RADIO
We're talking about fantasy football here, and in fantasy, volume is the key to rostering and fielding a winning team. While everything boils down to that concept, seeking volume calls for looking deeper than just the name and reputation of players. Put a great running back in an RBBC backfield and his volume--and thus his fantasy outcome--will drop without question. The touches and opportunities will go down and with them the chances at scoring fantasy points.
With that in mind, it makes sense to pursue backfields with clear and very well-defined roles. Even if the players in those backfields are not top-tier options, they will get all of the opportunities they can handle, which will ultimately benefit them. Those players might not be that good, but they will compensate for it just on pure volume. And the exact opposite is also true: great ball carriers can rack up points even on low volume, separating themselves from the pack.
Today, I will explore some backfields that enter the 2021 season with a clear option at the No. 1 running back and who is poised to rack up chances on both the rushing and receiving sides of the game. Let's get to it!
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Tennessee Titans (Derrick Henry)
I don't think there is a more obvious pick to start this column other than the Derrick Henry-led Titans backfield. This is nothing new, surprising, or that you weren't already aware of. But it was interesting to think about who to choose to lead the way here. That is because of a simple, data-based reason. To find potential one-man backfields, I calculated the difference in projected PPR points (by PFF numbers) for every player on every team. Turns out Henry is not the rusher with the larger margin above his team's RB2. That'd be Carolina Panther Christian McCaffrey, followed by some other names before Henry's.
The problem with CMC, Saquon Barkley, or (more in his early days) Dalvin Cook is that all of them come with some (at least potential) injury concerns. Derrick Henry? Far from it, folks. Henry has missed just two games in his five-year career, one as a rookie, and the other one in 2019. He's just a freak of a human, has yet to finish a season with fewer than 125 opportunities, and has topped 325 in both the last two seasons. Insane.
If anything has defined the Titans of late, that's been their rushing game led by this monster of a man. Obviously, with Julio Jones now part of the offense, the pass-rush balance might even a bit in 2021, but there is no way Tennessee takes the rock off Henry's hands too much. Don't hesitate to draft Henry with his current ADP of around 5-OVR and RB4. His projection reads 300/1,400/10 with a 25/175/1 receiving line on top of that. All in all, almost 250 PPR points for a man whose prime competition in the backfield will be... Darrynton Evans? Yikes.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Najee Harris)
The Steelers had a glaring need entering the 2021 draft, and they pretty much swept any doubt with their Najee Harris first-round pick. Whether you like the selection or not (because #runningbackssuck and all of that), the truth is that Harris will have Pittsburgh's backfield all for himself to make his personal playground on Sundays.
Harris' projection of 240 PPR points and 299 opportunities is much more compared to Pittsburgh RB2 Benny Snell Jr.'s rather paltry 47 PPR points and 58 opportunities. You read that right. Harris is projected to reach 500% more fantasy points than his main competitor while logging even a higher percentage of opportunities throughout the 2021 season. Boiled down to a simple number, Harris is expected to produce (and be used) five times more than his main partner in crime. No joke.
I'm writing this with Harris' ADP sitting at 15th overall and RB11. The 240-PPR-point projection aligns with that draft position, as PFF ranks him as the upcoming RB11 of the year when all is said and done. The Steelers are loaded when it comes to receiving options but QB Ben Roethlisberger is getting old and the Steelers have a young, clear go-to, super-expensive (in terms of draft capital) rusher ready to put on weekly shows for them. Nothing to hate about Harris' upside/situation or his current ADP if you ask me.
Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Mixon)
Mixon's only blemish in his 2020 season was the fact that he could only stay healthy for a third of the season, playing six of the Bengals' 16 games. Nothing to be too worried about, though, as prior to that he had played at least 14 games in his prior three years as a pro. Mixon is a workhorse, full stop, and he's healthy more often than not. Just for context: in the past four seasons, even while missing 14 games (almost a full season of games, all things considered), Mixon ranks sixth in total opportunities in that span.
While it is true that Mixon hasn't been a true league-winning play at any point in his career (14.5 FPPG on average, only one RB1 finish), the truth is that Cincy has never doubted him and has kept deploying him heavily on a yearly, game-to-game basis. The Bengals brought Samaje Perine to town in 2020 while already having a capable RB2 in now-departed Giovani Bernard. With the latter gone, Perine will take on the secondary role.
The thing with Perine is that he is not a thing. He's entering his fifth season in the NFL but he's never logged 200 opportunities in a single year and when he almost did (back in 2017 with 199), all he could do was finish RB43 while averaging 6.8 FPPG. Meh. Mixon is expensive, but not as much, while other rushers are projected to reach fewer fantasy points over the year. He has an ADP around 19th overall and RB13 while PFF has him projected to the RB9 spot with 241+ PPR points over the full season (including 250+ carries, 1000+ rushing yards, 50 receptions, and 320 receiving yards). Draft. The. Man.
Los Angeles Chargers (Austin Ekeler)
Not only is Ekeler looking like a stud RB1, but the Chargers also have quite a conundrum when it comes to the RB2 role pecking order. Will it be handed to Justin Jackson or to Joshua Kelley? PFF has serious doubts deciding on that question, currently projecting both rushers to 86 and 76 FP, respectively, thanks to virtually similar 110 and 103 opportunities throughout the 2021 season.
Not that we care that much, though, as Ekeler's projection of 273 opportunities for a combined 1400+ total yards (and 70+ receptions) can't look much better. All things considered, the PFF numbers peg Ekeler as the upcoming RB6, an even better rank than his current ADP of RB8 is telling. To outproduce that sky-high price is fantastic, and speaks volumes of Ekeler's talent.
Only CMC has a higher target projection (89 to Ekeler's 87) although both are expected to finish with an equal 72 receptions... and you know about McCaffrey's three-game season last year due to health trouble. Ekeler only played 10 games too, sure, but that's more than three times CMC's playing time already. There might be a few tailbacks capable of outproducing Ekeler when it comes to pure rushing, but he's clearly in tier-one when it comes to pass-catching abilities. A bargain even at his current first-round price.
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