NFL Draft Reaction - WR ADP Risers

We continue this series with another look at players whose fantasy football stock is on the rise following the 2021 NFL Draft. We've already looked at RB Risers, QB Risers and TE Risers. Now, let's examine the wide receiver position.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period.

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Wide Receivers - ADP Risers

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Talk about a narrative. Bengals QB and no. 1 pick from 2020 Joe Burrow is going to reunite with his best WR at LSU in Ja'Marr Chase. Feels good, and keep in mind we're talking about two top-five picks in back-to-back years. No joke, folks. Chase was already a rather high fantasy pick in drafts before the real one took place late last week, but man is his stock skyrocketing to even higher heights these days.

Chase has gone from being a sixth-rounder to becoming a late fourth-rounder in 12-team leagues with his ADP going up more than a full draft round. That's pretty much insane, and barring earlier selections of fellow freshmen RB Najee Harris, RB Travis Ettiene, and/or TE Kyle Pitts, I find it hard to believe any rookie will be drafted before Chase throughout the fantasy draft season in redraft leagues.

The Bengals drafted another good WR in last year's draft when they picked Tee Higgins (33rd overall) to kick off the second round, and believe it or not, Higgins posted the 22nd-best season by a Bengals wide receiver in the past 21 seasons--as a rookie. Well, Chase projects to be better than Higgins, which would mean the best rookie WR in the past 22 seasons for the franchise, potentially topping A.J. Green's 218 PPR-point season as a freshman in 2014. The competition might be stiff with Higgins and Tyler Boyd sharing the field with Chase, but his connection with Burrow cannot be overlooked.

 

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Speaking of college QB-WR connections, here is the second one. With Carson Wentz out of Philly, the Eagles' offense is now Jalen Hurts' toy to handle. The sophomore will take the reins of the team for good starting this season, and rookie DeVonta Smith will have pretty much no competition for targets as the rest of the Eagles' receiving corps is comprised of second-year man Jalen Reagor, a bunch of what-if WR3 options, and Dallas Goedert/Zach Ertz at the tight end position.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer in Jalen Reagor finding his pace in the NFL this season after he only played 11 games in 2020. Reagor was limited in total FP because of his missed games, but he posted the fourth-highest FPG of all Eagles at a low 8.3 mark. That's nothing great and Reagor could only finish as a borderline top-200 player in PPR fantasy leagues, but on a full 16-game basis, he would have finished inside the top-150 players. The thing is, other than Reagor, the Eagles' options are slim at best.

Do we trust another out-of-left-field year from waiver-wire darling Travis Fulgham? Zach Ertz coming back to a TE1 level of play? Is Greg Ward scoring more than six touchdowns on another low-volume season? I'm not sure. Most fantasy GMs seem not to be, either. DeVonta Smith should take on WR2 duties from the get-go at the very least and knowing he already played with Hurts at the collegiate level only boosts his upside.

 

Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears

This is a small but great development. A-Rob's ADP has only gone up five spots since a few days before the draft to the time of this writing, nothing remarkable to call home about. That being said, though, it makes me happy for Robinson, who has endured the most putrid stable of quarterbacks a receiver could ever think of: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Nick Foles, and Tyler Bray. That would drive any wideout crazy.

Yet, all Allen Robinson II did in such situations was somehow put up excellent numbers and elevate (to a reasonable point and given the circumstances) his QBs year after year. Robinson has averaged 11.7+ PPG in all seasons he's played more than one game going back to his rookie year (he only played one game in 2017). He's topped 153 PPR points in his three years in Chicago, and he's racked up 254.9 and 262.9 FP in the last two for WR28 and WR11 finishes respectively.

Robinson's numbers were already gaudy even though he had to catch passes from Trubisky/Foles most of the time. He had 754, 1147, and 1250 yards to go with four, seven, and six touchdowns in the 2018-2020 span, which ranks 12th among WRs in total yards and 21st in total touchdowns. Again, playing for Mitch & Nick. With rookie Justin Fields now manning the pocket (nobody believes Andy Dalton will be the starter for long--if at all), Robinson will finally, we hope, have a great quarterback tossing him the rock. And the rising ADP trends are already showing how well that can bode for A-Rob.

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