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Man, some tough beats in Week 1. The Dolphins were the absolutely better team against the Patriots and should have had the lead heading into the locker room, but I bet the straight up 1H winner and they tied so we count it as a loss. San Francisco scared us all against Detroit, but they held down the fort with an eight point win. Overall, it was an exciting Week 1, but I could do with a fewer of the late-game antics, at least from a betting perspective!
- 2021 Season: 1-2 (33%, -.88u)
- Spread: 1-0, +0.87u
- Total: 0-1, -1u
- Moneyline: 0-1, -.75u
- Props: 0-0
- 2020 Season: 18-23-1 (43%, -5.63u)
As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. For instance, Draftkings has done a 20% Profit Boost every week of the NFL season for each of the last few years, making it difficult to bet elsewhere unless you really like a line. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 2 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Sunday 9/19, 1PM EST | O/U: 45
The NFL got a peak into what the Joe Burrow-led Bengals are capable of in week 1. Burrow and his former LSU teammate, JaMarr Chase, made Twitter explode with a deep ball along the right sideline for a 50-yard touchdown. Overall, the second-year signal caller looked impressive, but not to be outdone by his backfield counterpart, Joe Mixon, tore up the Vikings Defense for 150 total yards. Defensively, the Bengals got tore up through the air, but did hold Dalvin Cook to just 61 yards. Overall, this is a team with low expectations until they prove more, but if they can string together more outings like Week 1, the AFC North may be on watch.
Chicago got a rude awakening in Week 1, getting walloped by the Rams 34-14, but oddly enough that one falls on the defense that got torched by Matthew Stafford. The performance earned them the super early-season 32nd ranked defense DVOA. On the offensive side, Andy Dalton sure caught a lot of flack heading into the season because so many wanted to see Justin Fields. Overall, the 34-year-old didn't look terrible, going 27-for-38 for 206 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. These numbers prove two things: the Bears aren't confident in Dalton's big play ability (longest completion was 19 yards) and they will continue to rely on David Montgomery, who rushed for 108 yards and a score.
There is never a bigger honeymoon phase in sports than the period in between weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL season. Everyone is going to be loving the Bengals heading into Week 2, thanks to their exciting performance against the Minnesota. However, this Bears defense isn't as bad as they portrayed; they finished 8th overall in defensive DVOA in 2020. Prepare for the Bears to attack a depleted Bengals defense (Trae Waynes, Doubtful) through the air and ground and win this game by a touchdown.
Pick: Chicago -2.5 (-120, BetMGM) 1 Unit
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 9/19, 1PM EST | O/U: 49
Talk about a team that has been in the headlines over the last week, due to running back Raheem Mostert not only getting injured but eventually announcing he is done for the year. Fear not, as many don't seem to be worried. His backup, Elijah Mitchell, rushed for 120 yards and a score in his place, but keep in mind that was against the Lions Defense. Will we finally see rookie back Trey Sermon? Will JaMycal Hasty wind up as Kyle Shanahan's favorite? Who knows. Even if the Niners flat out abandon the run, their passing game can compete just the same. Jimmy Garoppolo had a fun time targeting Deebo Samuel, but just wait until he gets George Kittle involved, then this offense will really be ready. Defensively, the 49ers are a little banged up, including Jason Verrett (knee, IR) so don't be surprised if they get tested against a better offense.
Philadelphia walked into Atlanta and dismantled the Falcons, 32-6. Jalen Hurts was efficient through the air (27 of 35, 3 TD) and made plays with his feet (62 yards), just like he left off in the 2020 season. Miles Sanders supplemented the run game nicely with 74 yards, something he did just twice last season. If Sanders can continue to get help up front and Hurts can continue to find rookie DeVonta Smith, this offense could thrive early before defenses can adjust. Defensively, his Eagles unit was on a mission against Matt Ryan and co., allowing just 260 yards of offense and no touchdowns. However, to think the 49ers are on the level of the Falcons is irresponsible. Philly finished 15th in Defensive DVOA in 2020, but recorded a Turnover % of just 9.2 last year, one of the lowest in the league.
It's always a big narrative that teams traveling from West to East always struggle with jet lag. However, Kyle Shanahan's team seems to be the exception. In their last six games on the east coast, they've scored 33, 36, 31, 17, 41, and 31, respectively. Combine that with a Philly team that is thriving from a strong Week 1 performance and I think this has the makings of a high-scoring matchup. The total started at 45.5 and is now up to 49, so I wouldn't go much further than 49.5, but at the number right now, I'll take it 10 times out of 10.
Pick: Over 49 (+109, Draftkings 20% Profit Boost) 1 Unit
Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 9/19, 1PM EST | O/U: 45
Denver took care of business, downing the Giants 27-13 in Week 1. No one will be excited by the Broncos as long as Teddy Bridgewater is the quarterback. Their loss. Bridgewater, while never overly exciting, has proven to be as steady as they come. He went 28-for-36 with two touchdowns in his Bronco regular season debut and was backed up by a decent ground game. Over 140 yards between Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams, however, 70 of them came on Gordon's touchdown run. The news of the week is Jerry Jeudy (ankle) being placed on IR, but the world isn't over. Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, Tim Patrick, and Noah Fant give Bridgewater plenty to look at. Defensively, this Broncos unit is highly regarded, except now they're without Ronald Darby and possibly Bradley Chubb (Questionable). Obviously pay attention to injury reports, but this isn't the unit many were expecting entering the year.
Somehow there are other franchises out there setup to be a bigger laughing stock than the Jaguars (see Texans and Lions). First overall pick Trevor Lawrence is reason enough to be at least somewhat excited for the future in Jacksonville, but he really does have some talent around him. James Robinson is the main back after a strong rookie campaign, while D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault Jr., and Marvin Jones give the rookie a decent enough crop of receivers to move the ball downfield. Defensively, woof. There's not much more that needs to be said other than that they gave up 37 points and 450 yards of offense to one of the most devoid offenses in terms of talent I think I've ever seen in the Houston Texans in Week 1. Urban Meyer is in over his head and has no clue how to run and NFL franchise.
This total has been all over the place. It opened at 43.5, spiked to 47.5 and is now back down to 45. I'm not one to think the Broncos are toast because Jeudy is gone, as I really like Hamler and Sutton. I expect them to get a lead early and force the Jags to throw early and often, but against a depleted Denver defense, I wouldn't be surprised for Lawrence to have a solid garbage time game, pushing this total over.
Pick: Over 45 (+104 Draftkings 20 % Profit Boost, 1 Unit)
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