RADIO
Up to this point in the season I've mostly focused on long-term contributors for fantasy outfields. Fantasy playoffs are drawing near, though, so my recommendations will focus on more immediate contributions over the last few weeks of the season.
To that end, schedules are going to play a larger role in my recommendations over the rest of the season. A player with eight games in a week with favorable pitching matchups is preferable to a similar player with fewer games and less favorable matchups, and that is especially important as the end of the season gets closer.
With that in mind, below are some outfielders worth picking up on waivers this week. Roster rates for waiver wire pickups are based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and the cutoff is 50% rostered.
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Shallow-League Pickups
Brad Miller, St. Louis Cardinals
43% rostered
Miller’s rostered rate has shot up since I last wrote about him two weeks ago, and he’s done nothing but reward managers with a .319/.448/.638 slash line. Encouragingly, Miller’s swinging-strike rate continues to stay relatively low at 11.1%, and his hard-hit rate remains high at 50%. Importantly, neither rate has been trending strongly in the wrong direction lately, and his breakout in those categories extends into last season.
If that’s not enough to get you excited about rostering Miller, the Cardinals are slated to play eight games next week. Even with four seven-inning games scheduled, that’s still 64 innings for Miller and other regular Cardinals hitters. Another hitter would require seven full nine-inning games to match that total, giving Miller a significant leg up over non-Cardinals hitters in playing time this week. Combined with his impressive performance and strong underlying numbers, that makes Miller worth rostering in nearly all leagues this week.
Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers
26% rostered
Taylor has been solid all season with a .749 OPS and three stolen bases through his first 38 games, and he is likely to play well this week. The Dodgers are slated to face the Diamondbacks and Astros over five games this week, and stolen bases should be particularly achievable against those teams. The Diamondbacks have allowed more stolen bases than all but one team (the Angels) so far this season, and the Astros have been average in that regard. Further working in Taylor’s favor is that both the Diamondbacks (.342) and Astros (.327) have allowed OBPs higher than the league average mark, so Taylor shouldn’t have much trouble getting on base frequently this week.
In addition to his favorable schedule, it doesn’t hurt that Taylor has been hot lately. It’s an admittedly small sample, but Taylor owns a .375 xwOBA over his last 50 plate appearances, and it’s backed by an increasing hard-hit rate and decreasing swinging-strike rate. All of that makes this a good week to roster Taylor, as he should collect several hits with the opportunity to swipe a couple of bases.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
42% rostered
Riley has been nearly unstoppable recently as he took a 15-game hit streak into Saturday’s game and posted a .357 batting average and 1.068 OPS over those 15 games. Riley’s hot streak has largely been built on a decreased strikeout rate (20% over his last 50 PA), and it’s come with an increase in his z-swing rate and a decrease in his swinging-strike rate.
Also working in Riley’s favor is that he faces the Nationals and Marlins over seven games this week (no doubleheaders), pitching staffs that own a combined 4.68 ERA on the season. That makes Riley worth rostering in most leagues this week.
Deeper-League Pickups
Jay Bruce, Philadelphia Phillies
3% rostered
Bruce has hit well so far this season with a .891 OPS and six home runs over his first 21 games, and he’s an excellent cheap power option on waivers this week. Bruce had a pair of relative down years over the past two seasons, but his hard-hit rate is back up to 50% this season, which bodes well for his home run rate and slugging percentage.
After a mediocre matchup against the Mets on Monday, Bruce and his power have the luxury of a two-game series against a Boston team that’s allowed more home runs per game than any other team in the major leagues this season, and that’s followed up by a four-game set against a Marlins team that hasn’t been much better.
Even better for Bruce is that as much as the Miami pitching staff has struggled to contain home runs against all batters this season, the team has been considerably worse against lefties than righties. All of that bodes well for Bruce’s output this week, and fantasy players looking for power on waivers should target the 33-year-old.
Manuel Margot, Tampa Bay Rays
5% rostered
I wrote about Margot’s hot streak this season last week and he remains an attractive waiver add this week even after he’s cooled off somewhat. Luck aside, Margot’s breakout has largely been fueled by improved contact quality, and his .376 xwOBAcon is still a career-high and more than 30 points above his career average.
More exciting is that Margot and the Rays enjoy a ridiculously desirable schedule this week. The Rays get two games against the Nationals before playing four against the Red Sox, two of the worst pitching staffs in baseball this season. The Nationals own a 5.24 team ERA (fifth-worst in MLB), and the Red Sox has been even worse with a 6.06 team ERA that is 0.41 points higher than the second-worst team’s (Colorado) mark. That makes Margot well worth rostering in deeper leagues this week.
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Tampa Bay Rays
9% rostered
Tsutsugo has been red-hot recently with a 1.466 OPS in his last eight games, and, it’s hard to ignore Tsutsugo with Tampa Bay’s schedule this week. As I mentioned when recommending Margot, the Rays get six games against two of the worst pitching staffs in baseball this week, giving Tsutsugo a good chance to keep his hot streak going.
Tsutsugo’s recent strong play has largely been driven by a depressed strikeout rate and an elevated walk rate, and his season-best 18% strikeout rate (50 PA rolling average) is close to his deserved rate given his 7.8% swinging-strike rate. Tsutsugo’s walk rate (22% over his last 50 PA) is likely to drop somewhat, but his 19.5% o-swing rate suggests that an elevated walk rate is largely sustainable as well. Combined with his easy schedule, Tsutsugo’s strong play makes him worth a look in deeper leagues this week.
Quick Hits
Miguel Andujar (OF - NYY) - 16% rostered
Yankees third baseman Gio Urshela landed on the injured list last week, opening up what should be close to everyday playing time for Andujar. Andujar has struggled so far this season while being shuttled between the team’s alternate site and the major league roster, but he posted a .855 OPS in his last full season and should be on the radar of fantasy players as a result.
Nick Senzel (OF - CIN) - 38% rostered
Senzel has been sidelined since August 19 with what seems like a positive coronavirus test, but he’s been working out at Cincinnati’s alternate site and appears likely to rejoin the team sometime this week. Senzel has been solid if somewhat underwhelming with a .816 OPS over 14 games this season, but fantasy managers should keep him in mind as he nears his return.
Oscar Mercado (OF - CLE) - 35% rostered
Mercado was optioned to Cleveland’s alternate site earlier this season after a disastrous .111/.167/.111 start to the season (17 games), but he rejoined the major league team on August 31. Fantasy players shouldn’t rely on 17 poor games to write a batter off, making Mercado worth looking into.
Marwin Gonzalez (1B/2B/3B/OF - MIN) - 6% rostered
It looked like Gonzalez was going to lose playing time with third baseman Josh Donaldson returning from the injured list, but then outfielder Max Kepler landed on the IL. Gonzalez should see close to everyday playing time for the foreseeable future as a result, boosting his fantasy value.
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