Offensive Outliers From Week 17 - Coaching Matters

We now enter the 17th week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 17, we saw stat lines such as the New York Giants wide receivers combining for four targets, the Dallas Cowboys running backs combining for 25 rushing yards, and the Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers combining for 364 receiving yards.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's playcaller tendencies in the past.

 

Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers

Brian Daboll

	WR Rec.	WR Tgts	WR Rec. Yds	WR Rec. TD
2020 Bills	19.5	26.69	243.56	1.75
Brian Daboll Prior (112 games)	10.96	19.25	140.74	0.71
Bills WRs vs. Atlanta Falcons	11	20	120	0

The Buffalo Bills wide receiver room combined for 11 receptions on 20 targets for 120 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns in the win against the Atlanta Falcons this past week. On the year, the Bills wide receiver room has now totaled 266 receptions (16.63 per game) on 408 targets (25.5 per game) for 3124 receiving yards (195.25 per game) and 21 receiving touchdowns (1.31 per game). Seeing how much Brian Daboll's offense has fed wide receivers since 2020, it seems that there should be a bit of a bounce-back performance from this group next week against the New York Jets.

Fantasy players this impacts: Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah McKenzie, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis

 

New York Giants Wide Receivers

Freddie Kitchens 

	WR Rec.	WR Tgts	WR Rec. Yds	WR Rec. TD
2020 Giants	11.06	17.5	132.88	0.56
Freddie Kitchens Prior (25 games)	11.6	19.92	169.8	0.88
Giants WRs vs. Chicago Bears	1	4	12	0

The New York Giants wide receiver room disappointed against the Chicago Bears as they combined for one reception on four targets for 12 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 175 receptions (10.94 per game) on 313 targets (19.56 per game) for 2112 receiving yards (132 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.25 per game). While it's harder to have as many takeaways from Freddie Kitchens running the show as we would with an offensive playcaller who got to implement their own playbook at the start of the year (he's stuck utilizing former offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's playbook), we should at the very least expect more than four measly wide receiver targets in a game for this group.

Fantasy players this impacts: John Ross, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton

 

New York Giants Tight Ends

Freddie Kitchens 

	TE Rec.	TE Tgts	TE Rec. Yds	TE Rec. TD
2020 Giants	5.38	8.5	50.75	0.06
Freddie Kitchens Prior (25 games)	3.24	5.04	38.44	0.52
Giants TEs vs. Chicago Bears	1	3	12	0

The New York Giants tight end room combined for just one reception on three targets for 12 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the Chicago Bears. This group has now totaled 73 receptions (4.56 per game) on 110 targets (6.88 per game) for 694 receiving yards (43.38 per game) and five receiving touchdowns (0.31 per game) on the season. While Freddie Kitchens has typically not utilized his tight end room as much as former offensive coordinator Jason Garrett did, we should expect this group to hover more around five targets per game rather than the three they posted against the Bears. Expect a bit of a bounce-back performance against the Washington Football Team.

Fantasy players this impacts: Evan Engram & Kyle Rudolph

 

San Francisco 49ers Tight Ends

Kyle Shanahan & Mike McDaniel

	TE Rec.	TE Tgts	TE Rec. Yds	TE Rec. TD
2020 49ers	6	8.56	71.63	0.44
Kyle Shanahan Prior (208 games)	5.07	7.61	63.13	0.33
49ers TEs vs. Houston Texans	1	2	29	0

For the second week in a row, the San Francisco 49ers' tight end room lands on this list as they combined for just one reception on two targets for 29 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the Houston Texans. On the season, this group has now totaled 75 receptions (4.69 per game) on 98 targets (6.13 per game) for 1003 receiving yards (62.69 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (0.44 per game). The 49ers' tight end room has been probably due for a subpar game or two considering how hot George Kittle had been a couple of weeks ago – it was inevitable that teams would eventually decide to double him more to take him out of the equation. Looking ahead to next week, it seems likely that this group bounces back and puts up a performance more in line with what we are accustomed to seeing out of a Kyle Shanahan tight end room.

Fantasy players this impacts: George Kittle, Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner

 

Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers

Matt Rhule

	WR Rec.	WR Tgts	WR Rec. Yds	WR Rec. TD
2020 Panthers	15.69	23.19	205.75	0.63
Matt Rhule Prior (16 games)	15.69	23.19	205.75	0.63
Panthers WRs vs. New Orleans Saints	7	13	55	0

The Carolina Panthers wide receiver room combined for just seven receptions on 13 targets for 55 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints this past Sunday. After this game, this group has now totaled 180 receptions (11.25 per game) on 331 targets (20.69 per game) for 2109 receiving yards (131.81 per game) and nine receiving touchdowns (0.56 per game). While they should perform better in the final week of the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than what they showed against the New Orleans Saints this past week, there's no way around it - the Panthers wide receiver room has been disappointing this year (especially compared to the numbers we saw from this group last year under Matt Rhule).

