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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, June 24th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/24
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- Vegas Golden Knights (-140) vs. Montreal Canadiens - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Robin Lehner ($11,000 DK) - Lehner will most likely draw the start for Vegas as he had a very dominant performance in Montreal where he stopped 27 out of 28 shots in a 2-1 win against the Canadiens. While goalies are only in play for DK showdowns, he is a high upside type of play that could propel your lineups to the top of the leaderboards in tournaments.
- Alex Pietrangelo ($9,600 DK/ 13,500 FD) - Pietrangelo is coming off of his worst statistical game of the entire Montreal series and saw a small price dip over on DK which makes him even more enticing for this showdown slate. Pietrangelo is still one of the overall safest plays on the board as he has seen over 25 minutes of ice time in each of his last five games played and fell one shot on goal short of the shot bonus on DK. Montreal has struggled to contain the Vegas blue liners so if you're wanting a safe captain pick, look no further than Pietrangelo.
- Max Pacioretty ($10,000 DK/ 14,500 FD) - Pacioretty was finally able to notch his first goal of the series on Tuesday night in a 4-1 loss but that lone goal could be the catalyst that sparks the top line for Vegas heading into Game 6. Pacioretty has recorded a point in three straight games and with Stephenson back in the lineup, both Pacioretty and Stone will be the main beneficiaries which is why they should both be considered as captain plays in the tournament builds.
Value Picks
- Josh Anderson ($5,200 DK/ $9,000 FD) - While Anderson hasn't had the best postseason, he is certainly one that can pop off at any point which makes him a solid tournament play. Over his last three games played, Anderson has recorded three points and taken seven shots on goal and is the trigger man for that Montreal 3rd line that should see the depth lines of the Golden Knights in Game 6.
- Cole Caufield ($7,200 DK/ $10,000 FD) - Caufield saw a price hike on both sites but he is one of the better values on the entire slate. While his shot volume is pretty volatile, Caufield has managed to record a point in four out of the five games played in this series with three of those points being goals. This second line for Montreal has done very well this series as they have an expected goal for rate of 3.22 per 60 minutes of ice time so getting a piece of MTL 2 would be a way to go with your tournament builds.
- Ben Chiarot ($5,600 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Chiarot continues to grade out as a solid value on this showdown slate and is one of the better cheaper values that brings a consistent floor every game. He has a floor of three peripheral stats per game and is averaging over 25 minutes per game so while he might not be the best play from a tournament aspect, he makes for a great cash game value.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- VGK 1 - Pacioretty/ Stephenson/ Stone
- MTL 2 - Toffoli/ Suzuki/ Caufield
- VGK 2 - Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith
Player Pool (In order of preference)
- C - Karlsson, Suzuki, Stephenson, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Roy
- W - Pacioretty, Stone, Toffoli, Caufield, Gallagher, Marchessault, Anderson, Smith, Tuch, Lehkonen, Janmark
- D - Pietrangelo, Theodore, Petry, Martinez, Weber, Chiarot, McNabb, Gustafsson
- G - Fleury, Price
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
