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The Denver Broncos continued their downward spiral in 2019, making it the fourth consecutive season of no playoffs for the team after winning Super Bowl 50 in 2015. Denver did continue to improve its offense though as rookie QB Drew Lock out of Missouri started in five games at the end of the season and went an impressive 4-1.
After a robust draft and free agency that loaded up this offense, the Broncos are a sleeper pick to make the playoffs in 2020. Thus, Denver does indeed have some intriguing fantasy prospects who could have a breakout season (aside from Lock).
One of those players is now second-year tight end Noah Fant, who has one NFL season under his belt and looks to build on his rookie campaign in 2020 with a big role on this offense. Let’s break down Fant’s potential fantasy value for the 2020 season and see if there's reason to believe he could outperform his current ADP in fantasy football drafts.
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2019 Recap
Nebraska native Noah Fant played three seasons at the University of Iowa before being drafted 20th overall in the 2019 draft. The 22-year-old appeared in all 16 games for the Denver Broncos last season and finished second to WR Courtland Sutton on the pass-catching unit in receptions, targets, yards, yards per catch, and touchdowns.
The 6’4” tight end compiled 40 receptions, 66/504 targets (13.1%), 562 yards, 14.1 yards per catch, three touchdowns, and 35.1 yards per game. He had 388 yards after catch and only five dropped passes. Fant also had an incredible 8.5 yards after the catch per reception, which tied for second among NFL pass-catchers.
The Iowa product generally went under-the-radar in fantasy last season, but quietly put up respectable numbers. He finished 16th among fantasy tight ends. Among NFL tight ends, Fant finished 18th in receptions, 13th in receiving yards, 14th in yards per catch, fifth in yards after the catch, and 15th in targets.
2020 Outlook
The Broncos weren’t a high-powered offense last season with veteran QB Joe Flacco running the show for most of the season. Entering 2020, the offense has some different pieces and a few youngsters on this team already have some decent NFL experience. This includes Drew Lock, Fant, and Courtland Sutton.
The Broncos now have a loaded offense that features RB Melvin Gordon, RB Phillip Lindsay, rookie WR Jerry Jeudy, rookie WR K.J. Hamler, WR Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant. With the addition of new receivers, Fant may have to fight for targets; however, on the TEs depth chart, he is number one. The TE also did play a big role in this offense last season as a rookie, which is encouraging for his potential opportunities in 2020. In addition, he is bigger than the wide receivers in size (6’4”, 249 lbs), so he can emerge as a safety blanket for Lock as well as a red-zone target.
Veteran TEs Nick Vannett and Jeff Heuerman are below Fant on the depth chart, but they pose no threat to his TE1 role. Vannett played 16 total games for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks last season and only garnered a total of 17 receptions, 22 targets, and 166 yards. In four NFL seasons, the Ohio State product has not gotten more than 269 yards in a season.
Meanwhile, Heuerman has played for the Broncos for the past four seasons but has never eclipsed more than 281 yards in a season. Last season, the Ohio State product played in 14 games and only managed 14 receptions, 20/504 targets (4.0%), 114 yards, 8.1 yards per catch, and one touchdown. Fant recorded more yards and better stats than both tight ends as a rookie, so there should be no worries about either significantly cutting into his production.
With one year of experience, a large role on this offense last season, being atop the TEs depth chart, and the chance to play a big role in a potentially explosive offense in 2020, there are many factors contributing to Noah Fant’s sleeper status for this upcoming fantasy season. Based on his fantasy and stat ranks from last year, consider Fant a low TE1 heading into drafts in redraft leagues. He can be drafted as a TE1 in leagues consisting of 12-14 teams and has the potential to reel in huge numbers depending on the matchup.
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