RADIO
Only three days’ worth of games separate last week’s waiver wire from this week’s, but there are still new players worth picking up this week. In addition to players making their first appearance on this list, some players still aren’t close as highly rostered as they should be after last week.
With that in mind, I’ll go through some outfielders who should be priority waiver pickups for fantasy managers this week. Rostered amounts for waiver pickups will be based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and the cutoff is 50% rostered or less.
All of the players recommended this week are rostered in fewer than 40% of leagues, so there’s a good chance that most are achievable in your league, regardless of how deep it may be. For fantasy managers in particularly deep leagues, I’ve also included four outfielders rostered in fewer than 20% of leagues.
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Shallow-League Pickups
Ian Happ (OF, CHC) - 38% rostered
The universal DH has created a clear path to consistent playing time for Happ this season, and 25-year-old wasted no time showing off his power with a 422 ft home run on Opening Day. Happ hasn’t posted a barrel rate below 12% in any of the past three seasons, and his career .459 xwOBA on contact is elite.
Like many other hitters with his contact quality profile though, Happ will need to get his strikeout rate down to make him worthwhile for most fantasy managers. Encouragingly, Happ’s swinging-strike rate has been trending in the right direction for most of the past two seasons.
Happ opened the season with a better than usual 13% swinging-strike rate this year, and if he can keep it in that range, then his strikeout rate should fall towards 25%. That should allow Happ to post an OPS around .800, making him worth picking up in most leagues, considering that playing time should come fairly easily.
Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) - 15% rostered
I’m not exactly sure who still needs to hear this, but Aaron Hicks is good. Despite it being clear that Hicks is healthy and the everyday Yankees center fielder this season, Hicks’s rostered rate went up only six points over the past week, and he’s still rostered in less than 20% of leagues. Even with a Tommy John-shortened down year last season, Hicks managed to post a .762 OPS while being on pace for a 33 home run season.
Hicks is a legitimate nine-home run, four-stolen base threat this season, and it’s absurd that he’s available in 85% of leagues. If you need any more reasons to pick Hicks up, he’s projected to bat fifth for most games in a lineup that led the league in runs last season and only got healthier over the offseason. Hick should be rostered in well over 50% of leagues, and he should be an easy waiver pickup this week.
Trent Grisham (OF, SD) - 23% rostered
Grisham has claimed the starting center field job for the Padres this season, and he’s worth picking up in most leagues this week -- especially for fantasy managers looking for speed. After stealing 33 bases per 162 games over his minor league career, Grisham joins a Padres team that attempted the 12th most stolen bases in baseball last season and already attempted two steals on Opening Day.
In addition to his potential on the basepaths, Grisham offers some power, with both of his batted balls leaving the bat at more than 90 mph on Friday. Add in the fact that Grisham posted a palatable 21% strikeout rate in the minor leagues to go with a strong 16% walk rate, and Grisham becomes worth adding in most leagues this week.
Deeper-League Pickups
Jose Peraza (2B/SS/OF, BOS) - 10% rostered
Peraza smoked a 107 mph single as part of a four-hit Opening Day, and that should have fantasy managers optimistic about a bounceback year for the 26-year-old this season. Peraza’s contact quality was the worst of his career last season with a .310 xwOBA on contact, and it was a significant factor in his BABIP dropping from .307 in 2018 to .268 last season.
OBP is crucial for Peraza’s success because of his ability to steal more than 20 stolen bases (over 162 games), and that Peraza’s contact quality looks strong early is encouraging. To put Peraza’s Opening Day into context, Peraza hit 31 batted balls with an exit velocity north of 105 mph in 2018 compared to just 17 last season. Getting some consistent power back should allow Peraza to get his OBP back up around .340 this season, making him worth rostering in deeper leagues, especially for fantasy managers in need of speed.
Kyle Lewis (OF, SEA) - 16% rostered
Lewis had a disappointing minor league career, but he’s thrived in the major leagues so far with .904 OPS and seven home runs over his first 19 career MLB games. Lewis is probably going to have a strikeout rate around 30% this season after posting a 25% career strikeout rate in the minor leagues and a 19% swinging-strike rate so far in his major league career, but his power is exciting.
Lewis crushed a 438 ft home run with a 110.9 mph exit velocity on Opening Day, and his 90.7 mph career average exit velocity is excellent, even if it is a small sample. Lewis may eventually cool off this season, but even a relatively short hot streak is significant in a 60 game season. Combined with Lewis’s impressive potential, the 25-year-old’s hot start makes him worth picking up in deeper leagues this week.
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (OF, TB) - 19% rostered
Tsutsugo got off to a strong start to his MLB career, clubbing a 407 ft home run on Opening Day. Tsutsugo brings strong power to the MLB after averaging 33 home runs per 162 games over 10 seasons in Japan, and he should be an everyday outfielder for the Rays at least until Austin Meadows returns to the team.
Even when Meadows does return, there’s a good chance that Tsutsugo winds up finding consistent playing time, especially if the 28-year-old stays hot to start the season. More immediately, Tsutsugo’s power and a series against the Orioles in Baltimore next week make Tsutsugo worth a pickup this week.
Looking Ahead
Victor Reyes (OF, DET) - 2% rostered
Reyes sat on both Friday and Saturday as the fourth outfielder for the Tigers, but he should be on the radar of fantasy managers in case playing time opens up in the Detroit outfield. Reyes boasts a combination of solid contact skills (9.5% swinging-strike rate last season) and contact quality (35% line drive rate) that makes him a breakout candidate if he adds power again this season.
If Reyes manages to add another tick or two to his average exit velocity this season, then a .800 OPS is within reach. With Christin Stewart and Cameron Maybin blocking him on the depth chart, Reyes should see an opportunity for playing time sooner rather than later, and fantasy managers should be ready when he does.
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