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I am going to start this column by reviewing the concept of ADP, which you are likely familiar with. Fantasy football Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the average value of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.
Free agency is long over, and now the NFL Draft is in the books too. It's been just hours since the first-year player draft took happened through the past few days, so I figured it'd make sense to give my two cents on who came out as a winner and who did so as a loser after all teams picked their freshest assets in time for the 2022 season. We'll review actual ADP trends later in May to see how they have changed among fantasy GMs as we start to gear up for the real-life draft and our very own fantasy draft season. Let's get it going!
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Quarterbacks - Fantasy Football Risers
Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh Steelers
Of course, Pittsburgh had to do it. Pittsburgh the city, not the franchise. Pickett played high-school football in New Jersey but then went on to have a larger-than-average in Pitt manning the Panthers' pocket as a starter for the past four years and change. Pickett will remain in Pennsylvania as the lone QB picked in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. Of course, the Steelers signed Mitch Trubisky earlier this offseason but I'm convinced there will be a camp battle for that QB1 spot and I wouldn't rule out seeing Pickett out on the field from W1. Barring Trey Lance and the late Dwayne Haskins, all rookie-QBs drafted in the first round of the past four years went on to score 113+ FP in their first pro-seasons.
Jameis Winston - New Orleans Saints
Let me tell you one thing and one thing only: stop the Jameis hate, please and thank you. Winston is definitely not the definition of QB1 but his positives clearly outweigh his negatives. He's thrown 135 TDs against 91 INTs, only, you know, touchdowns come with a saucy bonus FP that interceptions just can't neutralize by themselves. Winston is coming off a banged-up season (just seven games played) but he's also going to stay in the franchise he's spent the last two years playing for and will see his receiving corps boosted by Michael Thomas' comeback and first-round draftee Chris Olave, a surefire top-three rookie WR.
Marcus Mariota - Atlanta Falcons
Mariota has not been a bonafide starter for two years and a half--the last time he really did so was in 2019 for the Titans before a reborn Ryan Tannehill came out of the blue and usurped his gig. The Falcons traded long-time franchise icon Matt Ryan earlier this offseason and decided to sign the veteran Mariota instead of betting on a rookie Week 1 starter. Ultimately, Atlanta ended up drafting Desmond Ridder with a third-round pick, but Ridder shouldn't be rushed into starting games. Also, Mariota's upside went clearly up with the Falcons drafting USC prospect Drake London (top-three WR) with the 8th pick of the first round. Add Kyle Pitts on top of everything and things don't look that bad for MaMa.
Matt Corral - Carolina Panthers
Pickett has the draft-capital leverage we love to find in rookie QBs. Corral, though, has the clearest possible path to starting games as soon as possible more because of Sam Darnold's own fault than Corral's goodness. Everything looked right last season for Sammy D, until it didn't. Darnold finished the year with a meh 2,527 passing yards and more interceptions (13) than TDs (9), which was never going to cut it going forward. The Panthers shouldn't be chasing Jimmy G or Baker Mayfield anymore. Corral joins a group of third-round QBs that includes last season phenom Davis Mills, so don't rule out a surprising QB2 season from the freshest Panther.
Quarterbacks - Fantasy Football Fallers
Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers
Not a lot to like about Green Bay's offense, let alone Aaron Rodgers' upside entering the 2022 season. Of course, being the multi-time MVP Rodgers is, you won't just fade him entirely and wipe him off your board. But the prospects of a QB1 finish are shaky at best. The Packers landed a rookie WR early in Day 2 (Christian Watson) and he's already considered Green Bay's second-best wideout only behind Allen Lazard--just imagine. Sammy Watkins has arrived in Wisconsin and Robert Tonyan was retained, but there is not much more to be excited about this offense after Davante Adams' departure.
Justin Fields - Chicago Bears
Does Chicago know what they are doing? It was obviously going to be impossible to fix this team with a single swing, but the Bears are going to start the 2022 season with a receiving corps featuring Darnell Mooney (good-not-great), Byron Pringle (mediocre), Equanimeous St. Brown (meh), and rookie Velus Jones at the WR position and Cole Kmet (second-best Bear) at the TE position. It's going to be way too hard for Fields to put up numbers in this environment, I'm afraid.
Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens
Lamar seemed to be hella mad while the first round of the draft was unfolding judging by his tweets and their relation to what the Ravens did without giving Jax any prior notice: trading WR1 and long-time Lamar's BFF Marquise Brown away to Arizona. Ugh. Look at Baltimore's offense and you'll notice that 1) no new legit players have arrived to bolster it, 2) Rashod Bateman is expected to be the WR1 of the team, 3) Mark Andrews is the absolute lone viable fantasy option at the WR/TE position, and 4) Jackson will have to work with a combination of Duvernay/Proche/Tylan Wallace/Jaylon Moore at the other two/three wideout positions. Good Lord.
Malik Willis - Tennessee Titans
Willis was making headlines daily before the draft kicked off last Thursday. Say goodbye to those good old times, because there is a chance you don't hear about Willis for the next 12 months. Tennessee is a great real-life place for the rookie QB to land, but a fantasy-upside killer for year one. Tannehill is going nowhere while still under contract for one more season. The veteran QB hasn't missed a single game in the past two seasons and he's been rock-strong throughout all of his career. Great development environment (and dynasty upside), but not worth a draft pick in re-draft/season-long fantasy leagues.
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