Fantasy players this impacts: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr.

 

Dallas Cowboys Running Backs

Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Cowboys	22	89.88	0.63	5	6.94	33.13	0.19
Mike McCarthy Prior (316 games)	21.29	89.53	0.57	4.03	5.44	31.42	0.10
Kellen Moore Prior (32 games)	23.09	101.56	0.75	4.66	6.31	33.03	0.19
Cowboys RBs vs. Arizona Cardinals	12	25	0	4	7	63	0

The Dallas Cowboys running backs had a subpar game against the Arizona Cardinals where they combined for 12 carries, 25 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, four receptions, seven targets, 63 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has now totaled 376 carries (23.5 per game), 1719 rushing yards (107.44 per game), 12 rushing touchdowns (0.75 per game), 87 receptions (5.44 per game), 111 targets (6.94 per game), 628 receiving yards (39.25 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.13 per game). In all honesty, this group was probably due for a poor performance given they are performing at the upper end of what we'd expect from a Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore running back room. While they should perform better against the Eagles than they did against the Cardinals, it probably will be a little below the current season averages.

Fantasy players this impacts: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Corey Clement

 

Decline Ahead?

A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's playcaller tendencies in the past.

 

New York Giants Running Backs

Freddie Kitchens

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Giants	19.38	78.5	0.63	3.63	5.19	24.88	0.13
Freddie Kitchens Prior (25 games)	21.36	103.56	0.68	5.88	7.32	47.8	0.24
Giants RBs vs. Chicago Bears	39	148	0	2	4	0	0

The New York Giants running back room combined for 39 carries, 148 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, two receptions, four targets, zero receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Bears. On the season, this group has now totaled 313 carries (19.56 per game), 1245 rushing yards (77.81 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.31 per game), 86 receptions (5.38 per game), 108 targets (6.75 per game), 536 receiving yards (33.5 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.25 per game). Freddie Kitchens and the Giants called a really strange, run-heavy game last week against the Chicago Bears considering they were down big most of the game. Looking ahead to the final week of the season, expect this group to post numbers closer to the season averages against the Washington Football Team.

Fantasy players this impacts: Saquon Barkley, Devontae Booker, Elijhaa Penny

 

Tennessee Titans Running Backs

Todd Downing

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Titans	28.94	149.31	1.13	2.13	3.31	12.56	0.13
Todd Downing Prior (16 games)	20	82.44	0.63	5.06	7	37.75	0.13
Titans RBs vs. Miami Dolphins	36	191	2	3	3	33	0

The Tennessee Titans running back room combined for 36 carries, 191 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, three receptions, three targets, 33 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 450 carries (28.13 per game), 1976 rushing yards (123.5 per game), 16 rushing touchdowns (one per game), 78 receptions (4.88 per game), 98 targets (6.13 per game), 607 receiving yards (37.94 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.06 per game). Todd Downing and the Titans have clearly loved pounding the rock all year, but Sunday's performance against the Miami Dolphins was still on the upper end of what we should expect from this group. It's likely we see slightly lower numbers next week against the Houston Texans.

Fantasy players this impacts: Derrick Henry, Jeremy McNichols, D'Onta Foreman, Darrynton Evans, Dontrell Hilliard

 

New England Patriots Running Backs

Josh McDaniels

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Patriots	21.31	102.81	0.5	5.44	7.06	46.06	0.31
Josh McDaniels Prior (236 games)	24.32	103.95	0.85	5.16	7.10	45.06	0.28
Patriots RBs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars	29	146	4	3	4	33	0

In a blowout win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the New England Patriots running backs combined for 29 carries, 146 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, three receptions, four targets, 33 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 386 carries (24.13 per game), 1719 rushing yards (107.44 per game), 22 rushing touchdowns (1.38 per game), 82 receptions (5.13 per game), 98 targets (6.13 per game), 704 receiving yards (44 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.06 per game). While Josh McDaniels' offense has historically done a good job of feeding the running backs, it's hard to bank on a position group to score four touchdowns per week. Expect a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, but maybe not to the level we saw last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Fantasy players this impacts: Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden, Rhamondre Stevenson, J.J. Taylor, and James White

 

Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

For the second week in a row, the Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver room lands on this list as they combined for 18 receptions on 23 targets for 364 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs. This group has now totaled 230 receptions (14.38 per game) on 343 targets (21.44 per game) for 3467 receiving yards (216.69 per game) and 25 receiving touchdowns (1.56 per game) on the season. Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan are two of the better coaches in the league for wide receiver utilization and production so big performances are in their wheelhouse, but nonetheless, it's hard to count on three consecutive 350+ receiving yard performances from a position group. Expect this group to have a strong performance against the Cleveland Browns, but maybe not as great as they have been the previous two weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tyler Boyd, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate

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