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Week 11 was a rough one, starting with the Bengals' quarterback Joe Burrow going down with a season-ending injury that also ended their hopes of pulling out a win against the Washington Football Team. Many survivor pools were shaken up when the Vikings not only didn't cover, but failed to win over the Cowboys at home. Lastly, the Dolphins looked lifeless against the Broncos, with rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa getting benched during the game. I'll be filling in for Steve again here in Week 12, before we return you to your normal programming next week.
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'll be filling in for Steve to provide my best bets and recommendations for Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season. Steve, our resident betting expert for the NFL, will be back next week and you can find him on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. You can also follow Steve on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where he posts every pick that he plays. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots (-1.5, -132)
O/U: 49.5
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have had a strong run in the months of October and November. Coach Kliff Kingsbury's team has won a few close games, including a memorable Hail Mary victory two weeks ago over the Bills. Murray, who should be in MVP conversations, has scored at least one rushing touchdown in 8 of the team's 10 games, and has completed almost 70% of his passes. It helps that Murray has such a talented receiver corps at his disposal, led by DeAndre Hopkins, who has 96 catches and may cross the 1,000-yard plateau this week. Hopkins is not the only threat, with future Hall-of-Famer Larry Fitzgerald, and young up-and-comers Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella demanding attention as well. The backfield was dominated early by Kenyan Drake, but is shifting to a timeshare with Chase Edmonds.
The New England Patriots are in unfamiliar territory, sitting at 4-6. They are looking up at both the Bills and Dolphins in the divisional standings, and a Wild Card berth would require some magic and a strong end-of-season run. Quarterback Cam Newton began the year strong, but has been abysmal since returning from his COVID-19 absence. For the season, Newton has thrown 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and he's fumbled the ball away three times. In Newton's defense, the receiving corps that Coach Bill Belichick has provided is less than stellar, as his top targets at the moment are Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers. For years, the Patriots relied on strong play from their tight end position, with the likes of Ben Watson and Rob Gronkowski. Now, tight end Ryan Izzo primarily serves as a blocking option, as evidenced by his 12-catches and zero-touchdowns so far.
When teams play in Foxborough, the weather is always a factor that needs monitoring. Luckily, with no expected precipitation, and temperatures in the 50s, this should turn out to be prime passing weather for Kyler Murray. The Patriots will hope that they can pull out a performance like they did two weeks ago in a close home win over the reeling Baltimore Ravens.
Pick: Arizona -2.5 (-108, FanDuel) 1 Unit
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-6, -265)
O/U: 43
Rookie phenom quarterback Joe Burrow's season was ended when he tore both his MCL and ACL in his left knee last Sunday. The recovery period is an expected 9-to-12 months, which puts his 2021 season in possible jeopardy as well. To replace Burrow, the Bengals will be turning to third-string quarterback Brandon Allen, after second stringer Ryan Finley couldn't hit the broad side of a barn last week. Finley, a North Carolina State graduate, has completed 45% of his passes in four career NFL games, taking 15 sacks along the way. The team will hope that Allen, a 2016 6th round draft pick out of Arkansas, can build on the experience he developed in 3 games of relief duty for the Broncos last season. Allen does have quality targets in Tyler Boyd, AJ Green, and Tee Higgins, but the journeyman has yet to prove that he can play with consistency in the NFL. During Allen's 3-week showcase in 2019, he completed 46% of his passes, took 9 sacks, and threw a few interceptions.
The Giants have been a boon for bettors this year, going 6-1 against-the-spread in their past seven games, despite only winning three of those games straight-up. Quarterback Daniel Jones has willed the team to victories, but is overall having a poor statistical season with 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Former Clemson running back Wayne Gallman gets the lion's share of the workload replacing the injured Saquon Barkley in the backfield. The G-Men tied the Eagles atop the standings, with a meager 3 wins, on the backs of back-to-back divisional wins over the Washington Football Team and the Eagles. The Giants have been winning games in narrow fashion, with opportunistic defensive turnovers and an offense that has been just good enough at all the right times. The Giants have scored over 30 points only once this season.
Combining the NFL's 30th ranked scoring offense (Giants) and its opponent that will be working deep down the depth chart at quarterback, does not usually spell success for points. Additionally, the weather may be a factor for the teams' limited passing attacks with expected rain and cold temperatures in the high 30s at Paul Brown Stadium.
Pick: Under 43 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
Cleveland Browns (-6.5, -282) at Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U: 49
The Cleveland Browns are aiming for a playoff push, sitting at 7-3, and three games back of the divisional-leading Pittsburgh Steelers. The Browns have defended their home turf well with a 5-5 record, but lost blow-out road games to the Ravens and Steelers in head-scratching fashion. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has had his moments, but leads a passing attack that ranks 30th in the NFL in yardage. That's made possible by a stellar run game on the backs of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who have combined for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns already.
Coach Doug Marrone's team is 1-9, and there have probably been conversations around tanking the rest of the year to optimize the team's draft position and get either Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft. Quarterback Jake Luton threw four interceptions in last week's dismal loss to the Steelers, putting even more pressure on undrafted rookie running back James Robinson out of FCS-level Illinois State, who has been one of the team's few bright spots. If Gardner Minshew is healthy enough to take the field, it is likely that he will return to his starting quarterback duties. The Jaguars will be missing star defensive end Josh Allen, who suffered what is likely a season-ending injury last week against the Steelers. An additional worry to monitor - star wide receiver DJ Chark did not practice on Wednesday with a rib injury.
With the potential absence of top two receivers Chark and Laviska Shenault, whoever is playing quarterback for the Jaguars may have difficulty finding rhythm with the likes of Keelan Cole and Chris Conley. There's currently an 83% chance of precipitation at TIAA Bank Field, a fact that favors the dominant Browns rushing attack in this matchup of AFC foes.
Pick: Cleveland 1st half -3.5 (-115, FanDuel) 1 Unit
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