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Since joining the Jets in 2013, Chris Ivory has led the team in carries both years. That isn’t exactly saying a whole lot, as he failed to crack 200 carries in either season. That said, the Jets did bring in some real competition last year in former star Chris Johnson. This year the Jets have once again brought in some moderately tough competition in Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy. Despite this, we aren’t that far into the preseason and there is already speculation that Ivory could become a three-down back. Should that happen, Ivory would be seriously undervalued at his current ADP. Is this speculation enough reason for fantasy owners to give Ivory a longer look?
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Ivory had 198 carries last year under HC Rex Ryan and OC Marty Mornhinweg. That’s a respectable number; superstar Jamaal Charles had just 205. There is definitely room for more carries though. Ivory was on the field for just 454 snaps, good for 26th among all running backs according to Pro Football Focus while the true feature backs saw upwards of 650 snaps, with Matt Forte leading the pack with an astounding 1,006 snaps.
The problem is, those extra snaps would include a lot of blocking and some route running, and Chris Ivory just hasn’t been very good in these two areas. Ivory received the second-worst PFF blocking grade of all qualified running backs last year and was also graded negatively in the passing game. Thankfully these skills can be improved. For example, Jonathan Stewart was among the worst blockers from 2008-11 but has received a positive grade every year since. He was even tied for the third-best blocking grade last year.
Ivory is capable of improving in the passing game as well. Prior to last year he had a total of five receptions during his career. We saw the Jets make a serious effort to get him involved in the passing game in 2014, as he has 18 catches on 24 targets. That wasn't amazing, but it wasn’t terrible either, and Zac Stacy and Stevan Ridley aren’t exactly known for their receiving skills. If Ivory has continued to progress as a receiver he may already be the best option in the passing game, even if that isn’t saying a whole lot.
Let’s get back to what Ivory does well, which is run the ball down the throats of defenses. Ivory was fourth in missed tackles as a rusher last year, and was only behind three elite feature backs that all saw significantly more carries: Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray and Le’Veon Bell. Ivory also had an above-average yards after contact per attempt ratio and the fifth-best elusive rating in each of the past two seasons. If he could get on the field enough to see 250 carries he could put up some serious yardage totals.
New head coach Todd Bowles has a defensive background as both a coach and a player, so we should expect offensive coordinator Chan Gailey to be running the offense. Gailey never quite had a true feature back for an entire season during his time as the Bills HC, although Marshawn Lynch was the lead back for a brief time at the beginning of Gailey’s run before Fred Jackson took over. In 2011 Jackson was one of the most dominant backs in the league until an injury shortened his season. C.J. Spiller then emerged with an excellent 2012, but Fred Jackson still vultured a healthy amount of carries. Still, between the two they averaged 70 catches per year during Gailey’s tenure. These two backs were both above-average receivers, so we shouldn’t expect nearly as many catches from a three-down Ivory, but it certainly highlights the fact that RBs have played a big role in the passing game. If Ivory really is going to be an every-down back, I would have to imagine he would get two or three catches per game.
As for Gailey’s offense, while I mentioned he never had a feature back for one full season, Fred Jackson did have a 16-game stretch as a feature back in 2010 until his injury in 2011. Jackson’s numbers during that 16 game stretch were excellent, as he tallied 1,398 yards on the ground on 277 attempts, adding 542 receiving yards on 47 receptions to end up with nine total touchdowns. That’s just over 20 touches a game, and while I wouldn’t expect quite so many receptions for Chris Ivory he is capable of a 300-touch season.
Even though Ivory is not as good as 2010-11 Fred Jackson, 300 touches of Chris Ivory would be an amazing bargain at his current ADP of RB33. That ADP is especially crazy given that Ivory finished as the RB18 in standard formats last year on just 216 touches in a much worse offense. Even without buying into Ivory as a three-down back, he is still at the top of the depth chart and will likely exceed his carry number from last year barring injury. Zac Stacy and Stevan Ridley have their fans, but I’m not among them. Stacy has been among the most inefficient runners even when he was at his best, and Ridley was looking pretty bad last year and now is recovering from a torn ACL and that doesn't even touch upon his fumble issues.
All of this leads to me at least partially buying into the Ivory feature back speculation. His ADP is on the rise but there is still plenty of room for me to feel comfortable grabbing him. Chris Ivory was a steal last year and looks to be an even bigger steal this year. Keep an eye on news surrounding the Jets backfield workload division but for now Ivory is one of the best values among mid-round RBs.
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