RADIO
It has been one top-heavy year. Since Week 4, teams favored by more than a touchdown are 28-1 straight up. That is insane.
Only five more weeks of the regular season, but at least we finally get a full slate for the first time since Week 3.
With nearly all participants in survivor pools eliminated, you may not find a need to read this column. However, some survivor pools have restarted. There's still plenty of good tidbits to help you with your daily fantasy squads. Plus, my best bets against the spread are at the bottom of this column.
Nuggets from Week 12
- Vikings have held Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers to under 200 passing yards
- Blake Bortles threw for 31 yards on seven passes in the first half
- Falcons had three red zone fumbles
- After rushing for 94 yards on nine carries in the first half, Saquon Barkley had four attempts for seven yards in the second half
Survivor League Strategy
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved. Teams italicized are my best bets.
Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
Teams favored by more than seven in Week 13 per The Action Network app (home team in caps):
- Chiefs -15 @ RAIDERS
- PACKERS -14 vs. Cardinals
- SEAHAWKS -10 vs. 49ers
- Rams -10 @ LIONS
- TITANS -7.5 vs. Jets
- Saints -7.5 @ COWBOYS
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
Teams on bye: NO MORE BYES!
Top Survivor Picks for Week 13
In order of my favorite selections:
Rams -10 @ LIONS and Chiefs -15 @ @RAIDERS
We'll do these first two games together because they both fit under the same category: road favorite off a bye. Since 2002, road favorites off a bye are 61-24 against the spread (72%). RJ Bell was on the Against All Odds podcast with Cousin Sal last year and explained this trend at the 47:35 mark.
"The team that's traveling is clearly better. Because you can't be favored on the road unless you're clearly better. But because you're clearly better, you have the distractions on the road. You might be looking ahead. You might be a little beat up from last week. Whatever it is, it's going to cause you not to play your best game; you're more susceptible to a team you think you should easily beat, even more susceptible on the road.
That's why road favorites are so dangerous. Well, when you have a bye, all that stuff goes out the window. If you haven't played for two weeks, you're not going to look ahead. You're going to be focused on that team. You're not going to be tired. All the things that make traveling tough, you have that total focus."
There you have it, folks.
SEAHAWKS -10 vs. 49ers
Seattle is rolling with a clear path at the playoffs while the Niners are preparing to get a top-three pick. Ever since Jimmy Garoppolo was lost to the season in Week 3, the Niners have simply imploded. They've lost twice to the Cardinals (Arizona's only wins), lost at home in a national television spot to the lowly Giants, and were just routed by the Bucs. Their season is done. Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch know they won't be fired, so they don't have to win for their jobs. They will face a raucous crowd ready to welcome the Seahawks back home after an enormous victory. Nick Mullens doesn't stand a chance.
Seahawks 34 - 49ers 13
Panthers -3.5 @ BUCS
Carolina has lost three in a row, and everyone is off their bandwagon. So they got blown out to the Steelers on a short week in which they had to travel, lost to Detroit because Cam Newton overthrew a wide open receiver in the end zone, and then was a fourth down stop away this past Sunday against the Seahawks. Tampa has just ended their four-game losing streak so that gets them off the schneid for some time.
My favorite reason to pick against the Bucs is because they love to give the ball away. Although they just had their first turnover-free game since Week 1, they've turned it over a league-high 29 times, six more than the next team. They don't even force turnovers as they are the second-worst in the league in that department. Carolina ranks in the middle in taking the ball away, but are sixth-ranked in giving it away with only 11 on the season.
Newton is going to have fun picking apart the 31st-ranked defense in terms of opponent yards per play and the worst team in opponent red zone scoring touchdown percentage.
Carolina beat Tampa 42-28 a month ago, and I expect a similar result.
Panthers 35 - Bucs 17
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
Cardinals +14 @ PACKERS
This is a ton of points for a bad team to lay. Forget this game is at Lambeau, I've seen all I need out of this Packers team. This is their fourth game against a bad team at home (Bills, 49ers, Dolphins). They won all three of those, but it never really felt like Green Bay dominated those games start to finish. They should have lost to the Niners, the Dolphins sunk themselves in the first half, yet only trailed 14-9 at the half.
