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We pulled in another .500 week in Week 5, including my first prop pick of the season as Aaron Rodgers had a field day through the air against Cincinnati. The Chargers used a huge fourth quarter comeback to down the Browns and cover at home in a high-scoring game. Philly and Carolina played terribly, in a game that easily should have hit the over, but that's the way sports betting works. Overall, still a small loss unit wise in Week 5, but we're working our way back to 50% for the year.
- 2021 Season: 6-10 (37%, -4.7u)
- Spread: 4-1, +2.5u
- Total/Team Total: 1-7, -6u
- Moneyline: 0-2, -1.6u
- Props: 1-0, .4u
As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Houston Texans (-10) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday 10/17, 1PM EST | O/U: 43
Houston is for sure a mess still, but Week 5 was certainly a sign of progression with their bare bones roster. Rookie David Mills passed for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots and that's without Brandin Cooks having a big day. The Stanford product spread the ball around quite effectively, with five receivers catching multiple passes. This includes the breakout game from receiver Chris Moore, who caught five passes for 103 yards and a score. The run game has been atrocious since Week 1, but against a Colts defense with a strong front seven and a leaky secondary, I don't expect much running out of Houston in this one. Defensively, the Texans rank in the bottom 10 in points per game, yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed, however, they haven't allowed more than 290 yards passing in any game since Week 1.
Indianapolis might take the cake for most disappointing team through five weeks, if were' accounting for preseason expectations. Carson Wentz has been his normal self (incredibly inconsistent). The Week 5 overtime loss to Baltimore was the first time the Colts have thrown for more than 245 yards, but the run game has been solid if nothing else. They've tallied over 105 yards on the ground in four of five contests and facing against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL has to have Jonathan Taylor licking his chops. Defensively, the Colts are the polar opposite of their opponent, housing the 30th ranked pass defense by DVOA and the 2nd ranked run unit.
These two teams are certainly a mess, and while Indianapolis has no business being a 10-point favorite, I'm looking elsewhere in this one. Both defenses have are porous in their own way, and their opponent have the talent to take advantage of those weaknesses. I look for Houston to keep it close with Indy, allowing the score to keep rising.
Pick: Over 43 (-118, FoxBet) 1 Unit
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 10/10, 1PM EST | O/U: 47
It's hard not to be excited about the future of this Bengals team. The trio Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase should be around for the next several years and so far they've given fans a reason for excitement. Wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh got many hyped up, but the numbers to back it up weren't all that impressive. Overall, the team averages just 23 ppg and ranks 25th in total offense, 22nd in rushing, and 24th in passing. On the defensive end, the trading card numbers look nice, allowing just 20 ppg but they've surrendered over 340 yards in four of five games. They have forced five turnovers so far and also rank top 10 in sacks per game (2.6), so there is some talent in this unit.
These Lions have been playing incredibly tough the last three week. Despite the 0-3 record in that span, they've lost by a combined 14 points. Led by Jared Goff, no one will expect them to put up insane numbers but they have a nice balance with D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in the run game. Playmaking tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee) is banged up and questionable to go, so if he somehow misses that would be just an immense hit to the offense because the rest of the receiving corps. Defensively, there is reason to be skeptical. However, keep in mind this Lions unit held the Ravens and Vikings to just 19 points apiece. They've allowed over at least 320 yards of offense in all five games, but their recent performance wreaks of a "bend-don't-break" gameplan.
I see this as a look-ahead spot for Cincy here. They're 3-2, off a brutal overtime loss to Green Bay and now they have the start of a three-game road stretch with Baltimore looming next week. Detroit is surely not good, but they've shown to be very competitive so far, with four of their five losses coming by eight points or less against far better teams than the Bengals. I'll take the Lions to cover and might even sprinkle some moneyline for them to get their first victory.
Pick: Lions +3.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Sunday, 10/17, 4:05PM EST | O/U: 49.5
Arizona is 5-0 and making waves through the opening part of the season. Kyler Murray has some throwing his name around the early MVP conversations, with 13 total touchdowns and over 1600 yards of offense. They haven't needed to rely on the run game too much, except when they get close and allow James Conner to plow it in; he's up to five rushing touchdowns so far. Despite losing their tight end, Maxx Williams (knee) for the season, the receiving corps is where Arizona makes their money though, carrying weapons like DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and A.J. Green. On the defensive side, the Cardinals will likely be without star pass rusher Chandler Jones (COVID) which would be a big hit to the unit that's held the Rams and 49ers to 20 points or less the last two weeks.
Cleveland really dropped the ball last week against the Chargers. After leading 27-21 after three quarters, they allowed the Chargers to outscore them 26-15 in the final quarter. Baker Mayfield continues to do just enough to keep the Browns in the game and has done a fine job, throwing for over 1,00 yards with just four touchdowns. It's the running game of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt that carry the load, with both having rushed for over 290 yards already with nine total touchdowns between the two of them. However, it is important to note that neither have practiced this week due to injury, so if they are able to go, they will likely not be 100%. Defensively, Cleveland ranks 12th in DVOA with a 5th ranked unit against the run. Last week against the Chargers was just a total breakdown, as it was the first time the defense has allowed over 100 rushing yards and just the second time they've given up 300 yards or more in the air.
Arizona isn't scared to move the ball around, but Kliff Kingsbury's teams do not sling it quite as well on the road. Since he took over in 2019, the under is 14-5 with Arizona on the road. The under is 4-6 when Cleveland is at home since the beginning Stefanki's coaching career, but that number isn't enough to scare me away from the under here. I look for Cleveland to continue to ground the game out, keeping the ball out of the hands of the up-tempo Arizona offense.
Pick: Under 49.5 (-112 Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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