RADIO
Every week, this column will spotlight the first-year players who are ripe for a breakout performance. Oftentimes, rookies can provide some of the most value as under-the-radar options.
Last week, Dolphins rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle put forth his best outing as a professional, racking up 10 receptions for 70 yards and two touchdowns. Other top first-year performers included Steelers running back Najee Harris, who had 127 scrimmage yards and a score, and Bears tailback Khalil Herbert, who accumulated 112 scrimmage yards and also reached paydirt. Evidently, rookies can be valuable assets to fantasy managers this early in their careers.
For dynasty leagues, this column should help identify ideal trade targets and prized stashes. For redraft managers, this column could provide the edge necessary for a championship run. Some of the players in this week's article are well-known, but others are sneaky sleepers.
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The Rumbling Volcano
Mac Jones (QB, NE)
Mac Jones has yet to finish a week higher than the QB17, and he still has not surpassed the 20-point threshold in typical fantasy leagues. However, the first-rounder out of Alabama gives off the impression that he's a rumbling volcano ready to erupt given the opportunity. That opportunity may very well be this week versus the woeful New York Jets. New England already faced the Jets in Week 2, and Jones finished that game with a lackluster 186-yard, zero-touchdown stat line. Nonetheless, he has shown enough flashes in recent weeks to suggest that a breakout performance is on the horizon. His aforementioned QB17 finish came last week versus Dallas on just 21 pass attempts, the fewest of his career to this point.
MAC JONES SAID NOT SO FAST. #ForeverNE
?: #DALvsNE on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/8ptrT3gf4s— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2021
The Jets have surprisingly yielded the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks thus far, but a lot of that has been due to game script. With New York's offense becoming more competitive in recent weeks, Jones may have a chance to let loose for the full 60 minutes.
The Doghouse Escapee
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
In the season opener, Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble on one of his two touches. Subsequently, head coach Bill Belichick made the Oklahoma product a healthy scratch for the next three weeks. Stevenson, a fourth-round rookie, returned to action in Week 5 though, and he received 11 carries for an inefficient 23 yards against Houston. However, Stevenson put forth 62 scrimmage yards on just eight touches last week versus Dallas, and he also reached the endzone on a short run.
Rhamondre Stevenson's first NFL TD gives the @Patriots the lead! #ForeverNE
?: #DALvsNE on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/8YryhwYSNk— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2021
The clear escalation in Stevenson's usage in the past two games demonstrates his status as a fantasy sleeper, even as he remains behind Damien Harris on the depth chart. He will need to avoid games with two yards per carry as he had in Houston if he wants to continue getting work, but the potential for a breakthrough is there. The New York Jets, his Week 7 opponent, have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to running backs in 2021.
The Cincinnati Avenger
Chris Evans (RB, CIN)
While Chris Evans may be a running back, he has done much more damage through the air than on the ground. Indeed, he has twice as many catches as carries, and he did not have his first touch on the ground until this past week versus Detroit. Speaking of the sixth-round rookie's Week 6 showing, Evans had the best game of his young career against the Lions, putting up 67 total yards and his first NFL touchdown.
Chris Evans EXTENDS for the touchdown grab! ?
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/rU18O2WWuy
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 17, 2021
The rookie from Michigan played last week as Cincinnati's number two option in the backfield after Samaje Perine was placed on the COVID reserve list. With his efficient play—his production premium, a measure of efficiency, ranks sixth at his position—he may have just taken Perine's spot in the pecking order. Another solid showing against Baltimore this week could cement that. At the very least, Evans will continue getting work in the passing game; he has the fourth-most slot snaps of all running backs.
Evans is only rostered in 1.9 percent of ESPN leagues. Fantasy managers, assemble.
The Inconsistent Producer
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
DeVonta Smith's fantasy performances have been extremely boom-or-bust through the first six weeks of his career. In his best three games so far, Smith averaged seven catches for 90 yards. In his other three games, though, the Heisman winner from Alabama averaged a mere two grabs for 25 yards. One of those three poor games came last week against Tampa Bay, where Smith saw a career-low four targets.
Granted, a lot of this inconsistency is not his fault. His quarterback, Jalen Hurts, threw for a paltry 115 yards in Week 6; there's not much Smith can do about inadequate quarterback play. With a tough Raiders defense on tap in Week 7, it may be more likely that the tenth-overall pick has another quiet showing, but there's no saying for sure. Catch this game just to see which way the Philadelphia offense turns next.
The Ascending Lion
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
In the preseason, Amon-Ra St. Brown received a lot of attention in fantasy circles for a fourth-round rookie, but the hype train quickly derailed after he totaled just six receptions in his first three games combined. Well, get ready to buy another ticket, because the second train is about to leave the station! St. Brown's three best games in catches, yards, and targets have all come in the past three weeks, and his two highest snap shares have been from his last two games. While Detroit may not be a fantasy hotbed, St. Brown is carving out a solid role in an offense that passes the ball the sixth-most frequently in the NFL. The rookie from USC has seen at least seven targets in each of his last three outings; watch his game versus the Rams to know if the streak will continue for another week.
The Athletic Phenom
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
When we last saw Kyle Pitts, he dominated the New York Jets in London. His nine catches, 119 yards, and one touchdown made for his best game so far in his highly anticipated career. Pitts, who was the highest-drafted tight end in the modern era at fourth-overall, will be scrutinized this week in what could be an encore performance two weeks after his breakout.
According to PFF, Pitts' matchup against Miami safety Brandon Jones is the third-largest mismatch for a tight end this week, behind just Travis Kelce's and Tyler Higbee's matchups. While the Dolphins have been approximately league average in defending tight ends this season, they have yet to face one who is 6'6" and runs a 4.49 40-yard dash. Expect the former Florida Gator to turn in another top TE performance in Week 7.
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