Arizona is a bad team, but they can get pressure on the quarterback. They are second in team sacks while the Packers have allowed the third-most sacks and are 12th in quarterbacks hits allowed.
Green Bay will win this game, but I'd take the Cardinals first quarter and first half. Arizona is averaging 10.3 points in the first quarter through their last three games, most in the NFL, while Green Bay is one point behind. The Packers will then pull away in the second half.
Packers 31 - Cardinals 19
BENGALS +5 vs. Broncos
Under Vance Joseph, the Broncos are 0-6 in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast. They've lost those games by an average 18.5 points. Andy Dalton is done for the year, and I expect people to get suckered into the Broncos after they beat the Steelers. But they didn't beat the Steelers; the Steelers gave that game away. You can't win when you're minus four in the turnover margin, in which two of those turnovers were in the end zone. Denver is just not a good football team. Their defense is 21st in opponent yards per play, and 18th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
This game is more about me picking against the Broncos than taking the Bengals. If the Chargers didn't have awful clock management two weeks ago and Steelers didn't hand them the game, Denver would be on a four-game losing streak. They muster about two to three good drives all game, and that's not enough as a road favorite.
Colts -4.5 @ JAGUARS
This line makes me a little nervous. The Colts are red hot, winners of five in a row, while the Jags have lost seven in a row, fired their offensive coordinator and benched Blake Bortles in favor of Cody Kessler. Leonard Fournette is suspended. This is an insulting line to the Colts. Vegas is begging you to take the Colts, which is why, you take the Jags.
Jets +7.5 @ TITANS
When Tennessee is expected to play well, they falter. When they aren't expected to play well, they surprise. Before Tennessee lost Monday night, they were installed as 10.5-point favorites. As bad as the Jets have been though, 7.5 is still too much. The Titans average 17.7 points per game, 29th in the league. The Jets average 20 per game.
The Rest
Saints -7.5 @ COWBOYS (Thursday night) - This line may seem too high, but when New Orleans has beaten five consecutive opponents by double digits, the line has to be this high. It's also high because the Cowboys are one of the most overrated teams in football. They nearly hit rock bottom after their home loss a month ago to the Titans. They then beat the Eagles, Falcons (on road) and the Redskins on Thanksgiving. Which of those teams are good? Philly is a mess and should have lost to the lowly Giants. The Falcons don't know how not to shoot themselves in the foot, and the Redskins started Colt McCoy — who hadn't started a game since 2014 — and couldn't tackle on defense. Now America is infatuated with Dallas. If they put up a good fight Thursday night, I'll start believing in them.
FALCONS +1 vs. Ravens - As awful as the Falcons have been, I like taking a home dog who's had extra time to prepare. The Ravens offense is shaky, and the Falcons can move the ball, especially at home.
Bears - @ GIANTS (No line) - Whatever the line is, stay away. The Bears defense should dominate, but can Eli Manning do the unthinkable?
Browns +6 @ TEXANS - I still believe the Texans are overrated while the Browns are playing well after two wins in a row. Cleveland only sits one game out of a playoff spot.
Bills +4.5 @ DOLPHINS - Divisional rivalry with two solid defenses, but both below-average offenses. This is a three-point game.
PATRIOTS -5.5 vs. Vikings - The Vikings have so many weapons, but something just doesn't seem right with them. Which Kirk Cousins will show up is the deciding factor here. Minnesota has a better roster, but the Patriots will somehow get the job done and cover.
STEELERS -3 vs. Chargers (Sunday night) - Pittsburgh finally had their stinker, losing a game they literally handed away. They now return home in a prime-time spot, one they've excelled in. Since 2014, the Steelers are 9-2 at home in prime-time (those two losses came to their arch-rival Ravens).
Redskins +6.5 @ EAGLES (Monday night) - Did Philly finally overcome their swoon with their come-from-behind second half win against the Giants? I don't think so. Washington had an extra four days to prepare for this one, and Colt McCoy had more time to get in sync with the offense.
My Running Season Total
- This week: Rams -10, Panthers -3 (buying the half-point), Bengals +5
- Last week: 2-1
- Best bet ATS record: 16-19-1
Good luck RotoBallers, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 14.
