Offensive Outliers From Week 16 - Coaching Matters

We now enter the 16th week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 16, we saw stat lines such as the Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver room combining for 404 receiving yards, the Houston Texans running back room combining for 34 carries, and the San Francisco 49ers tight end room combining for three targets.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

 

Atlanta Falcons Wide Receivers

Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone

	WR Rec.	WR Tgts	WR Rec. Yds	WR Rec. TD
2020 Falcons	16.5	24.69	216.5	1.31
Arthur Smith Prior (32 games)	11.06	16.41	162.19	1.13
Falcons WRs vs. Detroit Lions	8	11	86	0

The Atlanta Falcons wide receivers couldn't get much going against the Detroit Lions as they combined for eight receptions on 11 targets for 86 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 142 receptions (9.47 per game) on 222 targets (14.8 per game) for 1505 receiving yards (100.33 per game) and eight receiving touchdowns (0.53 per game). Clearly, this group has underperformed this year compared to last year's numbers and Arthur Smith's previous wide receiver room numbers, but with just two games left in the regular season, it's hard to see that changing much for this year.

Fantasy players this impacts: Olamide Zaccheaus, Russell Gage, Calvin Ridley

 

Philadelphia Eagles Tight Ends

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen

In a blowout win against the New York Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles tight end room wasn't utilized much, combining for two receptions on five targets for 28 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. This group has now totaled 72 receptions (4.8 per game) on 107 targets (7.13 per game) for 970 receiving yards (64.67 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (0.4 per game) on the season. This group has been a little underutilized this year compared to what we are used to seeing from head coach Nick Sirianni or offensive coordinator Shane Steichen's tight end room, so it's possible we have a bit of a bounce-back in the final two weeks of the regular season from this group to utilization closer to what we are used to seeing from those coaches.

Fantasy players this impacts: Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll, Tyree Jackson

 

Arizona Cardinals Wide Receivers

Kliff Kingsbury

	WR Rec.	WR Tgts	WR Rec. Yds	WR Rec. TD
2020 Cardinals	16.13	23.5	180.25	0.94
Kliff Kingsbury Prior (32 games)	15.5	23.59	174.34	0.88
Cardinals WRs vs. Indianapolis Colts	10	16	100	1

The Arizona Cardinals wide receiver room had a subpar game against the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday where they combined for 10 receptions on 16 targets for 100 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. On the season, this group has now totaled 226 receptions (15.07 per game) on 320 targets (21.33 per game) for 2792 receiving yards (186.13 per game) and 18 receiving touchdowns (1.2 per game). Kliff Kingsbury has been one of the better offensive-minded coaches at getting production out of his wide receiver room since coming to the NFL, so there's a strong chance we see more utilization of this group in the final two weeks of the season than we saw this past week against the Indianapolis Colts.

Fantasy players this impacts: Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, Rondale Moore, A.J. Green, Antoine Wesley, DeAndre Hopkins

 

San Francisco 49ers Tight Ends

Kyle Shanahan & Mike McDaniel

	TE Rec.	TE Tgts	TE Rec. Yds	TE Rec. TD
2020 49ers	6	8.56	71.63	0.44
Kyle Shanahan Prior (208 games)	5.07	7.61	63.13	0.33
49ers TEs vs. Tennessee Titans	2	3	21	0

The San Francisco 49ers tight end room was a non-factor in the passing game against the Tennessee Titans last Thursday, combining for two receptions on three targets for 21 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 74 receptions (4.93 per game) on 96 targets (6.4 per game) for 974 receiving yards (64.93 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (0.47 per game). The 49ers' tight end room was due for a subpar game considering how hot George Kittle had been the four weeks prior since teams would eventually decide to double him more to take him out of the equation. Going forward, there will be better performances than last Thursday that are more in line with what we are accustomed to seeing from Kyle Shanahan's tight ends.

Fantasy players this impacts: George Kittle, Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner

 

Carolina Panthers Running Backs

Matt Rhule

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Panthers	17.94	70.31	0.75	5.63	6.56	38.44	0.25
Matt Rhule Prior (16 games)	17.94	70.31	0.75	5.63	6.56	38.44	0.25
Panthers RBs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	14	0	5	9	20	0

The Carolina Panthers running back room combined for just nine carries, 14 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions, nine targets, 20 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past week. So far this season, this group has totaled 298 carries (19.87 per game), 1121 rushing yards (74.73 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.33 per game), 89 receptions (5.93 per game), 119 targets (7.93 per game), 756 receiving yards (50.4 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.13 per game). Matt Rhule has been one of the worst coaches in the league statistically for running back rooms since becoming a head coach in 2020, so it's hard to see that changing much with just two games left in the season. Because of this, you should probably avoid starting one of the Panthers' running backs in your fantasy leagues unless you are in an absolutely dire situation.

Fantasy players this impacts: Chuba Hubbard, Christian McCaffrey, Ameer Abdullah

 

Decline Ahead?

A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

 

Houston Texans Running Backs

David Culley & Tim Kelly

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Texans	15.75	63.63	0.44	4.25	5.56	36.94	0.25
Tim Kelly Prior (32 games)	18.56	79.63	0.47	3.84	5.25	32.88	0.22
Texans RBs vs. Los Angeles Chargers	34	183	2	2	2	0	0

The Houston Texans running back room went off in the upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers, combining for 34 carries, 183 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, two receptions, two targets, zero receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 335 carries (22.33 per game), 1062 rushing yards (70.8 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.33 per game), 64 receptions (4.27 per game), 86 targets (5.73 per game), 461 receiving yards (30.73 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.13 per game). Sunday's performance was the biggest outlier this week given how little Tim Kelly has historically utilized his running back room, and is more of a testament as to how bad the Los Angeles Chargers run defense is. Do not expect similar performances against the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans in the final two weeks of the regular season.

Fantasy players this impacts: David Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Royce Freeman

 

Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

The Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver room combined for an impressive 22 receptions on 28 targets for 404 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday. This group has now totaled 212 receptions (14.13 per game) on 320 targets (21.33 per game) for 3103 receiving yards (206.87 per game) and 21 receiving touchdowns (1.4 per game) on the season. While Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan are two of the better coaches in the league for wide receiver utilization and production, it's hard to bank on a group to put up 400+ yards in consecutive games. Expect this group to be great, but maybe not as great as Sunday during the final two weeks of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tyler Boyd, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate

 

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers

Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore

The Dallas Cowboys wide receivers combined for 18 receptions on 27 targets for 296 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns against the Washington Football Team on Sunday Night Football. On the season, this group has now totaled 228 receptions (15.2 per game) on 352 targets (23.47 per game) for 2964 receiving yards (197.6 per game) and 20 receiving touchdowns (1.33 per game). Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore are no doubt two of the best coaches in the league for wide receiver production, but nearly 300 receiving yards from one position group is hard to consistently count on. Expect this group to be strong down the stretch, but not quite the numbers from Sunday's performance against the Washington Football Team.

Fantasy players this impacts: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown, and Malik Turner

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