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There are good surprises and bad surprises. The 2022 NFL Draft did not disappoint in both regards. The New York Jets surprised us by actually making solid choices throughout the draft. Others make picks that were simply puzzling.
How will these choices affect our fantasy football season? That is the important question we'll address here.
Here are the biggest draft surprises and the fantasy fallout.
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills
Per Next Gen Stats, Bills quarterback Josh Allen was second to Jonathan Taylor in rushing yards gained over expected with +310. He also ranked third in quarterback carries and tied for fourth in quarterback-designed rushing touchdowns.
In 2021, Allen rushed for 763 yards with six rushing touchdowns. Cook, the third running back selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, surprised the fan base, the NFL Draft Experts, Devin Singletary, and perhaps most importantly, our fantasy teams.
Singletary has had only 100 targets over the past two seasons. Last season, he only had 5.7 yards per reception, which was second to last in the league.
Cook's collegiate career included 67 receptions for 730 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The Bills have significant draft capital on Cook. But the Bills only targeted their running backs at 14% in 2020 and 15% in 2021; as far as a running back, Singletary will most likely remain the primary back in a running back room that also currently includes Duke Johnson, Zack Moss, Taiwan Jones, and Raheem Blackshear. The surprise is, once again, the Bills searched for a running back early.
For fantasy purposes, we can appreciate the draft capital. Cook is currently being drafted as RB42 in the 13th round. The surprise will be his value should end up being a top-25 running back, especially if the Bills decide to up their passing game to the running back position. Cook can be an asset in PPR fantasy leagues.
Cade Otton - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In the fourth round, Otton was the fifth tight end off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft. The surprise is he went so late. The Buccaneers have potentially garnered a steal. According to NFL draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, "Cade Otton probably would have gone higher if he had been healthy during the spring process."
As it is, the Buccaneers have a tight end who excels as a blocker and is a true Y-tight end. You know, as they wait for Rob Gronkowski to decide whether he is playing this year.
As far as fantasy goes, even in a shallow tight-end pool, Otton is not draftable, but a waiver wire watch if Gronkowski doesn't show, as O.J. Howard is now in Buffalo.
Treylon Burks - WR, Tennessee Titans
It isn't so much as the acquisition of Burks (but it is) as the trade of A.J. Brown that was shocking.
Yes, Burks might prove to be a capable replacement, although he is experiencing a little bit of trouble. Burks was fourth in the nation in yards after the catch per reception (9.3), first in his class in yards per route run (3.57), first in yards per route run when lined up outside (6.08), and over the past two seasons, averaged 8.5 yards after catch which was in the 92nd percentile. All good. The Titans were second in rushing play percentage last season, rushing the ball 48.78% of the time. They were 26th in passing attempts per game (31.1 average,) and even in the weeks Derrick Henry did not play, the Titans called run plans at the fourth-highest rate. For fantasy football purposes, since Mike Vrable has been head coach, they have not had a wide receiver not named A.J. Brown finish higher than WR3.
Burks's current ADP is 92 and ranks as the 38th wide receiver off the fantasy boards. Both Underdog and FantasyPros currently have Burks as WR35. Monitor his health status going forward but avoid the Titan surprise. He will be sharing targets with Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Austin Hooper on a team that played 11-personnel (one tight end and three wide receivers) with a below-league average of 72% of the time and was 26th in pass attempts.
Tyrion Davis-Price - RB, San Francisco 49ers
The Athletic's draft expert, Dane Brugler, gave Davis-Price a fifth-round grade, his 11th-best running back. Grinding the Mocks, a site that aggregates mock drafts, had Davis-Price average draft slot as 208.8 and the 19th running back off the board. And ESPN had Davis-Price as the 175th-ranked player on their board and the 14th-best running back.
Now, the Niners currently have a running back room that consists of Davis-Price, Elijah Mitchell, Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson Jr., JaMycal Hasty, and undrafted rookie Jordan Mason.
But this is a Kyle Shanahan offense that ran the ball the fourth-most in the league last season (48.39%), averaging 29.3 rushing attempts per game.
Last season, the running backs for the Niners handled the ball 25.7 times per game, which was down from 2020 (30.6/game) and 2021 (31.5/game). The running game was also anemic, ranking 29th in third-down run conversions, gaining a first down on only 42.4% of their rushing attempts. They averaged 2.3 yards per carry on third-and-two or fewer yards, ranking 26th in the NFL.
They have also been plagued with injuries, with Mitchell missing six games and Wilson playing in only 57% of the games since entering the league in 2018.
But as we know, Shanahan likes the run and is looking to improve his run game offense. And we know that he will utilize his running backs fantasy, managers be damned.
It wouldn't be the first time that Shanahan proves the surprise pick of the NFL analyst is his go-to man. But for fantasy purposes, it doesn't make the fantasy draft any easier. Count on Davis-Price being fantasy relevant if he can excel during training camp and be the number two running back. His ADP at Underdog is 175.2, which puts him as RB53. It seems appropriate for now.
Cole Strange - G, New England Patriots
It isn't advisable to second guess Bill Belichick, but oh my! The New England Patriots traded back (classic Patriots) from 21st to 29th with added draft capital. But their pick at 29th was a surprise.
The Sporting News' analyst Vinnie Iyler had Cole Strange as the 93rd prospect in the 2022 class, going 90th to the Tennessee Titans. Arif Hasan of The Athletic had Strange slotted as the 76th overall prospect, while Dane Brugler's draft guide was putting Strange a consensus third-round grade.
Even general manager Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay were surprised by the pick. Perhaps believing that Strange would fall to them in the late third or early fourth round. They would later select two running backs which could be impactful for fantasy purposes but the fact they opted for Strange so early is... odd.
Quay Walker - LB, Green Bay Packers
The Packers are staying true to their DNA. They lost wide receiver Davante Adams in the offseason. That leaves a hole of 169 targets. The next highest targeted receiver for 2021 had 60 targets on the season. So classic Packers, they choose a linebacker.
Yes, the wide receiver class for the 2022 NFL Draft was deep, and they were able to land Christian Watson in the second round, and it just might work out if you believe @TheBigPellowski.
Yet, the departure of Adams is monumental. They currently have Watson, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins in their wide receiver room.
While this may be good for those drafting Watson as Watson has the best chance to start in Week 1 (Skyy Moore in Kansas City also looks good for Week 1), you are relying on athleticism and not an elite skill set. How this will play with Aaron Rodgers remains to be seen. FantasyPros has Watson’s ADP at #137, being the 59th wide receiver off the board. Football Calculator has Watson going 13.11 in PPR leagues while Moore is 14.02.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Watson tied for second in odds for winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Watson, Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Breece Hall are all currently coming in at +800.
The 2022 NFL Draft had surprises that were good for the team but not helping our fantasy football fortunes. And then of course there were head scratches team-wise that could prove a fantasy football windfall.
Training camp is next. Watch for Burks' adaptability, the Watson and Rodgers connection, and Gronkowski's status. And of course, be mindful of how your league is scored.
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