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The three biggest favorites of Week 9 not only almost loss but all went to the final snap. The Chiefs beat the Panthers by two after Carolina missed a 67-yard field goal. The Steelers hung on to beat the Cowboys after a last-second shot at the end zone. And the Patriots scored 13 points in the final six minutes, including a field goal as time expired, to beat the Jets.
Underdogs went eight and five against the spread with one pick 'em and four outright upsets. The biggest upset was the Dolphins beating the Cardinals as six-point dogs. My survivor recommendations went 5-0. My avoids went 0-1 with the Titans beating and covering against the Bears.
Week 10 kicks off with an AFC South battle between the Colts and Titans. The Cowboys, Falcons, Chiefs, and Jets are all on bye.
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Survivor League Week 10
Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 10; Packers -13 vs. Jaguars, Saints -9 vs. 49ers, and Ravens -7 @ Patriots. The Steelers were an 8.5-point favorite but that game as of Tuesday is off the board due to Ben Roethlisberger being on the COVID list.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 10
Packers -13 vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville is one of the three worst teams in football. Their defense is so bad allowing 31 points per game, 31st in the league. Aaron Rodgers will have fun decimating this secondary which ranks in the bottom five. He'll face no pressure whatsoever as Jacksonville is dead last in sacks per game with just one.
Packers 41 - Jaguars 14
Bucs -4.5 @ Panthers
This line opened at six but moved down a point and a half after the Bucs lost 38-3 to the Saints on Sunday night. I would've backed Tampa Bay at six but now I get an even better price. Tom Brady will be so focused at practice this week after that embarrassing thumping.
It must be noted Carolina's offense ranks higher in yards per play and in converting third down's. However both offenses have 32 passing plays of 20+ yards, which ranks tied for fifth. Tampa's defense is third in yards per play while Carolina's is 17th. Back the team off the humiliating loss on national television.
Bucs 28 - Panthers 20
Ravens -7 @ Patriots
Baltimore has one of top defenses in the league statistically; first in points per game, second in getting off the field on third down, and sixth in yards per play. New England's offense is just awful. Something is clearly wrong with Cam Newton because the Patriots seemed to run so often on early downs, only throwing when needing to. Newton now says he has a sore neck from a big hit. Their offense is 19th in yards per play and 25th in touchdowns in the red zone. But what's more startling is they are dead last in passing plays of more than 20 yards and 40 yards. They have just one passing play that went for more than 40 yards all season.
New England's defense has really struggled against the run. They allow 132 yards on the ground per game, 26th in the league. That won't bode well against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Ravens 24 - Patriots 16
Saints -9 vs. 49ers
New Orleans is not an explosive team ranking in the bottom half of passing plays of more than 20 yards. But they're meticulous and don't go backwards. They're only 12th in yards per play but first in converting on third down. The Saints have turned it over just seven times all season, fourth best in the league. Their pass rushers got to Brady time and time again Sunday night.
The 49ers are absolutely decimated on both sides of the ball, but they'll make this game competitive after having a couple extra practice days since they last played on Thursday.
Saints 26 - 49ers 20
Eagles -3.5 @ Giants
This play fits into my favorite trend; road favorite off a bye. It hits at about 70 percent against the spread and even higher when the favorite has a losing record. The Eagles are also reportedly a lot healthier especially coming off their bye week.
Eagles 31 - Giants 10
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
This will be the first time in this column's history that I do not have a team to avoid. I like all the big favorites to win this week.
Best Bets for Week 10
- Rams -2 vs. Seahawks - If Jared Goff doesn't face a pass rush, he will torch this anemic Seahawks secondary.
- Bears +2.5 vs. Vikings - Home underdog on Monday night. Kirk Cousins is 0-4 against the Bears since he joined Minnesota. They've averaged 14 points per game in those four games.
- Eagles -3.5 @ Giants - Road favorite off a bye.
*I would definitely buy the half point on the Eagles and Bears to bring them both to three.*
Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2020 season total: 15-12
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
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