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Not the greatest return to action in Week 13. New Orleans took care business, covering the -2.5 against the Falcons. However we had a straight up clunker by the Chargers against the Patriots. The Raiders and Jets turned into a shootout, where the Jets almost took down their first win. In the end, bad defenses truly are a revolving door and that what we saw. We move onto Week 14.
- Week 13: 1-2 (33%, -1.15u)
- 2020 Season: 15-17-1 (45%, -2.43u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Tennessee Titans (-7.5, -335) at Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U: 52.5
The Titans were caught playing catch up to the Browns last week, going down 38-7 into halftime. They shot back in the second half, scoring 28 points of their own before falling short, 41-35. Derrick Henry was silenced by the stout Cleveland run defense, rushing for just 60 yards while being held scoreless for just the fifth time this season. However Ryan Tannehill made up for it, continuing his career season, throwing for 389 yards and four scores. His pass catchers are getting hot at the right time which means if Henry gets going again, look out for these Titans.
Jacksonville has turned into the laughing stock many expected them to be at this beginning of this year. Mike Glennon has started the last two games and they've actually been very competitive, including taking the Vikings to overtime last week before falling 27-24. Rookie James Robinson has been one of the more impressive running backs in the NFL this season, averaging 80 rushing yards per game with seven scores. His success is crucial to this team though, as the defense ranks dead last in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed per game.
The Titans have kind of had a rocky road recently, but this offense is filled with weapons. Their defense certainly has plenty of issues, but the offense can take over a game. While I think the full game spread is an ok-play, I like the first half line better, as Tennessee has averaged nine points more in the first half than the Jags.
Pick: Tennessee 1st Half -4.5 (+105, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Houston Texans (-1.5, -120) at Chicago Bears
O/U: 45
It's not a rare sight to see a team play better under an interim head coach, and now Hosuton is no different. Sure, they're 4-8, but those four wins have all come under Romeo Crennel. The pass and run game are at different ends of the spectrum, with the Deshaun Watson ranking 5th in DVOA, while the run game comes in dead last in DVOA. Receivers are quite bare now without Will Fuller, but Keke Coutee and Brandin Cooks seems to be able to handle the reigns for now. Defensively, the Texans have allowed 27 ppg and over 350 ypg in all 12 games so far; not good by any means.
The Bears went back to Mitch Trubisky two games ago, and while they've lost both of those games, they've scored more points in a two game stretch than any other time this season. Dropping 25 and 30, respectively, over the last two weeks, Chicago has seen a bit of a resurgence. An improved run game has certainly helped, with David Montgomery and Cordarrelle Patterson gaining the bulk of 261 rushing yards over the last two games. Defensively, the Bears have taken a step back of late, allowing 37.5 ppg and 426.5 ypg over the last two against Green Bay and the beat-up Lions.
Chicago's defense is without a doubt the better unit but giving up 75 points in two games is nothing to write home about, while Houston's has been terrible all season. Offenses will take precedent here and despite the players missing in Houston's pass game, they've already shown that the backups are capable.
Pick: Over 45 (-118, Foxbet) 1 Unit
New Orleans Saints (-7, -154) at Philadelphia Eagles
O/U: 43
Rattling off nine straight wins is not an easy feat but New Orleans has cemented themselves top the NFC. Taysom Hill gets a fourth straight start under center, and despite throwing his first career touchdown last week, he's been rather impressive NO. Alvin Kamara has helped lead an offense that has rushed for over 200 yards in back-to-back games, but Latavius Murray and Hill have been big factors in the run game as well. Of course we can't forget about Michael Thomas, now that he's healthy, so this offense should only get stronger. Their defense has been nothing short of fantastic; the 16 points they allowed last week were the most since Week 8 when they allowed 23. Buy these Saints as real contenders.
Philly fans finally get their wish by seeing Carson Wentz on the sideline with a clipboard instead of taking snaps. An offense that hasn't scored more than 17 points since Week 8, which coincidentally was also their last win, will now look to rookie Jalen Hurts to lead the charge. The Oklahoma product has 15 NFL passes under his belt, so it wouldn't be surprising if the Eagles try to lean on Miles Sanders and Boston Scott to help ease his workload early on. In these situations, it's easy to try and rely on the defense but Philly isn't so lucky this year. They allow 25.6 ppg and around 347 ypg, which isn't the worst mark but the 130 rushing yards allowed per game against this Saints team could cause concern.
You can throw all offensive stat numbers out for the Eagles now, it's a clean slate. Do they have a better shot now with Hurts? It can't be much worse. However, New Orleans is a different animal. The full game number is solid but I'm looking for New Orleans to get an early jump on things and take out the risk of any potential garbage time business by Philadelphia.
Pick: New Orleans 1st Half -3.5 (+103, Draftkings [20% Profit Boost]) 1 Unit
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