RADIO
Identifying the risers/fallers, worthwhile rookies, sleepers and potential busts are all key components for your draft strategy. Evaluating a player’s average draft position (ADP) involves comparing that player to the other options being selected around him. The players listed below aren’t guys I would suggest avoiding altogether necessarily; rather, I'd pass on them where they are currently being drafted and hope they slide a bit further down in your draft.
Overvalued NFL Wide Receivers & ADPs
In this article, we look around the NFL and provide analysis on some 2014 fantasy football overvalued wide receivers. As we make our way through the first three weeks of NFL preseason play, below are some wide receivers to consider avoiding on fantasy football draft day. We’ve considered these WRs overvalued because you'll have to pay a lot of them, even in PPR leagues, and they might not return any profit compared to other players being drafted in similar rounds.
DeSean Jackson, WR - Washington Redskins
When the Redskins acquired DeSean Jackson fresh off of his huge year with Philadelphia, many fantasy owners went wide-eyed at the prospect of a shiny new toy to play with. While DeSean is certainly a talented receiver coming off a big season, I’m a bit skeptical of elevating him right back into fantasy stardom on his new team.
Some have suggested that the Jackson signing would hinder Pierre Garcon’s value, but I would argue those claims have been exaggerated. Sure, Jackson will take away some of Garcon’s targets, but Garcon led the league with 184 in 2013. It’s not like those targets will suddenly be cut in half due to Jackson's presence; that’s just not how that works.
New head coach Jay Gruden has a history of being a rather pass-happy play caller, so Garcon will certainly get his, and I’m sure DeSean will, as well. I just can’t justify taking a guy like DeSean-- who is fairly big-play dependent-- in the fifth round, especially when the receiver playing opposite him is going to be the team’s possession receiver. DeSean is currently being drafted over the likes of Victor Cruz and Michael Crabtree-- guys who are the clear number one receiver on their respective teams. I would gladly take either of those two guys over DeSean Jackson, especially in a point-per-reception league.
Avoid at Current ADP of 52; target Percy Harvin, Michael Floyd, Michael Crabtree instead
Jeremy Maclin, WR - Philadelphia Eagles
![By Keith Lovett aka Wigstruck on Flickr [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons](http://dev.rotoballer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Jeremy-Maclin-Philadelphia-Eagles.jpg)
Jeremy Maclin’s current ADP of the late-seventh round is simply mind boggling to me. Not only did Maclin fail to play a down last season, but he has a history of injury problems and is already dealing with a hamstring issue.
That doesn’t even address the fact that Riley Cooper actually had the best rapport with quarterback Nick Foles last year, yet he’s going a full three rounds later. I’m not suggesting Cooper is a legitimate breakout candidate but I would much rather draft Cooper with his 10th-11th round value over Maclin in the seventh.
There is simply no way for us to know which receiver will be the primary pass catcher in Philadelphia this year, so I just can’t wrap my head around why there is a such a distinct difference in ADP between the two. If Maclin were going in the same round as Cooper, I would have no issue with someone arguing that Maclin is the preferred receiver of the two, but the three-round discrepancy between them seems entirely unwarranted.
Avoid at Current ADP of 75; target Marques Colston, Torrey Smith, Julian Edelman instead
Golden Tate, WR - Detroit Lions
I’ll admit that I jumped on the Golden Tate bandwagon when he initially signed with Detroit, but I have since rethought my position. The case for Tate has been that a receiver opposite Calvin Johnson will benefit from the double- and triple-teams that Megatron draws. It’s entirely possible that Tate’s value will be solely dependent on that, though, which is kind of worrisome. You would basically be putting all your faith in the defense overcompensating for Calvin Johnson, rather than selecting a guy for any kind of talent that he possesses in his own right.
If that’s all it took, then some other Detroit receiver not named Calvin Johnson would have been a fantasy star by now. Tate isn’t being overdrafted all that much; this is more of a warning label to temper your expectations if you’re viewing him as a guy with major upside. He has upside, for sure, but not nearly as much as you might think. I'd prefer to take a chance on a bounceback year for Mike Wallace or the emergence of Kendall Wright over Golden Tate’s presumed opportunity in Detroit.
Avoid at Current ADP of 87; target Mike Wallace, Kendall Wright, Reggie Wayne instead
Steve Smith, WR Baltimore Ravens
Did I miss the memo where the Baltimore Ravens suddenly became an air-it-out offense? This may sound like a nitpicky type of player to warn against, especially considering that Steve Smith is going fairly late, but at that point in your draft you should be looking for upside more than a big name. A 35-year-old Steve Smith on a Ravens team that has barely been able to support one fantasy-relevant receiver (let alone two) is something I want no part of.
I’m sure there will be a week or two where Steve Smith goes for 150 yards with two touchdowns, but rostering him assumes you know exactly when those weeks will occur. You’re never going to know in advance when Steve Smith will be worth starting and when he’s not even worth a roster spot. The Ravens simply do not have a good enough offense to support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers, and Torrey Smith is the primary target.
Avoid at Current ADP of 145; target Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, Justin Hunter instead
If any of these players were to fall a couple rounds, you should feel more comfortable drafting them. But at their current ADP, you'll be much better off owning one of the other players we recommended here.
