RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, June 7th, 2020 at 6:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/7
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- New York Islanders vs. Boston Bruins (-190) - 5O
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Montreal Canadiens (-150) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Patrice Bergeron, BOS ($7,900 DK / $7,700 FD) - Bergeron is the clear-cut top option when it comes to center plays on this two-game slate and would be the main center to truly pay up for. In the first two playoff home games for the Bruins against the Islanders, Bergeron was able to record three total points while racking up 14 total peripheral stats in those two contests alone. Bergeron now has 14 points in just 12 games against New York and is averaging close to four shots on goal per game so he would be a staple in my cash game builds and would be one to consider in tournament builds as well.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Suzuki, Barzal
- Mid-Tier- Krejci, Nelson, Pageau
- Value- Danault, Dubois, Copp, Kotkaniemi, Staal, Stastny
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Tyler Toffoli, MTL ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD) - The Montreal winger has been white-hot lately as he has managed to record a point in every game so far against the Jets throughout round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and he has been a big reason why the Canadiens are on the verge of sweeping Winnipeg. When looking at his last five games played, Toffoli is only averaging a little over two shots per game but they have been calculated shots as he has scored three goals in that five-game span and he now has seven total goals in 12 games against Winnipeg this season.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Pastrnak, Marchand, Connor, Wheeler
- Mid-Tier- Gallagher, Hall, Ehlers, Caufield, Beauvillier
- Value- Eberle, Anderson, Smith, Lehkonen, Armia
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Charlie McAvoy, BOS ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD) - McAvoy is your free square when it comes to building out your lineup. He has been very reliable in the playoffs in all formats and has recorded 23 peripheral stats over his last five games. The ice time should be there for McAvoy and he was able to record a point on home ice in both of their first two games of this series so with him being moderately priced on both sites, he becomes a lock for both cash games and tournament builds.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Weber, Petry, Pulock
- Mid-Tier- Grzelcyk, Pionk, Mayfield
- Value- Reilly, Chiarot, Edmundson, Leddy
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Carey Price, MTL ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) - Montreal is looking for the knock-out punch tonight against Winnipeg as they are up in their series 3-0 and they have dominated the Jets on both ends of the ice. Carey Price has looked phenomenal in the net as he has allowed a combined four total goals in their first three games played in this series and has a .954 save percentage to go with it. Price has now improved his record to 5-1-1 against the Jets this season by having a 2.29 goals allowed average in seven total starts and he grades out to be the top option from a goalie perspective on the slate.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Rask
- Mid-Tier- Sorokin
- Value-
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- BOS 1
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, d-men add on)
- This shouldn't be much of a surprise to see the top line of the Bruins get featured in the stacking portion of this article but with this being a two-game slate, this line by far features the highest upside which is what you want for your tournament builds. In the first two games of this series on home ice for Boston, this line was able to record two 5v5 goals in just 28 minutes of ice time while generating 26 scoring chances and five high-danger opportunities. When expanding this to all strengths, this line has managed to produce four goals in 31 minutes of ice time and is sporting an expected goals for rate of 4.54 per 60 minutes of ice time against the Islanders at home in the playoffs. This line should be pretty chalky so one way to get different is including David Krejci who skates with this top line on the top powerplay unit which also gets you exposure to the Boston second line as well.
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, d-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: MON 2, MON 1, NYI 1
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
