RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~175 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~196
ANALYSIS:
Collins’ ADP has elevated five rounds since August 1, as an increasing number of fantasy managers have wisely embraced his uncontested pathway toward weekly WR2 responsibilities.
Collins only registered three receptions during his first season at Michigan. However, he accumulated 75 receptions (3.0 per game) and 1,388 receiving yards (54.4 per game) during 2018-2019 before opting out of the 2020 regular season that was impacted by COVID-19.
Houston selected the 6’4”, 215-pound Collins in Round 3 of the 2021 NFL Draft (89th overall), which infused him into a depth chart that was destined to operate with a dearth of talent - beyond Brandin Cooks. The 28-year-old Cooks capitalized on his substantial role within an otherwise forgettable collection of veterans by reaching the periphery of a 27% target share (26.9%), which placed him 10th among all wide receivers. He also eclipsed 1,000 yards for the sixth time during his last seven seasons (1,037/68.1 per game), while capturing a career-high 134 targets (8.4 per game).
Collins also benefitted from the Texans’ shortage of dynamic weaponry, even though his rookie season contained unexceptional season-long numbers. He still finished second on the team in a cluster of categories despite his uninspiring season totals (60 targets/4.3 per game, 33 receptions/2.4 per game, 446 yards/31.9 per game, 637 air yards, 353 routes). He was also targeted on 17% of his routes while averaging 1.26 yards per route run.
The Texans invested a second-round selection in John Metchie (44th overall) during April’s NFL Draft. However, the promising first-year receiver was diagnosed with leukemia in July and will be unavailable throughout the regular season.
This has ensured that Cooks and Collins will remain entrenched as Houston’s top two receiving weapons, as they reside atop a depth chart that is devoid of a legitimate threat to their roles with the team (Phillip Dorsett/Chester Rogers/Chris Conley).
Collins possesses a favorable combination of size and speed, which should enable him to gain separation with increasing frequency during his development as a receiver. He should also benefit from the growing rapport that was built with Davis Mills during their rookie seasons and has been bolstered by their workouts during the offseason.
Collins averaged 5.0 targets, 3.3 receptions, and 42.3 yards per game from Weeks 3-8 when Mills was operating as the Texans’ starter. He later averaged 6.0 targets/3.0 receptions/43.6 yards per game from Weeks 14-18, after Mills reemerged under center.
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