NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 4): Targets and Avoids

There's always one week of the football season that's known as survivor doomsday and that was the case in Week 3.

The Vikings, 16.5-point favorites, lost at home to the Bills knocking more than half of remaining survivor entries out in most pools. If you went contrarian and took the Jaguars as 10-point home favorites against the Titans, you're also out. If you avoided those two teams and went with the Patriots, 7-point road favorites, you had a rough Sunday night. The Texans, as 6.5-point home favorites were manhandled by the Giants. The favorites that did win: Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, Dolphins, Rams, Bears, and Seahawks.

I'm not sure how much longer survivor pools will continue with 90% of Week 1 entries most likely eliminated. However, some survivor pools will start again. If not, there's still plenty of good tidbits to help you with your daily fantasy squads. Plus, my best bets against the spread at the bottom of the column.

Nuggets from Week 3

• Eli Manning was 25/29 with 10.2 yards per attempt, his highest mark since 2009
• Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 400 yards in three consecutive games, the first in NFL history to do so
• Drew Brees is completing passes at an 80% rate this season
• The Cardinals scored 14 points on their first two drives and no points the rest of the game
• Neither the Titans nor Jaguars had any plays inside their opponents 10-yard line
• Kerryon Johnson became the first Lions running back to eclipse 100 rushing yards in a game since Reggie Bush in 2013
• Khalil Mack has more sacks (four) than the entire Raiders defense (three). It really is hard to find an elite pass rusher, Jon Gruden

Survivor League Strategy

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved.

I will also be giving out my three top plays against the spread. I will italicize those three teams. It will look like this: Patriots -7 vs. Jets. The team I like in any given game against the spread will be first.

No rules anymore especially after this past week.

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week. There will be a game or two a week where the line makes NO SENSE where they are begging you to bet one side. When the spread looks like an easy cover, it rarely is. Vegas is giving you an inside scoop and they're mostly always right. I will point those spreads out each week.

Teams favored by more than seven in Week 3 per sportsbook (home team in caps):

• CHARGERS -10.5 vs. 49ers
• PACKERS -10 vs. Bills
• JAGUARS -7.5 vs. Jets
• PATRIOTS -7 vs. Dolphins

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

Teams on bye: Redskins, Panthers

Top Survivor Picks for Week 4

In order of my favorite selections:

PACKERS -10 vs. Bills

Buffalo just pulled off the biggest upset in 23 years. They got their win. That's it for them for a while. This is the still the horrid Buffalo Bills. They now have to travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers who are off a road loss. Aaron Rodgers may very well be banged up, but he's still one of the best even on one leg.

Green Bay's defense is eh, but the Bills offense is tied for last in yards per play with four. I can't see the Packers losing this one at home.

Packers 30 - Bills 10

CHARGERS -10.5 vs 49ers

Can this game look any easier? The Chargers off a loss against a team that just lost its best player, Jimmy Garapollo, to the season. C.J. Beathard is takes over and he was atrocious last year in five starts; four touchdowns, six picks, 55% completion, and 6.4 YPA. How in the world is this Niners offense going to keep pace with the high-octane Chargers offense? San Diego  has scored 28, 31, and 23 in their three games while the Niners defense has allowed 29.7 points per game, 27th in the league.

The Chargers have a propensity to keep winnable games tighter than they should, but they will go pedal to the metal in this one much-needed win.

Chargers 38 - 49ers 13

PATRIOTS -7 vs. Dolphins 

I threw out some stats last week showing how good the Patriots were off a loss. That trend obviously did not hold up, but it will this week. New England hasn't lost three in a row since 2002. The last time they lost back-to-back was in 2015. They ended that losing skid by crushing the Texans on national television 27-6.

The Dolphins are 3-0, but it's a deceiving one. They played the Titans in a weird eight-hour game, the Jets, and Raiders. They may very well be the good bad team this season.

New England always play best when the sky is falling.

Patriots 34 - Dolphins 23

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

Lions +3 @ COWBOYS

Dallas is bad, really bad. They're averaging an anemic 13.7 points per game, second-worst. They're 31st in third down conversion percentage. Dak Prescott has thrown for 170, 160, and 168 yards in the first three games. Their defense is allowing a league best 4.3 opponent yards per play, but now are without their most valuable player Sean Lee for several weeks.

