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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday, June 20th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/20
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- Vegas Golden Knights (-180) vs. Montreal Canadiens - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury ($10,800 DK) - Vegas shot themselves in the foot on Friday night as Fleury made a critical mistake trying to make a play on the puck behind the net which resulted in a very easy goal for Montreal. This mistake forced them to go to OT where Montreal was able to capitalize and pull out the win. Despite the mental error, Fleury has played well this series as he has only allowed seven total goals in three games and Vegas will need him to be at the top of his game in order for them to pull out the win to even the series at 2-2. An angry Fleury in net could lead to a strong performance and he would be one that could have a big-time game on Sunday night.
- Alex Pietrangelo ($9,600 DK/ 14,000 FD) - Our defenseman play did not let us down on Friday night as Pietrangelo recorded seven peripheral stats and also scored a goal. Pietrangelo now has three goals in three games against Montreal and the Canadiens are having a tough time containing the strong blue-liners that vegas is rolling out every game. Pietrangelo has such a high floor and solid ceiling that he makes for a great play in all formats.
- Tyler Toffoli ($9,000 DK/ 14,500 FD) - Outside of Caufield and Price, the Montreal player that has been playing well while also carrying a very high fantasy ceiling is Tyler Toffoli. Toffoli is averaging three shots on goal per game and is a key offensive piece to this Montreal attack. If you're thinking that Montreal can take this Game 4 away from vegas, you should consider Toffoli since they rely heavily on him from a scoring aspect.
Value Picks
- Alex Tuch ($6,600 DK/ $9,000 FD) - The Golden Knights are without their top-line center and it looks as if they will slide Alex Tuch up to their top line which makes him a very strong value play on this showdown slate. He is coming off of a six-shot performance and only adds to a very dangerous top line as he will be skating with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone.
- Cole Caufield ($7,000 DK/ $9,500 FD) - Caufield continues to deliver on the big stage as he scored another goal and extended his point streak to five straight games. He now has two goals against the Golden Knights during this series and he is really flashing his upside and potential throughout this postseason.
- Ben Chiarot ($5,800 DK/ $7,500 FD) - One defenseman to consider especially for your cash game builds should be Ben Chiarot. He is seeing over 25 minutes of ice time per game and has hit the blocked shots bonus on DK in four out of his last five games played. While he doesn't offer much from a point-scoring standpoint, his peripheral stats and large chunks of ice time make him viable in all formats but especially in cash games.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- VGK 1 - Pacioretty/ Tuch/ Stone
- MTL 2 - Toffoli/ Suzuki/ Caufield
- VGK 2 - Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith
Player Pool (In order of preference)
- C - Karlsson, Suzuki, Tuch, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Roy
- W - Pacioretty, Stone, Toffoli, Caufield, Gallagher, Marchessault, Anderson, Smith, Lehkonen, Janmark
- D - Pietrangelo, Theodore, Weber, Martinez, Chiarot, McNabb, Gustafsson
- G - Fleury, Price
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
