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Every year, fantasy owners look to make bold gambles in the draft in hopes of looking back on a championship squad of unlikely heroes. This is especially prevalent in regards to the wide receiver position. Rather than worrying about building a consistent roster of proven producers, the risk-takers of the world prefer to search for imaginary upside. Of course, this is the nature of the draft. At certain points, one must take gambles to avoid mediocrity.
This year, the ADP of wide receivers actually seems pretty sound to me. There are no glaring errors. Nobody is being drafted at insanely inappropriate times, as has happened in years past. Still, many receivers are ranked based on "high-ceiling" capabilities, even though there are clear indicators of decline or disappointment. Let's take a look at some overvalued wide-outs who are being drafted too early in 2015.
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Overvalued NFL Wide Receivers & ADPs
T.Y. Hilton - WR, Indianapolis Colts
Hilton was a fantasy monster in 2014, racking up 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns on 82 receptions. He's one of the league's top speed threats, using his outstanding burst to break free from defenders. He thrived last year as Reggie Wayne's production plummeted, but I'm concerned he won't be able to maintain that success in 2015. The arrivals of aging superstar Andre Johnson and rookie Phillip Dorsett in addition to the presence of Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener mean that there are a lot more relevant mouths to take targets from Hilton than there were in 2014.
I don't see how he can repeat last year's yardage totals, even if it is Andrew Luck spreading the ball around. I still have Hilton as a low-end WR1, but I don't want him in the second round over guys like Alshon Jeffery, Mark Ingram, Lamar Miller or Mike Evans.
Golden Tate - WR, Detroit Lions
Tate is coming off the board as right around the 20th wide receiver in most platforms, which is surprisingly high to me for several reasons. The most significant is the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson. Megatron was either a decoy or didn't play in Weeks 4-8, and that was when Tate did a majority of his damage last year. Of his 1,331 receiving yards, 45% of them came during those weeks. He had four total touchdowns in 2014, and three of them came in that time span as well.
Tate's ADP reveals that much of the fantasy community is underestimating the impact that a healthy Megatron has on the Lions passing attack. Matthew Stafford looks to him early and often, often and early. Once Johnson was back to full strength (Week 10), he had 198 more receiving yards than Tate and hauled in six touchdowns to Tate's 1. Drafters shouldn't forget about the possible emergence of Eric Ebron, and the fact that both Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah can catch passes. Tate's ceiling is probably 800 yards and four touchdowns, which is solid but certainly doesn't put him anywhere near WR20.
Jarvis Landry - WR, Miami Dolphins
Jarvis Landry had a quietly successful rookie season from a PPR perspective, hauling in 84 passes for a modest 758 yards. That second number is the one that scares me--Landry only averaged nine yards per reception, and I'm afraid he's going to repeat that style of play in 2015. The Dolphins now have more mouths to feed, having brought in veteran Greg Jennings, deep threat Kenny Stills, and field-stretching tight end Jordan Cameron.
Between those three and stud rookie DeVante Parker, there may not be enough love for Landry to justify his top-30 wide receiver ADP. While Landry did find the end zone five times in 2014, I don't know that he can match that total with so many other options. I have Parker pegged for this season's Odell Beckham, Jr., and while Landry might be the number two option, he won't do enough to waste a pick in the sixth or seventh round, where he's currently going.
Michael Floyd - WR, Arizona Cardinals
As of this writing, Floyd is currently being drafted ahead of John Brown, which is absolutely mind-boggling to me. Brown is just about everyone's pick to break out this season, and with good reason. He plays like T.Y. Hilton, relying on speed and great hands to make plays. He's recently bulked up a bit and should see his usage both in the middle of the field and on the deep ball increase with Carson Palmer back under center.
Floyd on the other hand is almost primarily a deep threat, and had a boom or bust 2014. In 14 starts, Floyd had three games with 100+ receiving yards and 10 with 55 yards or fewer. I don't want any part of that sort of inconsistency, particularly when I'll have to take him ahead of guys like Brown, Steve Smith, Devin Funchess and the aforementioned DeVante Parker. His 9th-round ADP is far too rich for my blood, and I won't own him in any leagues where he goes that high.
Roddy White - WR, Atlanta Falcons
White is currently going in the 8th/9th round in most formats, which puts him the WR3/flex conversation. This isn't terrible ADP-wise, but I won't own him at any point this season. White did have a fairly solid 2014 campaign, in which he caught 80 passes for 921 yards and seven touchdowns. He once again struggled with health though, often remaining questionable to play right up until game time, and missing two games completely. Before last season, White had seen his reception total decrease in each of the last four seasons, due in large part to health concerns.
I don't trust his knees to hold up for much longer, and he'll be 34 by the time the season ends. Also, this is Julio Jones' team now, and he's the one who'll be peppered with targets instead of White. Reports from Falcons camp have Leonard Hankerson performing particularly well, and he will likely steal some looks from Rowdy Roddy over the course of the season. Ultimately, I can think of many more players I'd rather have going right around where he is, particularly Martavis Bryant and Larry Fitzgerald.
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