Maybe the Lions turned the corner after a wire-to-wire win against New England Sunday night. They may finally be a two-dimensional offense after they finally got the running game going with the two-headed attack of Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount.

These teams are both below average, but I'll take the much better quarterback in this one.

Lions 26 - Cowboys 16

Bengals +5 @ FALCONS

This will be a shootout. The total opened at 48 and has been bumped up to 51. The Falcons don't have much of a defense after their rash of injuries. The Bengals defense is better, but the Falcons offense has too many weapons. I lean toward the Bengals with the points because the Falcons have lost five in a row at home to AFC teams.

Falcons 30 - Bengals 28

RAIDERS -2.5 vs. Browns

Oakland is winless so far not because of their offense, rather the defense. I wonder why. They're tied for last in opponent yards per play and are in the bottom half of the league in getting off the field on third down.

The Raiders offense has been terrific led by Derek Carr. Carr is completing 76.6% of his passes with 8.43 YPA. The offense is eighth in third down conversion percentage, 11th in yards per play, and third in time of possession. The Browns defense is very good with a lot of talent. I'm not nervous of Baker Mayfield because the Raiders now have tape of him. The Raiders will play desperate and get their first win.

Raiders 27 - Browns 19

JETS +7.5 vs. Jaguars 

The Jets defense is very good and have the extra three days to prepare for Blake Bortles. Todd Bowles will begin calling defensive plays inside the two-minute warning. In a game where the first to 17 will win, seven points is too much to lay.

Jaguars 19 - Jets 14

The Rest 

Vikings +6.5 @ RAMS (Thursday night) - The Rams have been the best team in football, but now face their first real test. The Vikings are a crushing loss to the Bills so they should rebound. Mike Zimmer will have his defense ready to slow down the Rams. This will be a close one.

BEARS -3 vs. Bucs - The Bears are off a game they had no business winning. That's what happens when you have a world-class defense that can keep you in any game. The Bears pass rush will feast on Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Bucs have allowed 23 quarterback hits, fourth most. The issue here lies with Mitchell Trubisky who has averaged 5.68 YPA, 26th in the league. I think Matt Nagy will have a trick play up his sleeve that will be just enough to give the Bears their third straight victory in this low-scoring affair.

COLTS -1.5 vs. Texans - Indy should have beaten the Eagles Sunday. It felt like they outplayed them. When you delve into the stats, you'll find the Colts were 1/5 in the red zone. That's where the game was lost. The Texans have won in Indianapolis just twice in their 16-year history. They need a win here to not only save their season, but also Bill O'Brien's job.

TITANS +3.5 vs. Eagles - Tennessee has been a gritty tough-minded team so far without any real quarterback play. Philly's offense has been underwhelming, but that's because their offense is really banged up. This will be a low-scoring game and I like the home dog.

GIANTS +3.5 vs. Saints - Eli Manning is a vastly different quarterback when he has time to throw (you can say that about anyone, but he's never been nimble and elusive so if the pocket collapses, he's done). The Saints have struggled getting any pressure on the quarterback this year recording five sacks and 12 quarterback hits, bottom ten in the league.

New York will return home rejuvenated after their win and will continue their momentum in another shootout.

CARDINALS +3 vs. Seahawks - Arizona should have won last week. Josh Rosen now starts for them in a desperate situation. He can't be any worse than Sam Bradford was the first three weeks. Seattle's win against Dallas Sunday was ugly.

Ravens +3 @ STEELERS (Sunday night) - The last six games have been decided by an average of 5.83 points. I lean toward Baltimore because the Steelers defense has been a dumpster fire. They're allowed 737 passing yards their last two games and Joe Flacco is playing much better. The Ravens defense is good and they will make one more play than the Steelers that will be the difference.

BRONCOS +5.5 vs. Chiefs (Monday night) - Five points is a lot for a team with a strong home field advantage on Monday night. The Broncos are 6-3 in their last nine prime-time home games. Denver will be loud and the defense feeds off the crowd. The Chiefs defense is horrendous that the Broncos will be able to move the ball consistently, sustain long drives to keep the Chiefs offense off the field. I've shorted the Chiefs the past two weeks so I ain't stopping now.

My Running Season Total

• Best bet ATS record: 3-6
• This week: Chargers -10.5, Patriots -7, Broncos +5.5
• Last week: 2-1

Good luck RotoBallers, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 5.

More Weekly Lineup Prep