled about the team's 27th ranked scoring defense. The defense's dismal performance does not give much room for error for a poor offense that scores a mere 20.7 points per game, good for 28th of the 32 teams in the NFL. The Broncos are not without hope - second-year tight end Noah Fant has emerged as a player with All-Pro potential and defensive end Bradley Chubb is validating his fifth overall draft position in the 2018 draft - but the overall sum of the parts has been unable to click thus far.
Riding a hot hand comes with the risk that you'll be jumping on the bandwagon at the wrong moment. However, the Dolphins and Broncos are two teams moving in opposite directions. Expect Tua and the 'Fins to jump out to a quick lead, and hope to hold on against the best that Drew Lock and the Broncos can throw at them.
Pick: Miami 1st half -2 (-120, FanDuel) 1 Unit
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