RADIO
Last week I railed against the referees, but after what this past week showed, some coaches were simply horrendous. From Mike McCarthy running that awful fake punt, to Anthony Lynn's numerous mistakes, it was downright awful. Everyone is going after Lynn for the debacle at the goal line with under 20 seconds left and rightly so. But had they just kicked a field goal on 4th-and-1 from the Bills 25 down 10 at the beginning of the fourth is beyond me. Take the points! The Jets did it too. They were down 10 at the start of the fourth, with 4th-and-1 from the Dolphins 17 and they go for it and of course miss it. Kick the field goal, go down one possession, and we have a game. The analytics movement has gotten out of control. Coaches now think they need to go for it or they'll get crushed by the media. Coaches need to go back to basics, take the points when necessary. Andy Reid was getting killed on social media for kicking a field goal on 4th-and-goal from the Bucs one on the opening possession. Well, he was right. The Chiefs won that game by three points. And then Monday night, Doug Pederson went for it down 11 with about six minutes left from the Seahawks 15.
Anyway, as for Week 12, underdogs went 9-7 against the spread. There were FOUR outright upsets, none bigger than the 49ers beating the Rams as five-point dogs. I myself took the Niners in my losers pool and was knocked out.
Week 13 has no Thursday night game due to COVID rescheduling. The Bucs and Panthers are on bye.
Survivor League Week 13
Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 13; Chiefs -14 vs. Broncos, Dolphins -11.5 vs. Bengals, Vikings -9.5 vs. Jaguars, Raiders -7.5 @ Jets,
Lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 13
Chiefs -14 vs. Broncos
If you're still alive in survivor pools, you've most probably used the Chiefs, but if for some crazy way you haven't, this is a no-brainer.
Chiefs 38 - Broncos 13
Raiders -7.5 @ Jets
I am such a fool to have taken the Jets last week, even making it my best bet. They are simply atrocious. The Jets rank last in yards per play, third down offense, and red zone offense. It's unclear who's even calling the offensive plays. Adam Gase has simply not been fired, because he is the best chance for the Jets to get the number one pick.
The Raiders are a physical team who will get back to basics this week after their blowout loss in Atlanta. Derek Carr struggles mightily in cold weather, but temperatures should be in the 40's Sunday.
Raiders 23 - Jets 10
Dolphins -11.5 vs. Bengals
The Bengals have no offense without Joe Burrow. Brandon Allen is serviceable but no real threat. The Dolphins Defense on paper is average, but when you watch them, they look a lot better. They have the third-most takeaways in the league, which will not bode well for the Bengals offense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick knows what he needs to do to get a win and they'll do just that. But they won't cover.
Dolphins 24 - Bengals 14
Vikings -9.5 vs. Jaguars
The running game is the key to the Vikings offense. When Kirk Cousins fakes a handoff, and has Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen streaking across the field, Cousins makes a perfect throw. The Jaguars are bottom five against the run. Even if Dalvin Cook doesn't play, Alexander Mattison should shred their run defense.
The Vikings Defense has been playing a lot better in their last three games. Mike Zimmer will have a plan ready to stymie Mike Glennon or whoever starts for them.
Vikings 34 - Jaguars 17
Packers -9 vs. Eagles
The Eagles need to make a quarterback change. Carson Wentz has been a disaster. He throws it too late, is inaccurate, underthrows it. He's not the same since he tore his ACL. And Doug Pederson and the Eagles won't start Jalen Hurts because they won't admit they were wrong giving Wentz his monster contract. Hurts got two snaps and actually looked decent. The second-round pick is more mobile and could have given the Eagles offense a real spark. If Wentz starts Sunday, it's going to be another disaster. You can run on the Packers, but when you need to throw, their pass rush will get to you.
The Eagles Defense has been remarkable, keeping them in all these games. They rank fifth in opponent yards per play and third down defense. But there's only so much a defense can do to Aaron Rodgers. You can slow him down, but eventually, Rodgers will get his. This game will be a blowout unless Jalen Hurts starts.
Packers 30 - Eagles 16
Seahawks -7.5 vs. Giants
Seattle is doing what they do best; getting hot in December. Their defense, which is statistically one of the worst against the pass in history, has been playing a lot better. Russell Wilson isn't making mistakes. Their schedule the rest of the way; vs. Giants, vs. Jets, @ Washington, vs. Rams, @ 49ers. They can run the table.
The Giants seem likely to have Colt McCoy under center. He's serviceable, but won't be able to go toe-to-toe with Wilson. New York's defense has been a lot better, but Wilson is too good.
Seahawks 27 - Giants 17
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
Steelers -10.5 vs. Washington
Ravens -7 vs. Dallas
I'm going to group these two together due to all the COVID rescheduling that has happened. On a normal week with normal rest, the Steelers and Ravens should take care of business, no problem. However, the Steelers and Ravens played Wednesday. Pittsburgh is scheduled to play Monday, Baltimore on Tuesday. The Ravens have been dealing with a COVID outbreak They haven't been able to practice. Their schedules are totally different than normal and I think it takes a toll. They both could win, but there are better options available.
Best Bets for Week 13
- Raiders -7.5 @ Jets
- Seahawks -7.5 vs. Giants
- Titans -6 vs. Browns - Tennessee has too much offense and the Browns can't play catch up.
Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2020 season total: 19-17
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
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