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Before putting money on a game, check who the referees are. If Shawn Hochul is the head ref, I will not touch it anymore. What he and his crew did during the Raiders-Cowboys Thanksgiving bout was nothing short of egregious. 28 combined penalties for 276 yards including the final pass interference that put the Raiders in field goal range. Pathetic. And for the NFL, who is now making deals with gambling companies, to allow the refs to throw that many flags is baffling. We're wagering real money on this stuff.
Week 12 saw the biggest favorite, the Cowboys, go down. There may be about a dozen to two dozen remaining entrants left in survivor.
For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season so let's start with that.
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Teams favored by 7+ in Week 13
Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Rams -12.5 vs. Jaguars, Bucs -11 at Falcons, Chiefs -10 vs. Broncos, Colts -8.5 at Texans, Cardinals -7.5 at Bears, Vikings-7 at Lions.
Teams on bye this week; Browns, Packers, Panthers, Titans
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 13
Rams -12.5 vs. Jaguars
This is a get right game for LA. They've lost three in a row, Matthew Stafford is banged up, they're simply in a rut. Their defense though has been playing very well, allowing 4.7 yards per play in their last three, fifth best in the league. They face a Jaguars team that's scored 13.7 points in their last three.
I expect the Rams to get back to the run against a Jags defense allowing 149 yards per game in their last three, third-worst in that span.
Rams 34 - Jaguars 10
Bucs -11 @ Falcons
While I expect the Bucs to win here, this line shocked me. 11 points on the road against a division rival!? I don't think Atlanta is any good, but Matt Ryan is great in garbage time so a backdoor cover will be there for the taking.
Bucs 38 - Falcons 28
Chiefs -10 vs. Broncos
Winners of four in a row, Kansas City now has a full game lead in the AFC West. Andy Reid off a bye in his career is 19-3. Their defense is playing really good, ranked 9th in opponent yards per play in their last three. The Broncos offense is not explosive as they rank in the bottom half in big plays through the air. Teddy Bridgewater will not be 100 percent for this one. Look for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to continue rolling.
Chiefs 27 - Broncos 16
Colts -8.5 at Texans
If you can stop Jonathan Taylor, you can beat Indy. That's not good news for Houston. They allow 135 rushing yards per game, second worst in the NFL. They allowed 157 yards on 34 carries to the Jets Sunday. The Jets average 86 rushing yards. This could be a long afternoon for Houston.
Colts 30 - Texans 17
Cardinals -7 at Bears
Arizona should be all healthy off their bye in this spot. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins should be back. The Bears offense is just awful to watch. They've scored three touchdowns in their last two games.
Cardinals 24 - Bears 14
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
Vikings -7 at Lions
If you've made it this far in survivor, do you really want to put your faith in Kirk Cousins? Minnesota had their chance to make a big playoff push, but they blew it against the Niners. People though Detroit would get their win against the Bears on Thanksgiving and now they're being written off again. If Detroit wins this one, I expect Mike Zimmer to get fired Monday.
Lions 23 - Vikings 20
Eagles -6.5 at Jets
If you can take away the Eagles' ability to run, you'll win. That's exactly what the Giants did Sunday. They dared Jalen Hurts to throw and he couldn't. He was 14/31 for 129 yards and three interceptions. He has not thrown for 200 yards since a Week 7 blowout loss to the Raiders. The Jets will be able to contain the running game as they rank 13th in run stop win rate.
Eagles 21 - Jets 20
Best Bets
- Cowboys -4.5 at Saints - New Orleans has no offense and Dallas should be getting back CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper.
- Lions +7 vs. Vikings - If Kirk Cousins and Minnesota can cover this number, so be it.
- Dolphins -5.5 vs. Giants - Miami is rolling.
Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2021 season total: 17-18-1
- 2020 season total: 24-27
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
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