RADIO
I was struck with a case of writer's block for the Week 16 GPP DFS stacks. But like a lot of afflictions, the more you think about it, the worse it gets. So I needed to just ignore it for a while and come back to it later. Now in hindsight, I know what part of the problem was. For this column, I usually eliminate the chalk stacks and then go from there. Perhaps it was because I had done a bunch of research and nearly every stack seemed chalky to me! I thought about referencing various sites, including RotoBaller's projected ownership. And maybe it's because I get in a weird mental place around the holidays. But that felt artificial to me--like a shopping mall Santa stand-in for the real big guy up North. Of course, by the time you read this, you will probably be Santa-ed out and looking for a reason to get out of your house. Just watching one of these travel show episodes with my wife to take my mind off things made me want to leave home!
And that's when it kind of hit me--I love the places I've called home. And I've always said I don't think I could live in a place more than an hour away from an NFL stadium. And then....the lightbulb went off! I could lie to you and list out some stacks for you that are going to be the heavy chalk. But instead, I will tell you that the three stacks I chose below are all markets I've called "Home" for at least six years each. Could they be popular stacks? Sure. Do I think they will be the most heavily owned stacks? No, they will not. For one, each of my stacks below has a quarterback with a lot of question marks, even if those question marks are some of the quarterback's weapons.
Because you know what? This is my column. So I'm gonna make it a little more like home and focus on three teams that play in markets I have called home for easily more than 20 years. Here are my just slightly more familiar than usual Week 16 GPP stack recommendations.
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The My Kind Of Town Stack
Chicago Bears
San Fransisco might actually be my favorite city in the world, but I could never afford to live there. Chicago on the other hand, for being the country's third-largest market is disproportionately affordable compared to some of the other big cities. I spent quite a few years living in the Chicagoland area, but what I often refer to as the best year of my adult life was the year I spent living in downtown Chicago. But even that year, Chicago had quarterback issues as it so often has. No different from this year! That brings us to Mitch Trubisky, who is actually playing far better ball than most realize.
Since Chicago's bye, Trubisky has an extremely solid 8:3 TD-to-INT ratio. In the last three weeks alone he has completed better than 70% of his passes and he's got Chicago on the edge of the playoffs. And I don't see those numbers dropping against Jacksonville this week. The Jaguars Defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks just 3.49% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate so far this season. They are allowing the second-highest completion rate in the league of 70% and also the second-highest touchdown rate of 6.60 percent. Even worse is they have allowed more touchdown passes than any other team in the league. Jacksonville is allowing a league-leading 0.574 fantasy points per actual pass attempt. Even just 35 attempts would result in over 20 points and that assumes the quarterback doesn't pick up a single yard on the ground. The Packers are up next week and I would not be surprised to see Matt Nagy try to give Trubisky a little confidence boost this week.
What will help of course is another great game from the Bears uber-talented WR, Allen Robinson. For the first time since week 7, Robinson saw less than half a dozen targets. Yet A-Rob still managed to rack up 83 receiving yards. That is now 11-of-14 games where he’s finished with 70-plus yards, which is still mind-boggling given the issues the Bears have had at quarterback this year. Despite the lack of aerial fireworks, Robinson is currently the ninth overall WR in PPR scoring. And this is a great match-up for Robinson.
The Jags aren't good against the pass and they've actually been getting worse due to injury. Last week's starting cornerbacks were Greg Mabin and Chris Claybrooks, a pair who have been burned for 40-of-62 passing for 599 yards and nine touchdowns over the course of their careers. I'll save you the calculations. That’s almost 10.0 yards per target and every 6.9 targets is a touchdown. Ten WRs have finished with 20-plus PPR points against the Jaguars. That is higher than Robinson's floor but certainly lower than his ceiling this week.
The other piece of this stack I like is Cole Kmet, who I highlighted in my value plays earlier this week. I will say this again--Kmet played every one of Chicago's snaps last week. Not three-fourths. Not 90%. ALL of them. His snap counts have been rising over the last month and the Bears are looking his way. Opposing TEs are seeing 2.36 PPR points per target against Jacksonville. That's the most in the league. Jags are also allowing 8.78 yards per target, with only the Jets allowing more. Even more enticing is the touchdown Jacksonville is allowing every 7.5 targets, the most in the league this season. It's not even that Jacksonville is getting burned by the studs they play. Tight ends are scoring 0.42 more PPR points per target against Jacksonville than the rest of their opponents. Eleven different tight ends have notched nearly 50 receiving yards and/or a touchdown when facing Jacksonville.
I promise you I will have at least one Chicago Bears stack this week. But let's look at another stack that might have finally resolved its QB issues.
The Philly Special Stack
Philadelphia Eagles
I can tell you that living here in the Philadelphia market, it's been a long season for Eagle fans and the interesting part is that Nick Foles ironically connects the two teams. Did you see this earlier this year?
Im still firmly on the wentz wagon, but this jawn right here is funny! pic.twitter.com/482cQuKr4I
— Steven (@Stevestrooop) September 28, 2020
I can promise you that very few are still on the Wentz wagon, but they are liking what they have seen from Jalen Hurts so far. And I hate chasing points, but Hurts did finish as the top quarterback on the week with 37.8 fantasy points and did help a few owners take down a GPP or two. Can lightning strike twice?
