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Week 4 of the NFL returned to normalcy with the big favorites winning easily, except for the Chargers.
Not so many big favorites this week, but some intriguing options nonetheless.
With more than 90% of survivor pools eliminated, you may not find a need to read this column. However, there's still plenty of good tidbits to help you with your daily fantasy squads. Plus, my best bets against the spread at the bottom of this column.
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Nuggets from Week 4
- Seattle won with zero third-down conversion
- Atlanta has not turned the ball over their last two games, scored 37 and 36 points, and lost both
- Pittsburgh hasn't scored in the second half of their last two games
- The Chargers need a new kicker, obviously
- Jacksonville possessed the ball a whopping 37 minutes and 35 seconds to the Jets 22:25
- The Packers recorded their first shutout since 2010 when they defeated the Jets 9-0
Survivor League Strategy
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved.
I will also be giving out my three top plays against the spread. I will italicize those three teams. It will look like this: Patriots -7 vs. Jets. The team I like in any given game against the spread will be first.
Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
Teams favored by more than seven in Week 3 per The Action Network app (home team in caps):
- PATRIOTS -10 vs. Colts
- Rams -7.5 @ SEAHAWKS
- PANTHERS -7 vs. Giants
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
Teams on bye: Bears, Bucs
Top Survivor Picks for Week 5
In order of my favorite selections:
PATRIOTS -10 vs. Colts
New England is ready to go on a big winning streak. Fresh off a dominating win against their division-rival Dolphins, they get to a face a team that hasn't beaten them in their last seven tries. Furthermore, Indy is off a grueling overtime loss and it wasn't just a quick overtime loss, it was a full extra quarter. The Pats cruised on Sunday and the game was over at halftime.
The Pats are 4-0 on Thursday night games since 2011. They'll take an early lead and never look back.
Patriots 31 - Colts 13
CHIEFS -3 vs. Jaguars
Kansas City is off an enormous win, one they had no business winning after the Broncos blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. This is a short week for them and they may overlook the Jaguars in anticipation of their battle in Foxborough next Sunday night, but their talent should be enough to beat Jacksonville.
Led by Patrick Mahomes, they are the highest-scoring team with 36 points per game. Their defense stinks, but Blake Bortles will have to face a raucous crowd at Arrowhead. The Jags are 22nd in scoring averaging 22 points. They simply will not be able to keep up with the Chiefs offense. They need to play from ahead, but that's unlikely. Kansas City is first in first quarter scoring, 13, while the Jags rank 15th with five. I understand the Jags defense is one of the best, but this is an offensive league now. Unless they're holding the Chiefs to less than 17 points, they have no shot.
I've been shorting the Chiefs all season and now that I pick them, they'll drop their first of the season.
Chiefs 27 - Jaguars 13
SEAHAWKS +7.5 vs. Rams - This is the first Rams game outside the state of California. Everyone continues to give Seattle no credit. The Rams had the extra time to prepare for this game playing on Thursday night last week. The Rams are the best team in football, but the Seahawks have won back-to-back. Their two losses were by three and seven points. The Rams will win, but Seattle will keep it close.
Rams 31 - Seahawks 27
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
PANTHERS -7 vs. Giants
Two weeks ago I warned you to avoid the Texans as a touchdown favorite against the Giants. This is another game Vegas is begging you to throw Carolina in a teaser against the boring Giants. The Panthers are off a bye which may get you to believe they'll come out hot, but that's incorrect. Since Ron Rivera became head coach in 2011, they are 4-5 straight up and against the spread off a bye. Eli Manning is known to screw up your teaser or moneyline parlay.
Who even knows which Cam Newton we'll see? It sounds like the Giants will get Olivier Vernon, their star pass-rusher, back for this game. That'll surely bolster a defense that ranks 12th in opposing yards per game.
Panthers 23 - Giants 21
TITANS -3.5 @ BILLS
This is the ultimate trap game for a Titans team off wins against the Jaguars and defending champion Eagles. I really don't see a path for Buffalo beating the Titans. The only way Buffalo can win this game is if the Titans beat themselves. I'm skeptical, but the Titans defense should bottle up the Bills offense.
Titans 26 - Bills 20
Dolphins +6.5 vs. Bengals
Everyone loves the Bengals after their last-second win against the Falcons. Everyone who was on the Dolphins bandwagon after their 3-0 start, is now off of it after they got crushed by New England. Funny how one week can change everything in the NFL.
When Andy Dalton is pressured, he's a whole another quarterback. Miami can rush the passer and that'll greatly impact Dalton. Cincy can't blow anyone out and this is major overreaction to Miami getting manhandled by New England.
Bengals 23 - Dolphins 20
Raiders +5.5 vs. Chargers
I think we all learned a valuable lesson last week: do not bet the Chargers as a home favorite. Since 2015, they are 7-12 against the spread as a home favorite. This defense that everyone touted in the off-season let C.J. Beathard throw for 298 yards with 8.05 yards per attempt. Derek Carr has been fantastic this season and he will be able to throw on the Chargers.
This line is two-and-a-half points too high. The Chargers have no home-field advantage. The Raiders used to play in LA and they still have a large fan base there. The stadium will be about 65% Oakland fans. This line should be three.
Chargers 31 - Raiders 30
The Rest
Ravens -3 @ BROWNS - The Ravens have defeated the Browns in Cleveland nine of the last 10 games. Baker Mayfield is going to turn the ball over. The Browns defense, which everyone loves, just got torched by Derek Carr for 437 yards. This Ravens team is really good and should take care of business.
JETS -1 vs. Broncos - Denver is off a crushing loss, a game they should have won. They now have to travel to the Eastern time zone on a short week. They've lost their last six games at 1 p.m. on the East Coast. Their defense is living on past glory. They blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Their best player, Von Miller, couldn't even stay on the field in the fourth quarter because he was tired. They are bottom half of the league in opposing yards per play and opponent third down conversion percentage. They've forced three turnovers all season. Denver has gotten off to these hot starts the last several years and then tailed off. It looks like it's happening again this year. Jets will rebound after three consecutive losses.
Falcons +3 @ STEELERS - This a must-win game for both teams. This will be a shootout. I'll take the Falcons because this is really looking like the year from hell for the Steelers.
LIONS +1.5 vs. Packers - Detroit usually plays Green Bay really tough at home. They've won three of their last five home games. In those games when the Lions won, it was by double-digits. When Green Bay won it was by single-digits. The key to beating Detroit is running the ball as they are dead last in rushing yards allowed per game with 158. If Green Bay can run the ball early and effectively, they will win. If not, Detroit will.
Cardinals +4.5 @ 49ERS - The worst game of the year. Not sure how San Fran would be a 1.5-point favorite on a neutral-field. Nonetheless, Vegas thinks they are. I disagree. You're getting a free 1.5 points by taking the Cards. But, please don't bet on this game.
EAGLES -3 vs. Vikings - The loser of this game will have a losing record. The Eagles will win this game by controlling the line and getting to Kirk Cousins.
TEXANS -3.5 vs. Cowboys (Sunday night) - The Battle for Texas will be like an old Western duel because the losing team's coach may very well get fired. The Cowboys will be able to get to Deshaun Watson, but they don't have the offensive output the Texans have.
Redskins +7 @ SAINTS (Monday night) - The Redskins had two weeks to prepare for this one. The Saints defense is one of the worst in the league and Alex Smith is one of the most consistent and accurate passers. He'll be able to keep this one close.
My Running Season Total
- Best bet ATS record: 5-7
- This week: Patriots -10, Jets -1, Redskins +7
- Last week: 2-1
Good luck RotoBallers, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 6.
