Offensive Outliers From Week 5 - Coaching Matters

We now enter the fifth week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 5, we saw stat lines such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' wide receivers combining for 349 receiving yards, the San Francisco 49ers' tight ends combining for three receptions, and the Cleveland Browns' running backs combining for 222 rushing yards.

After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

San Francisco 49ers Tight Ends

Kyle Shanahan & Mike McDaniel

The San Francisco 49ers' tight end room struggled without George Kittle this week as they combined for three receptions on three targets for 29 receiving yards. On the season, the San Francisco 49ers' tight end room has totaled 23 receptions (4.6 per game), 32 targets (6.4 per game), 277 receiving yards (55.4 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.2 per game). Based on this information, there should be better performances for the San Francisco 49ers' tight ends after their bye if Kyle Shanahan's old tendencies hold true.

Fantasy players this impacts: George Kittle, Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner

Chicago Bears Wide Receivers

Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor

Despite the win, the Bears' wide receivers could not get much going against the Las Vegas Raiders, combining for eight receptions on 12 targets for 75 receiving yards. On the season, the Bears' wide receiver room has totaled 46 receptions (9.2 per game), 75 targets (15 per game), 524 receiving yards (104.8 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.2 per game). Comparing these totals with the averages we are used to seeing from Matt Nagy and Bill Lazor's wide receiver room, it looks like there's a good buy-low opportunity here with the Bears wide receivers...particularly Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney.

Fantasy players this impacts: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Marquise Goodwin, and Damiere Byrd 

Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers

Matt Rhule & Joe Brady

The Carolina Panthers' wide receivers struggled against the Philadelphia Eagles this past Sunday, catching just nine passes on 17 targets for 86 receiving yards. After this game, the Carolina Panthers' wide receiver room has totaled 66 receptions (13.2 per game) on 105 targets (21 per game) for 858 receiving yards (171.6 per game) and five receiving touchdowns (one per game) on the season. Looking at this data and comparing it with the Panthers' wide receiver room from a year ago, it seems likely that there is some improvement in receptions, targets, and receiving yards incoming for this group in the coming weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr., Brandon Zylstra, Alex Erickson

Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen

The Philadelphia Eagles' running backs haven't performed up to expectations this year and this past Sunday was no different as they combined for 13 carries, 61 rushing yards, six receptions, eight targets, and 14 receiving yards. After this game, on the season the Philadelphia Eagles' running backs have totaled 69 carries (13.8 per game), 314 rushing yards (62.8 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.4 per game), 32 receptions (6.4 per game), 42 targets (8.4 per game), 238 receiving yards (47.6 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns. There should be better performances ahead for this group, but it might not happen until Week 7 since this week the Eagles' running backs will have a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense.

Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott

Decline Ahead?

A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Denver Broncos Wide Receivers

Pat Shurmur

Last week, the Denver Broncos' wide receivers were on the opposite end of this list after they caught just seven passes on 18 targets for 99 receiving yards against the Baltimore Ravens. This week, they land on the 'Decline Ahead?' side of the equation after they combined for 16 receptions on 26 targets for 214 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. After this game, the Denver Broncos' wide receivers have totaled 63 receptions (12.6 per game), 96 targets (19.2 per game), 855 receiving yards (171 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.8 per game) on the season. Overall, Sunday's performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers was on the higher end of what we should expect from the Denver Broncos' wide receiver room this year, and there could be some slight declines in the season averages coming in the weeks ahead.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler, Diontae Spencer, Kendall Hinton, DaeSean Hamilton

Dallas Cowboys Running Backs

Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receivers

Bruce Arians & Byron Leftwich

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense was humming against the Miami Dolphins this past week, and in particular, the team's wide receivers had a great day combining for 23 receptions on 30 targets for 349 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 88 receptions (17.6 per game), 133 targets (26.6 per game), 1205 receiving yards (241 per game), and nine receiving touchdowns (1.8 per game). While Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich have historically been two of the most WR-friendly coaches in the league, this Buccaneers wide receiver group is still running on the higher end of what we should expect season long.

Fantasy players this impacts: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller

Cleveland Browns Running Backs

Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt

The Cleveland Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Los Angeles Chargers this past week, but on the bright side, the Browns' running back room had a great day where they combined for 33 carries, 222 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, six receptions, seven targets, and 37 receiving yards. On the season, the Cleveland Browns' running backs have now totaled 147 carries (29.4 per game), 827 rushing yards (165.4 per game), nine rushing touchdowns (1.8 per game), 28 receptions (5.6 per game), 33 targets (6.6 per game), 260 receiving yards (52 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.2 per game). While Kevin Stefanski is the king of utilizing his running backs, the season averages are likely to dip slightly as the matchups become a little less favorable in future weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Demetric Felton, and D'Ernest Johnson

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