We need to be aware that the numbers by Hurts were more volume-driven than efficiency-driven. However, Philly has been pass-heavy this entire season. Is there any reason they would suddenly reverse that trend? Hurts' running ability doesn't hurt either, as he’s run 29 times over the last couple of weeks for 169 yards and a touchdown. However, the pass attempts didn’t suffer due to the high play count last week.
As I also mentioned earlier this week, this game should have a high play volume due to both Dallas and Philadelphia being in the top five in total plays per game. Furthermore, opposing teams are tossing a touchdown on 6.6 percent of attempts, leading to 30 passing touchdowns through 14 games, both of which rank just behind Jacksonville. Dallas has allowed a whopping 30.9 points per game. Only the Lions have been worse.
But Dallas is getting beat by quarterbacks via air and land. The 280 rushing yards they’ve succeeded to quarterbacks is the 13th-most this season. They have really struggled against mobile quarterbacks. They allowed Kyler Murray to rush for 74 yards and a touchdown. They also allowed Lamar Jackson to scamper for 94 yards and a touchdown. For a team that has allowed half a dozen quarterbacks to notch 25+ fantasy points, there is plenty of potential for another big day from Hurts.
The options to include in a Philly stack are a bit limited, but I've been on Jalen Reagor all year, I'm not jumping off now. The total number of targets is limited, but that is due to a low volume of attempts. There definitely seems to be a Jalen to Jalen connection, as Reagor does seem to be the most targeted WR. And again, this is a pretty good matchup. The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 2.06 PPR points per target. And it's not simply the level of WR the Cowboys have played. Dallas opponents are averaging 0.33 more PPR points per target against the Cowboys than they are non-Cowboys games. That is easily the worst mark in the league; no other team is even over 0.19! Should Reagor see six-plus targets in this matchup, he’s going to return some decent value.
During the short Hurts tenure, Goedert leads with 14 targets that have resulted in eight catches for 82 yards while Ertz has converted 10 targets into four catches for 77 yards. Goedert has definitely grown on me as I did more research this week. The Cowboys are just so weak against WRs, I was going to ignore Goedert. But when teams do decide to target TEs when playing Dallas, similar results follow. Tight ends facing the Cowboys are hauling in 75.7 percent of their targets, third-highest in the league. Those TEs are also scoring a TD every 10.6 targets, third-highest in the league. That results in 2.05 PPR points per target for TEs for the sixth-most in the league. Adding Godert could be the difference between cashing and taking down a GPP.
The Charm City Stack
Baltimore Ravens
So one of the things I hate about living here in PA is that they call fries with Old Bay on them, "crab fries". It infuriates me every time I see or hear it. Or perhaps I'm just pissed that the Eagles hoisted the Lombardi Trophy more recently than the Ravens. But let's ignore the past and focus on the present for now. The Ravens are currently on the outside of the playoffs and looking in, and there are probably six teams really hoping that remains the case. Because the Ravens unlike some other teams (cough Steelers cough) don't peak in the middle of the season but peak coming into the playoffs. I can promise you that no one wants to play the Ravens right now.
And that starts with the fear that Lamar Jackson puts into defensive coordinators. His fantasy owners meanwhile have seen Lamar Jackson post between 25 and 35 fantasy points each of the last three weeks. He's always a threat on the ground and has 253 yards and four rushing TDs over his last three games and remember that he got pulled early in the blowout of Jacksonville. Where the improvement has come is that Jackson has completed over 70% of his passes in four of his last six games. Furthermore, the Giants are allowing the ninth highest completion rate at 68.2%. I think Jackson's high salary will lower his ownership, meaning he could provide incredible leverage this week.
I'd pair Mark Andrews with Lamar Jackson again this week. Andrews has seen 27 targets over his last four games and scored again last week, bringing his seasonal total to seven. He has two games left to get to the 10 he had last year and that is despite missing more games this year. I think he matches last year's total. One of the Giants' bigger weaknesses on defense is at TE, where they are allowing a 70.5 percent completion-rate and 7.58 yards per target, both worse than the league average. This is actually one of the better matchups on the slate on a schedule-adjusted per-target basis as tight ends have averaged 0.02 more PPR points per target against the G-men than they have against others.
The third piece to include in this stack gets interesting as it was reported on Thursday that Marquis Brown missed practice and was added to the injury report with a knee issue. I didn't really like Brown in this matchup anyway since he was likely to be covered by James Bradberry who was recently named to the Pro Bowl. However, Bradberry doesn't usually cover the slot, so whichever WR is slated to play the slot for Baltimore is the player I will be grabbing to complete this stack. Five of the top nine wide receiver games the Giants have allowed were to slot-heavy receivers. My guess is that Snead will move into Brown's spot and that leaves either Miles Boykin or Devin Duvernay to man the slot. Neither is going to catch ten passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns. But at near or at rock-bottom salaries on both sites, they don't need to, thus providing us a huge profit opportunity.
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