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ANALYSIS: Nick Williams was always able to post gaudy counting stats at each level of the minor leagues. The concern about his transition to the big leagues when he was called up in late June stemmed from his plate discipline, as he struck out at well over a 25% rate while at AAA with a walk rate under five percent. That profile has remained nearly the same in 111 big league plate appearances, but he has produced anyway and he is a fantasy asset as a result.
A .347 BABIP immediately jumps out as a spot for regression for Williams, but he is making great contact as indicated by his 41.6% hard contact rate. In addition, he has maintained a BABIP well over .300 throughout his minor-league tenure, which suggests a massive amount of regression may not be coming. Other spots for potential regression include his power as has a groundball rate of 50% and is relying on a bloated HR/FB to maintain power.
However, assuming he can keep his average afloat, the rest of Williams’ production should continue to fall in line even with regression. His power has played to its fullest potential as he has batted predominantly third or fifth in the Phillies’ lineup, so despite playing for a poor offense, he has been able to rack up counting stats. Though he is currently producing towards the top of his range of outcomes, it is worth picking him up to see if he can continue to get the best of major league pitching to begin his career.
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