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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, June 14th, 2020 at 9:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/14
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- Montreal Canadiens vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-280) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays - Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury ($10,800 DK) - Fleury is the top option at the captain spot for this showdown slate and there is a lot to like about rostering him. He is in great form as he has won four straight games and is allowing only two goals per game during that four-game stretch. Fleury is 18-5-1 on home ice this year and is sporting a 1.96 goals allowed average and a .926 save percentage with two shutouts so he looks to be locked in when he is tending the net on home ice.
- Max Pacioretty ($10,400 DK/ 15,500 FD) - If you're going to pay for a forward on this slate, you might as well spend up for a guy that has registered a point in every single playoff game so far this season. Pacioretty has four goals and four assists in seven playoff games this year and has been the most consistent fantasy forward to roster throughout the playoffs so far.
- Brendan Gallagher ($7,400 DK/ 10,500 FD) - Gallagher comes in at a reduced price and while his line gets tasked with matching with the opposing team's top line, he still does a great job of generating scoring chances and opportunities regardless of the matchup. He has the fourth most goals scored on the team and has managed to record a point in four out of his last five games played.
Value Picks
- Reilly Smith ($5,400 DK/ $8,500 FD) - Smith is a quiet contributor on the second line for Vegas and while he doesn't take many shots, he does a good job facilitating the play and finding the open look. Smith has recorded an assist in three out of his last four games played and has also been a better point producer at home than he has been on the road.
- Shea Weber ($6,400 DK/ $9,500 FD) - The pricing on Weber is just too good to pass up and while he doesn't rack up the points like we are used to over the years, he still does a great job racking up peripheral stats on a consistent basis. He is averaging four peripheral stats over his last five games while also managing to record a point in those of those contests. If he can record a point and also get a blocked shots bonus or shot on goal bonus, he could easily crush his value.
- Cole Caufield ($6,800 DK/ $7,000 FD) - Caufield has really provided an offensive spark to this Montreal team and he could be one to use in all formats in this showdown matchup. He has scored a point in three out of his last four games played and isn't afraid to fire the puck at the net as he has taken 14 shots on goal in that four-game span.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- VGK 2 - Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith
- VGK 1 - Pacioretty/ Stephenson/ Bailey
- MTL 2 - Toffoli/ Suzuki/ Caufield
Player Pool (In order of preference)
- C - Karlsson, Suzuki, Stephenson, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Roy
- W - Pacioretty, Stone, Toffoli, Gallagher, Marchessault, Smith, Caufield, Anderson, Tuch, Lehkonen, Janmark
- D - Pietrangelo, Theodore, Weber, Martinez, Chiarot, McNabb, Gustafsson
- G - Fleury, Price
Key Abbreviations:
- xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
- GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
- SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
