RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, June 5th, 2020 at 4:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/5
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- Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-150) - 5.5U
- Boston Bruins (-150) vs. New York Islanders - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Brayden Point, TBL ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD) - Both top lines for the Canes and Lightning showed out on Thursday night and we could see a similar result on this two-game slate today. Point is under-priced especially over on DK and he has recorded double-digit points in three out of his last four games played with those points all being goals.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Bergeron, Aho
- Mid-Tier- Barzal, Krejci
- Value- Nelson, Staal, Gourde, Pageau
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Brad Marchand, BOS ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD) - While the Islanders were able to slow down David Pastrnak, they failed to limit Brad Marchand on the offensive end as he was able to take four shots on goal and ended up scoring the game-winning goal for the Bruins on Thursday night. Marchand now has 11 points in 11 games against the Islanders while managing to take 35 shots on goal during that stretch and is a top winger option on the slate.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Kucherov, Pastrnak, Stamkos
- Mid-Tier- Svechnikov, Beauvillier, Teravainen, Hall
- Value- Palat, Smith, Killorn, Palmieri, Necas, Eberle
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Charlie McAvoy, BOS ($5,600 DK / $6,200 FD) - The hot streak continues for McAvoy and he would be the preferred pay-up option out of the "big three" defenders to choose from on this slate. He has now recorded a point in three straight games and is coming off of an eight peripheral stats performance where he took three shots on goal and blocked five total shots. McAvoy has now produced double-digit DK points in four out of his last five games played and offers a slight discount when compared to Hamilton and Hedman.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Hamilton, Hedman
- Mid-Tier- Pulock, Grzelcyk
- Value- Sergachev, Reilly, McDonagh, Cernak
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Tuukka Rask, BOS ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD) - Rask has been a dominant force in the net for the Bruins as he has won four of his last five starts and has held opponents to just one goal in three of those five starts. While the Bruins have a very solid defense which limits the opportunity to record saves, Rask presents the highest upside for a shutout out of all of the starting goalies on this slate. On the season, Rask is 10-2-2 when defending the net on home ice and is sporting a 2.16 goals allowed average in those 14 home starts. He has also found success against the Islanders as he is 4-2-1 against them with a 1.97 goals allowed average and a .923 save percentage in eight total games played.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Vasilevskiy
- Mid-Tier-
- Value- Mrazek (GPP)
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- BOS 2
- Hall/ Krejci/ Smith
- With a lot of attention going to the top lines on these two game slates, you might want to look to differentiate in your tournament builds by looking at a second line, like the Boston 2 line. This line saw the most ice time together at 5v5 in Game 3 and did not disappoint as they generated a 72.22 Corsi for percentage while managing to create sic scoring chances and leading the Bruins with three high-danger opportunities. So far throughout these playoffs, this line is generating 31.21 scoring chances for per 60 while also generating 17.02 high danger chances as well with an expected goal for rate per 60 of 3.47 which is very high.
- Hall/ Krejci/ Smith
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: BOS 1, TBL 1, CAR 1, NYI 2, TBL 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
