RADIO
We are about three months removed from free agency. The 2018 NFL Draft has come and gone. The fantasy picture is starting to become clearer as we near draft season. Immediately following free agent signings, fantasy analysts all over had instant reactions, and rightfully so. Those reactions were based on the NFL landscape at the time. Three months later, we have a lot more information and a lot more is set in stone regarding team rosters.
While depth charts will undoubtedly shuffle between now and September, a little over a month after the NFL Draft is a great time to reassess which free agent moves actually increased the value of the players with new homes.
Sometimes free agents find it hard to adjust to their new city, teammates, coaches, playbook, etc. Other times, they see a huge boost in production and fantasy value. Today, we'll discuss the latter and identify free agents who could be fantasy risers in the 2018 NFL season.
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Free Agents Who Will Thrive
QUARTERBACKS
None
I know some will question why I do not have Kirk Cousins listed here. After all, he's on a better team with one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, a solid tight end, and a running back capable of catching passes. All that is true, but I expect Cousins to be the same Cousins we've seen throughout his career. His value is very much the same because where he will see an improvement in efficiency due to the enhanced supporting cast, the overall quality of his team will lead to a reduction in volume. I believe the two will even out.
RUNNING BACKS
Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF)
This is the most obvious one. It was the most obvious at the time, but there was concern over the 49ers drafting an early down back - someone like Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, or even Nick Chubb. None of that happened. Kyle Shanahan said he envisions Jerick McKinnon in the Devonta Freeman role and the 49ers' inaction on the RB front in the draft supports that. The Colts could very well still sign DeMarco Murray and that would definitely decrease McKinnon's value a little, but nothing to overly concern me. Murray is done and his addition would merely knock McKinnon's ADP back by maybe a round. Either way, he is poised for a significant jump in value than what we saw last year.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
In the most obvious value jump, Allen Robinson goes from a team that wants to run the ball as much as possible that is quarterbacked by Blake Bortles to a team that is clearly being built to throw more and is quarterbacked by Mitch Trubisky. I am completely sold on Trubisky as a future high-level QB. While the general population may not share that sentiment, one thing is certain - there is absolutely no way Trubisky can be anywhere near as bad as Bortles. Blake Bortles is a blight on the quarterback position and an embarrassment to pass throwers everywhere. Remember, last preseason Robinson was literally recorded at a practice lamenting over Bortles' inability resemble a professional QB, complaining "Man, keep that [stuff] in bounds" after Bortles missed ARob (for what I presume wasn't the first time) on a sideline throw, not even giving him a chance to make the catch. Robinson steps in as the clear alpha WR1 for Trubisky and although the Bears have a plethora of other weapons, Robinson is firmly atop the pecking order. He's been inefficient throughout his young career, but that certainly isn't his fault. Even if he doesn't see the volume he did in Jacksonville, he will make up for the lack of quantity with improvement in quality.
Jordan Matthews (WR, NE)
One of the last free agent WRs to sign was Jordan Matthews. You guys remember Jordan Matthews right? He's the guy with the busted up knee that completely flopped in Buffalo last season. Well, he's also the most productive WR in SEC history and the same guy who recorded 16 touchdowns across his first two seasons in the NFL. Matthews is good at football. The Eagles mismanaged his knee injury from 2016 and he never fully recovered. That is, until now. Matthews is going to be healthy entering this season and has every incentive in the world to go out and prove that he is the guy from 2014 and 2015, not the one from 2016 and 2017.
The Patriots traded away Brandin Cooks and didn't draft a WR. Chris Hogan and Julian Edelman will certainly start, but that third spot is ripe for the taking. Matthews is better than Malcolm Mitchell and Cordarrelle Patterson. I fully expect him to win it and he has the talent to leapfrog Hogan in the pecking order as well. While there are certainly (cliché alert) a lot of mouths to feed in New England, Tom Brady has supported four fantasy viable pass catchers in the past. Matthews merely has to be a WR3 to provide a positive return on the investment it would take to acquire him. And he has the upside for even more.
Cameron Meredith (WR, NO)
I am basing the Cameron Meredith increase in value on what the 2018 Bears would've looked like with him still on the roster. The best version of Meredith, for fantasy purposes, still would've been the 2017 version had he not torn his ACL and MCL. That Meredith was poised to be a target hog in a receiving corps devoid of talent. In 2018, Meredith was, at best, going to be the second option in a Mitch Trubisky offense with an abundance of talent surrounding him. We have to like him a lot better as the projected third option for Drew Brees. He still has to compete with Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Ted Ginn for targets, but that's better than competing with Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Tarik Cohen, and Taylor Gabriel. The Saints don't have a TE of consequence. Meredith will be the de facto TE. I fully expect him to be higher on the priority list than Ginn. Meredith's volume won't be anywhere near where it would've been in Chicago in 2017, but it will probably be similar to what he could've expected in Chicago in 2018 and his quality of targets will be better.
Allen Hurns (WR, DAL)
There are too very obvious things working in Allen Hurns' favor. First, he goes from Blake Bortles, one of the worst QBs in the history of professional football to start more than a full season, to Dak Prescott. That, alone, is enough to improve Hurns' outlook. More importantly, though, is he leaves the crowded Jaguars' receiving corps for the Cowboys' receiving corps mostly devoid of talent. Hurns is clearly a superior WR to Terrance Williams (because everyone is), Cole Beasley, and Deonte Thompson. Michael Gallup should ultimately be the main option, but I expect Hurns to be the number two. Being the number two in Dallas is far better than being the number three, at best, in Jacksonville.
TIGHT ENDS
Trey Burton (TE, CHI)
After spending years trapped behind Zach Ertz in Philly, Trey Burton is free to spread his wings in Chicago. He projects to have a substantial increase in target volume as a starter versus being purely a backup to start his career. Burton has been productive just about every time he's been on the field. He just hasn't had the usage necessary to be fantasy relevant outside of weeks where Ertz missed games. Even with the competition for targets in Chicago, Burton projects to be a solid TE1 in his first season as a starter.
Jimmy Graham (TE, GB)
I wavered on whether to include Jimmy Graham on this list. What ultimately pushed me towards doing so is what the Packers did in the NFL Draft. After releasing Jordy Nelson, the Packers did not prioritize a WR, but rather elected to take a shot on three in the later rounds. None of the rookie WRs project to have any significant impact. That leaves Davante Adams as the clear #1 option in the passing game without much clarity behind him. Randall Cobb is not a good player. He never has been. He's a product of Aaron Rodgers. That is not to say Rodgers won't make Cobb productive again this season, but merely that Cobb is not someone you go out of your way to use. That puts Graham in a favorable position to potentially be the second option in the passing game. I do think Graham has been completely sapped of all his speed and lateral agility, but he didn't get smaller so he's still a monster red zone threat. Worst case, he's used similar to how he was in Seattle. Best case, he's used more all over the field and returns top-five TE value.
More 2018 NFL Free Agency Analysis
